This is our last Churchill Downs day. Next weekend we will be at Belmont and in 6 short weeks, Saratoga! We did VERY well yesterday at Churchill Downs. Seven winners, four exactas and a very nice triple.
Here we go…..pay attention to weather. This is a dry track. It better be dry after 4 hours of this write up.
- 1 – EXTRA EFFORT – Garcia/Catalano. Second time out. Horse was bottled up and had room late and came full of run. Better trip today will have this one in the mix.
- 5 – BRITTLE AND YOO – Castellaon/Cox. Second race of career. Decent 65 Beyer in debut coming late to get third.
- 7 – OUR SECRET AGENT – Geroux/Casse. Second race off the layoff. Came in second with a 66 Beyer. MAJOR WIN THREAT!
- 3 – OPERATIC – Mena/Barkley. Deep closer who will be flying late. Use in all wagers.
- 6 – SEEDS OF TIME – Graham/Amoss. Big drop in class. Horse can rate and close. 3/3 in money at track. 4/6 at distance.
- 8 – MONGOLIAN HUMOR – Geroux/Miller. Peter Miller has this drop in class horse who stretches out. Throw out his last race. Horse was pulled. Prior to that he did well.
Race 3 – TURF
- 1 – BASTET – Rosario/Mott. Mott does not rush his horses, but I would use this horse. Well bred out of CIARO PRINCE. May want to put this one down for future races. Easy on the wager.
- 4 – ELLE M'A SOURI – Gaffalione/DeVaux. If you have been following; Gaffalione has been lethal on all turf races. Third race of form cycle. Threw rider in return, came in second next out.
- 5 – MESSINA – Johnny V/Pletcher. Paid $825,000 for this horse. Blinkers added is key. Third race of cycle.
- 12 – FLYING COLORS – Castellano/Motion. Motion has been very good here on turf. Horse is second off the layoff (2018). Came in second in return, adds blinkes. Major win threat.
- 1 – ITS MY BAG BABY – Castellano/Cox. These two have not been hot of late, but horse cuts back to 6f after trying 1 mile. Won at 6 furlongs 2 back.
- 5 – CREEKMORE – Rosario/Moqutte. Huge drop in class (80k ro 20K) third race of form cycle. Throw out last race in the slop.
- 6 – IMPROBABLE STORY – Leon/Rider. Speed horse who is second off the layoff. Broke maiden on a fast dry track four back since then he has had all weather track and slop. Underlay!
Tough maiden race!
- 1 – CHILI NELSON – Bejarano/ Sims. Sims has two horses in here. This one is a first time out horse who gets the rail. He breaks bad and gets dirt in the face it is over, but shows nice works for debut.
- 6 – DIGITAL STAR – Gaffalione/Catalano. Horse has been in top three last four races. Drops to lowest level yet to get maiden win. Major player.
- 10 – WHY WHY PAUL WHY – Burke/Demeritte. Horse is probably meant for turf, but ARCH horses do well on dirt. Use in all wagers at a good price.
- 12 – FORBETTERORWORSE – Lanarie/Sims. First race off the layoff. Only using for the leading rider in Lanarie. Not mutch handicapping here.
Race 6 – TURF
- 6 – NOBLE ORDER – Geroux/Cox. Second race off the maiden win. Face open company at 50k last race. Crowded and broke through to get 4 late. Clean trip and he will be tough.
- 10 – TIESTO – Rosario/Mott. Lethal combo who are second off the layoff. Drops from Grade 3 level to this. MOST LIKELY TO WIN
- 11 – TABLED – Jose Ortiz/Stidman. Stidman was red hot at one point. Horse has been top two last three races and shows huge works for this.
- 12 – ANGELUS WARRIOR – Gaffalione/Maker. Maker is lethal with claims and or barn changes and putting them on turf. He gets Gaffalione in the saddle and a stretch out for a closer.
- BOX ALL FOUR ABOVE IN EXACTAS AND TRIPLES!!!
Race 7 – THE WINNING COLORS – Grade 3
Not an easy race to handicap. Will be a heavy favorite.
- 2 – BREAK EVEN – Rosario/Cox. Does 6 furlongs in 1:09 consistently and comes in top 2. Loves this distance. Major player
- 4 – BELLS THE ONE – Lanarie/Passin. Rule of thumb; if you have three horses who can go to the lead you may have a speed duel, you get FOUR and you are certain. Always take a closer. This is the lone closer in this field and you get the leading jockey who had ridden this horse to two wins and two places finishes before. Also second off the layoff (LONG SHOT OF DAY)
- 7 – SPICED PERFECTION – Castellano/Casse. CLass of the field race wise. Been in Graded stakes races last eight. 3/3 at distance.
- 8 – MIA MISCHIEF – Santana/Asmussen. Bet this horse last two races and won. Hose won three in an row, but now faces toughest competition. She will be pressed all the way. She wins and she deserves it.
- 3 – MAU MAU – Rosario/Mott. Second time out. Huge closer and should get a set up in this maiden race.
- 7 – BEAR ALLEY – Talamo/Romans. I almost overlooked this horse. Goes turf to dirt at same distance. Will no doubt have the stamina to be there. Top 3.
- 8 – OCEANIC – Graham/Blair. Another second time out horse, This one is the speed of the speed. I like the sprint to route angel here. Always a good try.
- 9 – ASHIHAM – Johnny V/Pletcher. I have had this horse in my virtual stable since last race. He was rail pinned and came out wide and finished strong for second. Blinkers added. Majot win threat. ( this would be my other most likely to win)
Race 9 – TURF
- 1 – QUEEN OF SHADES – Johnny V/Cox. Horse has been first or second last 4 races. Second off the layoff. Top 3
- 5 – I'LL HANDLETHECASH – Beschizza/Handal. I had this horse in my virtual stable. I would prefer another jockey on him. He has an awful trip in return off the layoff. Exotics for price. Dont have the balls to say win.
- 8 – CARDAMON – Garcia/Mott. Second race off the layoff., first try turf. Well bred horse takes to turf and he wins. Thats an if. This may be a turf to dirt effort. Keep an eye on.
- 11 – DIXIEINCANDYLAND – Rosario/Kenneally. Third race of form cycle. Beyers get better and better. Been in top three last four races. 5/5 at distance.
- 13 – HIDDEN FACTS – This one gets in, use in all wagers.
I think this is a two horse race, but hopping for a long shot with them.
- 3 – TWELFTH LABOUR – Talamo/Stewart. King of the long shots. Goes from career sprint racer to a route. Horse has closed in each race. Now goes long. Worth a shot. Never know with Dallas Stewart.
- 7 – FEARLESS – Johnny V/Pletcher. Huge closer who should get the pace to close into. I think he is top two.
- 8 – TOP SEED – Lanarie/McGaughey. Steps way up in class, but goes sprint to route. Always a good angle and you have a soft handed leading rider. Out of ORB who can run all day.
- 10 – GUN IT – Rosario/Asmussen. Class of the field race wise having run in Graded company last three. Nice rate and close horse with solid works coming in.
Race 11 – THE OLD FORESTER MINT JULIP – Grade 3
- 1 – JULIET FOXTROT – Geroux/Cox. Major combo. Horse has never been out of top 3 since coming to the states. First off the layoff, but on turf I am not concerned.
- 2 – BEAU RECALL – Bridgemohan/Cox, Career best Beyer at this track. (103). Was only try on this course. Grade 2 race. First race off the layoff. Hard to figure out.
- 5 – LA SIGNARE – Santana/Walsh. Another virtual stable horse. This horse does everything but win. He will be a huge price. Monster closer. Must use in all exotics wagers.
- 6 – NAY LADY NAY – Jose Ortiz/Brown. First off the layoff. Been in top 2 in every race, but maiden race. Nice closing kick. Must use in all wagers.
- 8 – ALTEA – Rosario/Brown. This is my horse. Deep closer who has gotten second last two races. Third race off the layoff. Last race was bumped and pushed. Should really have won. This horse will not lose this race. Rosario will be coming late, just watch.
- Top 3 – 1, 6, 8
Best PICK 3 sequence.. The key to this PICK 3 is beating MIA MISCHIEF in race 7. I did include her just in case, but I think she is vulnerable and that blows up the PICK 3 if she loses.
- Race 6 – 7, 10, 11, 12
- Race 7 – 4, 7, 8
- Race 8 – 4, 7, 9
This has potential to pay huge today. I can see some big prices coming in. I can single a horse in one race and go deep in others.
- Race 8 – 3, 4, 7, 8, 9
- Race 9 – 1, 5, 6, 8, 11
- Race 10 – 3, 7, 8 10
- Race 11 – 8
Alternate PICK 4
- Race 8 – 9
- Race 9 – 1, 5, 6, 8, 11
- Race 10 – 22.214.171.124
- Race 11 – 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 11
Good luck and thanks for horse racing with Dietz!