Horse Racing Picks by Dietz for Gulfstream Park – Florida Derby Day on Saturday, March 30, 2019
Gulfstream Park – Saturday, March 30, 2019
Today is the biggest day of racing at Gulfstream Park. Last year there was over 41 million dollars wagered on this day. The feature race is The Florida Derby.
This is one of the major prep races for the Kentucky Derby. The winner earns 100 points and is guaranteed a postposition in the race.
Along with the Florida Derby, there are several other graded stakes races on the race card including The Gulfstream Park Oaks, The American and The Gulfstream Park Mile.
A few things you may want to pay attention to today is the jockey race between Irad Ortiz and Saez. These two are neck and neck for riding title. This is also a showcase day for the big trainers. I expect Todd Pletcher to have a win or two or three as well as Chad Brown, both have entries in at least five races.
There is also a mandatory Rainbow Pick 6 payout today. They did not make this easy with a maiden race containing a full field of 14 horses.
Race 4 – Gulfstream Park Mile – Grade 2
TALE OF SILENCE – Franco rides for Tagg. This horse is second off the layoff with a solid 92 Beyer last out in a Grade 3. He is 4 of 5 in the money at the distance and should be rolling late.
BE GONE DADDY – Saez rides for Vitali. Bullet work, 1 of 13 leading up. Stepping up in class here, but his numbers are comparable to the others. Use in exotics.
PRINCE LUCKY – Pletcher/Johnny V combo. The horse is second off the layoff with a whopping 106 Beyer last out in the Grade 3 Hals Hope on this track. Legit win. Could single this horse in the early Pick 4.
MARQUEE PRINCE – Castellano/Cox combo. Winner of two in a row with solid Beyer’s of 80 and 85. He will be rating and closing. Trainer hits at 26% dirt to turf horses.
ART G IS BACK – My price play here. Gaffalione rides on the turf for another horse that will be closing. Rider had him in the pace last race, so he knows what he has to work with. Exotics.
SEISMIC WAVE – Irad/Mott combo. This horse broke its maiden last race, always tough going up against winners off a maiden victory. Mott is having a good meet and he has Irad in the saddle. The horse is also out of TAPIT. Worth a shot in exotics.
A BIT SPECIAL – Leparoux rides for Patrick Bianconi. I prefer this jockey on the outside post position. He will have to break well. Winner of 4 of 5 career races including a Grade 3 last out. Legit win horse.
TRENCHTOWN CAT – Irad rides another maiden horse going up against winners. He will be up against it, I am leaning in other directions.
LA AUSTRALIANA – Joe Bravo rides this maiden horse. He had a solid 70 Beyer in career debut closing late to get third. They paid extra to get this horse in this race, must be for a reason.
POSITIVE SKEW – Chad Brown/Castellano on grass. The third race of the form cycle for this horse. Can’t ignore this combo on a big day like this.
Race 8 – GULFSTREAM PARK OAKS – Grade 2
POINT OF HONOR – Castellano/Weaver combo. The third race of the form cycle with solid 82 Beyer last out in a 100k race.
DUNBAR ROAD – Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz combo. The horse broke his maiden first time out. Paid $350,000 for this horse who won by 8 lengths in debut. The combo is lethal.
COOKIE DOUGH – Stanley Gold/Sanchez combo. The horse came in a Grade 2 race last out. He is the speed of the speed in here and will look to go wire to wire. Here is the thing, he jumped 22 points for a career-best 90 Beyer last out, but that was off the layoff so the bounce is not a concern. Legit win threat.
VALEDICTORIAN – Gaffalione rides for Kelly Breen. The horse is running at his best distance. Had been in the money 10 of last 11, winning 5 of those. He will be looking to be out front and holding on. More exotics than win.
TOO CHARMING – Castellano/ALbertrani. The horse comes in well rested and winner of two in a row. He will have to step it up against this group, not a winner but exotics.
PROCTORS LEDGE – In a race full of front-runners, I am using this late closer. Johnny V rides this battle-tested horse who has run in nothing but Graded Stakes races last two years. Bullet work leading up 1 of 53.
Race 13 – THE PAN AMERICAN – Grade 2
FOCUS GROUP – Chad Brown/Irad Oritz combo. The horse is two for two at this 1 ½ mile distance. He is well rested and Chad has his horses ready on the turf. Legit win threat.
CANESSAR – French invader comes in second off the layoff having produced a solid 92 last out. Prior to last race, he has two consecutive 100 Beyer’s. Lynch was the rider for both. Exotics.
SOGLIO – Horse is 4 of 5 in the money at the distance and has been in the money 10 of 12 career races. Solid work, 22 of 100 coming in. He is stepping up in class just a bit, but numbers have him in the mix.
BIGGER PICTURE – Gaffalione rides for Maker. These two are legit together and this horse is the class of the field having raced in nothing but Graded Stakes for last 2 years including Grade 3 last out. He is also 9 of 12 in the money at this distance. I like the jockey on the turf.
Race 14 – THE EXPRESSBET FLORIDA DERBY – Grade 1
This is the big race. The winner is in the Kentucky Derby. Only one Derby prep race has had a favorite win this year. The next few weeks we have the bigger prep races for the derby. It will be interesting to see if there will be a standout horse.
HIDDEN SCROLL – Castellano/Mott combo. A lightly raced horse who broke its maiden in the slop winning by 14, then was rank last race in the Fountain of Youth fading in the end to get 4th. That caused a rider switch from Rosario to Castellano. He is the speed of the speed of the speed in this race. Hard to ignore the numbers on paper, but you have to run the race. Exotics.
CURRENT – Pletcher/Franco combo. Paid $725,000 for this beauty out of Curlin. Horse goes from turf to dirt, but regardless, his numbers are well below the others in here. Not using.
HARVEY WALLBANGER – Brian Hernandez Jr/McPeek combo. Winner of the Holy Bull stakes is a deep closer. The horse has never been worse than second in 5 career starts. Bullet work 1 of 100 leading up. He should get the speed duel up front to set his closing kick. Use in all wagers.
BOURBON WAR – Irad rides for Henning. Horse’s numbers are moving steadily up, just as you want; 83, 89 and 93 last out getting second in the Fountain of Youth. He will be rating and closing late. Major threat to win.
EVERFAST – Lost to several of these before. Not using at all.
HARD BELLE – Front-runner going two turns for the first time. Throw out.
MAXIMUM SECURITY – Saez/Servis combo. The horse won by 18 lengths last out, yes 18!! Produced a 102 Beyer in that optional claiming race. He has won three in a row by a combined margin of 37 ½ lengths. Here is the deal… jumped 19 points last race. I see a bounce coming. Use with caution.
BODEXPRESS – Solid 92 Beyer last out, but that was his maiden race. He has yet to break his maiden. It will not happen here. Throw out.
CODE OF HONOR – Johnny v/McGaughey combo. Solid 95 Beyer last out in winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He has the perfect rate and closing kick you need to win. Bullet work, 1 of 12 coming into the race. Legit win horse.
UNIONS DESTINY – Lost to a few of these horses before, but has shown grit. Was very wide in the Fountain of Youth and faded in the end. I better trip could land this one in deep exotics. I would like to see a rider change if this one shows some interest I the stretch.
GARTER AND TIE – Not a chance.