Dietz’s Horse Racing Picks for Oaklawn Park on Saturday, May 2, 2020

by Dietz | May 1, 2020 |

Handicapping Saturdays card at Oaklawn Park right now.  Today's (Friday) post time is still a few hours away.   Check the website, I may also do Gulfstream Park today.   Pay attention to Stogie, he does better than I do at Oaklawn Park. If you follow me you know i prefer turf races over dirt, and Oaklawn Park has not turf racing.

Here we go..

Race 1 

Not an easy race off the bat. I see bomb potential.

  • 2 – FULL OF GRACE
  • 7 – FIRST ALTERNATE – 9/11 in money at track. 1:10  six furlong is his consistent speed. Thats good here. Exotics.
  • 10 – TRUE CASTLE – Horse ran twice in April, gets claimed after both races. Stepping up in class

Race 2 

Maiden beauty

  • 1 – SHE'S THE BOSS – Only second time runner in the field. Traffic trouble first out. I always say a second time out horse has an advantage over first timers.
  • 6 – SCOLDING – Asmussen/Santana
  • 8 – TAKE CHARGE GLENDA – Dallas Stewart gets a TAPIT offspring. I will watch this horse closely and possibly put it in my virtual stable for second time out at a longer race.
  • 10 – BONUS BABY – Jermiah Engleheart specializes in sprints. He had going on Friday. I will see how that horse did.

Race 3 

  • 2  – CAPTAIN DON – no speed in this race, this one may steal it on front end.
  • 10 – CALL ME DERBY – Stepping up in class huge, but has won three in a row since coming off the layoff.
  • 12 – MY GOLDEN DIABLO – Not a fan of maiden winners up against more experienced horses, but this grey horse has been much better since coming back from an June layoff.

Race 4 

Maiden race

  • 7 – MAJOR ATTRACTION – paid $425,000 for this horse, third career start.
  • 8 – JZ MY MAN – Son of AMERICAN PHAROAH and barn change.
  • 11 – BANK – Asmussen/Santana-  enough said!

Race 5 

Tough race again!

  • 3 – RATED R SUPERSTAR – Loves the distance and will be closing late!!
  • 9 – BANKIT – Asmussen/Santana.
  • 11 – ENDORSED – Barn changen to Mott. Deep closer. Third race of the form cycle. Horse ran in the Travers' Stakes this Summer.  distance is no issue.

Race 6 

  • 2 – SECOND LINE DAVID – Joe Sharp first off the claim.
  • 4 – FRIARS ROAD – Second off the layoff.  Red hot rider. (MOST LIKELY TO WIN)
  • 10 – RONG OF FIRE – Geroux on his home track second time out horse.
  • 11 –  ABSOLUTE  UNIT – Only reason I am putting this horse here is because of the trainer Peter Euroton, maybe his daughter Brittany will jump up and down on TVG for us.  Smoke show!
  • 14 – DIVINE ARMOR – (this one gets in, use him, this one gets in it affects my MY MOST LIKELY TO WIN. major threat)

Race 7 

  • 7 – KISS THE GIRL – Santana/Asmussen. Interesting horse, only career race on a dry track was maiden win. 4 races in slop after. Sprint to route on a first time dry track.  Interesting.
  • 8 – GAMINE – Baffert horse, broke maiden with ease by a hand ride. Shows off the chart works for return on the stretch out. 1/55, 4/96
  • 10 – SPEECH – Third race of form cycle. Ran in Grade 3 level last out.

Race 8 

I see this race as pretty formfull.  Favorites.

  • 5 – FRA MAURO
  • 7 – CARIBBEAN _ Broke maiden three back winning my 11 lengths. Gets claimed, comes in second next race, gets claimed again, then wins next race by almost 10 going wire to wire. use in all wagers.
  • 10 – MORETTI

Race 9 

  • 1 – POPULAR KID – Rail trip will help. 3/3 at track, 7/10 at distance with 5 wins.
  • 3 – FEARLESS – johnny v/Pletcher. Rate and close. Solid 88 Beyer last race.  Top 2
  • 7 – ROTATION – Second off the layoff with a 90 Beyer on a sloppy track. Hit 91 in Sept. in a Graded stakes on dry track. He improves second time out he will tough.
  • 11 – HOME RUN TRICK – Speed of the speed here. Will try to steal it on the front end. Should fade in the end. Deep exotics.

Race 10 

  • 6 – AMEN CORNER – 50-1 ML. Blinkers added. Horse shows some interest in closing both on fast dirt tracks. Blinkers added for a reason.
  • 7 – CANDY TYCOON – Class of the field. Ran in Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth.
  • 8 – KATZARELLI-  Tom Amoss/Bridgemohan. Won at this distance last race and was claimed. 20-1 morning line.
  • 10 – PRODIGIOUD BAY – Moquette/Prat. Not a fan of maiden winners against experienced winners, but horse is getting better and better. did 1 1/16 in the slop with ease.  

Race 11 –  Field 1 of the ARKANSAS DERBY – Grade 1

  • 1 – CHARLATAN – Baffert beauty. They talk about this horse being a freak of nature. Can't wait to see this horse run. Both career Beyers are 105 and 106 WOW!
  • 9 – WINNING IMPRESSION – King of the Shots, Dallas Stewart.  In a race that will no doubt be trying to catch CHARLTAN, this closer gets me in the money at a price.
  • 8 – BASIN – Santana/Asmussen-  Last three races were all in the slop, Graded level too. Should have no issues getting distance and dry track will help.

Race 12  – Oaklawn Handicap – Grade 2

This is a very good race.  Tough race to handicap.

  • 4 – MR. FREEZE – Has run in Graded races five, winning last race by three, that was second off the layoff. He is now third race of form cycle and Talamo rides. 4/5 at distance.
  • 5 – INDENTIFIER – Winner of two in a row, odds were 11-1 and 60-1., but this horse was woken up. He got lucky with slow fractions, but don't know the hot horse. Exotics, why not.
  • 7 – COMBATANT – Rosario/Sadler. Third race of the form cycle with Beyers of 91 and 101. He will be rolling late. I think he has a major shot at winning.
  • 9 – TACITUS – Mott/Johnny V. I bet this horse since 2019 Derby. Would love to see him win, but he just does not. Maybe rider change to Johnny V will help. Top three for sure. Second off the layoff.
  • 12 – BY MY STANDARDS – Winner of two in row since coming off the layoff. Beyers go up nicely from 91, 98. Horse has won 4 of last with three being Graded level races. 1/106 work coming in. 
  • 13 – NIGHT OPS – Castellano/Cox. No better closing rider on dirt than Javier Castellano. This horse is stepping up in class, but he will be rolling late. 5/5 in money at OP with three wins. Exotics
  • Top 3 –  COMBATANT – TACITUS – BY MY STANDARDS

Race 13 –  Field 2 Arkansas Derby – Grade 1

  • 5 – NADAL – Baffert/Rosario. Baffert with another beauty here. We bet this horse all three career starts. All wins. Can run all day. 
  • 10 – FARMINGTON ROAD – Pletcher/Castellano. Will have no issues with distance. Last two races has had bad trips; slow start well back, got second in end. 6 wide, 8 wide lane race prior ran for 4th. Top 3
  • 11 – WELLS BAYOU – Winner of La Derby. Distance may be an issue. He will be on the front end. Speed horse.

Race 14 

  • 5 – CARLOS SIXES –
  • 10 – WILD ABOUT YOU – Only 1of 2 horse in the field win at 1 13/4 miles or even finish in top 3. Have to use.
  • 11 – THE ROUGE DIESEL – Won twice at this distance.

Pick 3 sequence

  • Race 9 – ALL
  • Race 10 – 6, 7, 8, 20
  • Race 11 – 1
  • Hope for bombs in legs 1 and 2

PICK 4Races –  6 -9

  • Race 6 – 4 (14 if he gets in)
  • Race 7 – 7,8  (can single the 8 if budget is low)
  • Race 8 – 5, 7, 10
  • Race 9 – ALL

Races 11-14

This thing is going to be impossible to hit on a $50-$70 budget.

  • Race 11 – 1
  • Race 12 – 4, 5, 7, 9, 12, 13
  • Race 13 – 5, 10, 11
  • Race 14 – ALL (try 5, 7, 10, 11 depending on budget)

Good luck and thanks for horse racing with Dietz!

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