2019 Preakness Stakes Preview, Analysis and Betting Picks

by | May 17, 2019 | Horse Racing

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Race 13 – The Preakness Stakes – Grade 1

Two more horses entered after I did my early analysis.

WAR OF WILL – Horse draws the inside post once again. He breaks very well and I do not see this being a concern. He was moving on the turn in the Derby and we all know what happened there.  I like his chances. He will rate and close with a speed duel bound to set up in front of him.

BOURBON WAR – Horse is bred out of TAPIT. He is progressing nicely and possesses a deep closing kick. Irad is riding and he will be ready. I do not see the distance being an issue at all for this horse. Use in exotics.

WARRIOR’S CHARGE – Castellano rides for Brad Cox who is red hot of late. Winner of two in a row by daylight. He is stretching out to 1 3/16 after two wins at 1 1/16.  His numbers are peaking just at you would want to enter a major race, 76, 89, 97.  He improves again he wins.  My concern is the speed duel with MARKET KING and ALWAYSMINING. He has good workouts leading up to this race. I would not be surprised if he wins, but he will have to last the distance.

IMPROBABLE – Smith/Baffert. His numbers are the best on paper, but you need to run the race. He will finally get a dry track where he has 3 wins and second (Omaha Beach). He will be sitting just off the pace looking to close. I hope he does not overextend trying to keep up with a fast pace. Use in all exotics.

OWENDALE – Winner of the Lexington Stakes avoided the Derby to run here. Through in a dud in the Risen Star, but came back in the Lexington with the win. Geroux and Cox are lethal and this one has the rate and pace similar to IMPROBABLE. He is well rested and could be a huge price.

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MARKET KING – He will be out front acting as a spoiler.  Be shocked if he comes in the top 10.

ALWAYSMINING – Seems to be the talk of the track. Six wins in a row. Won last race by 11 lengths at 1 1/8. All his wins are at Laurel Park. He numbers are decent in respect to this field, but he will definitely be pushed for the first time in his career on the front end and is stepping way up in class. Winners of the Federico Tesio stakes do not do so well when they step up in class for the Preakness. Use in Superfecta.

SIGNALMAN –Ordinarily this McPeek/Hernandez combo would have me curious, but this horses numbers are way off compared to others in here. I see him being passed in deep stretch by the closers.

BODEEXPRESS – Johnny V hops on board and that is interesting. He will be the best rider this horse has had yet. Throw out the Derby race. He was the 20 post and he hated the slop. Prior to that, he had increasing numbers of 74, 91, and 96. He was flying late and could never catch MAXIMUM SECURITY.  His second place finish at 1 1/8 in 1:48.4 puts him in second with BOURBON WAR against this field. A repeat of that race and this one has a legit shot. He will rate and close and the rider change may make all the difference. I am using in exotics.

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EVERFAST – Dale Romans/Rosario. Has never been a factor in any graded stakes races. In fact, has never been in the money 2 of 9 races.  Not sure what I see in this horse. Not using.

LAUGHING FOX – Santana/Asmussen combo.  I will be a fool to say I am not using this horse after what these two did on Derby day. Deep exotics only as he will be running late passing tired horses.

ANOTHERTWISTAFATE – Jose Ortiz in the irons. Got second at Sunland Park at 1 1/8 miles in 1:46.4.  That is 2 seconds better than BOURBON WAR and BODEEXPRESS. He will on the lead looking to rate and close, but I think the distance is a too much. All his wind have been on synthetic surfaces.   Be shocked if he is in the top 3.

WIN WIN WIN – Pimentel gets the mount again. This horse hated the slop in the Derby. His numbers do not look good on paper, but you have to run the race. This is the closer in the field. He should get the fast pace set up to use that kick. Have to hope the front end horses are not freaks and go wire to wire. Prior to the Derby, he has never been out of the money and always closing late. Must use in exotics.

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There we have it.  This is going to be a very good race. There are speed horses. There are rate and closers and there are deep closers. This all comes down to three horses…and they are the front-runners, WARRIORS CHARGE,  ALWAYSMINING and MARKET KING. These three can set fractions of 22.8 or 23.4 or about that and they will set up for perfectly for IMPROBABLE and OWENDALE.  With those fractions, these horses will tire in deep stretch trying to stay close, which will setting up for WIN WIN WIN and BOURBON WAR.  

WAGER:

WIN – OWENDALE

EXACTA – OWENDALE, BOURBON WAR, over  IMPROBABLE, WIN WIN WIN, BODEXPRESS, WAR OF WILL.

TRIPLE – OWENDALE, IMPROBABLE, BOURBON WAR  over  OWENDALE, IMPROBABLE, BOURBON WAR, WIN WIN WIN, WARRIOR’S CHARGE over OWENDALE, IMPROBABLE, BOURBON WAR, WIN WIN WIN, WARRIOR’S CHARGE

Good luck and thanks for horse racing with Dietz!

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