Horse Racing Betting Tips for Keeneland by Dietz- Saturday, July 11, 2020

by Dietz | July 10, 2020 |

Big card today at Keeneland. Very good horses and some big races.

Race 4 – APPALACHIAN STAKES – Grade 2 – Turf

  • EVIL LYN – Gaffalione/Maker. Maker is lethal off the claim and taking horses to turf. Stepping up on class, but Maker did this for a reason. Rider really helps.  Think she comes rolling late.
  • ALMS – Rosario/Stidman. Only reason I take this horse is trainer. He has been red hot the past two weeks. Have to use in all wagers.
  • WALK IN MARRAKESH – Jose Ortiz/Correa. Horse came in second three back in a Grade 3.  Last two trips were awful. Jose sticks and gets outside post.  Leaning to win!

Race 5 – THE MADISON – Grade 1 – Dirt

  • SALLYS CURLIN – Talamo/Romans. Second race off the layoff, winning last out by 3 in Grade 3.  Horse will be in fine form and closing late. Picks up a Talamo and that could help.
  • GUARANA – Jose Ortiz/Brown. Another second race off the layoff, won last race on front end pulling away under a complete hand ride to win by 5+. Major win threat.
  • MIA MISCHIEF – Santana/Asmussen. This is a beautiful horse, but is facing very tough competition.  She does not do well in higher competition. Exotics only.
  • BELL'S THE ONE – Lanerie/Pessin. Horse and rider have and excellent repour.  Two wins at Keeneland and third race of the form cycle has this on my radar. Ran 7 furlongs in 1:22 to win last year and did 6 furlongs in 1:08 last out. Major threat at what I hope is a nice price.

Race 6 – THE SHAKERTOWN – Grade 2 – Turf

This is going to be a great race. Full field and some good horses. This one could produce big prices. This race is loaded with speed. Who has the best stamina after 5 furlongs is who I am looking at.

  • REAL NEWS – Hernandez/Albert Stall Jr. Third race of the form cycle. Ran 5 furlongs in .57 last out and came closing for 4th after blowing turn.  Clean trip makes this one legit.
  • TELL YOUR DADDY – Graham/Pessin. Stepping way up in class, but this is the lone closer and cuts back to 5F showing promises after route races. Not doubt this one has stamina. Closing late.
  • BOUND FOR NOWHERE – Garcia/Ward. Second race off the layoff, came in second last out after poor start. WIll be on the front end, but will have company. Have to hold on. Not the winner, but exotics.
  • LEINSTER – Gaffalione/Arnold. Second race off the layoff. Can rate and close. Gaffalione knows this horse well. I see top 3 with ease.

Race 7 – THE CENTRAL BANK ASHLAND – Grade 1 – Dirt

Top three earn Kentucky Oaks points. 

  • VENETIAN HARBOR – Rosario/Baltas.  Won at Santa Anita in Feb. by 11, then placed second at Oaklawn next out. This is the front end runner and could steel this. Major win.
  • BONNY SOUTH – Johnny V/Cox.  Cox will want this one. Rate and closer who has 2 wins in three starts including the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks last out.
  • SPEECH – Castellano/McCarthy. Never been out of the money in six careers starts. Can rate and close with ease. If a speed duel occurs with the previous two, this one will pick it up late.

Race 8 – THE COOLMORE JENNY WILEY – Grade 1 – Turf

  • SECRET MESSAGE – Johnny V/Motion. Class of field having run in Grade 1 races and Grade 2 most of career. Nipped out LA SIGNARE last race to win. Must use in all wagers. Top 2!
  • LA SIGNARE – Santana/Walsh. Virtual stable horse that has done well for me.  Big closer. Running late. Top 3
  • RUSHING FALL – Castellano/Brown. Monster horse who is second off the layoff winning last race at Belmont. 103 Beyer and improvement make this horse a major win threat.
  • ALTEA – Roario/Brown. What is a major turf race without Chad Brown. This one is also second off the layoff, but has had hard time winning. Rolling late for sure and the outside post will help. Use in all wagers.

Race 9 – THE TOYOTA BLUE GRASS – Grade 2

Kentucky Derby points on the line here.

  • MAN IN THE CAN – Gaffalione/Moquette.  Horse goes from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 winning all. He likes the stretch out and have no issues with distance. Concern is the 87 Beyer not increasing. 
  • SWISS SKYDIVER – Money Mike Smith/McPeek. Should be the favorite. Winner of 3 in a row all graded stakes.  Major win threat and deserves it.
  • RUSHIE – Castellano/McCarthy. Goes from 6 furlongs to 1 mile, to 1 1/16 to 1 1/8……….. Came in third in SA Derby last out. Beyers go up nicely. Will be sitting just off the lead waiting to run late.
  • TIESTO – Prat/Mott. Third race of form cycle. Have to step it up against other in here, but goes turf to dirt. Stamina will not be an issue. Exotics at a nice price.

PICK 4 – Races 7-10

  • Race 7 – 6, 2,3
  • Race 8 – 4
  • Race 9 – 5, 7, 10, 13
  • Race 10 – 5, 6, 7, 10

Good luck and thanks for horse racing with Dietz!   See you all for Saratoga!

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