Horse Racing Picks from Saratoga Race Course – Thursday, July 18, 2019
Here we go! The 2019 Saratoga race season is upon us. We have just killed it the past two years at the Spa! The track will be closed on Mondays and Tuesdays this year allowing for 40 days of racing.
I will be handicapping turf races, averaging three a day. I will pick three horses that I feel have a chance to be in the money. If I think a horse will win, will state that in the summary.
I will also choose a “best bet of the day” and a “long shot of the day” as well as the late PICK 4 of the day.
The PICK 4 will be composed of a .50-cent wager with a limit of close to $50. Let us keep it real for the average horse better.
Here is a brief summary of my 2018 picks:
90 races handicapped – 28 days of racing (no turf races on rainy days) and Travers Day was a full card of handicapping with 12 races. This amounted to 61 winners, 41 second place finishers, 44 third place finishers, 14 exactas, 2 triples, 11 Most Likely to Wins (6 of them were scratched), 4 Long Shot of the Day (5 of them scratched).
We had at least one horse in the money a whopping 91% of the time and were able to pick a winner nearly 54% of the races we handicapped. We did have much more success in 2017 with the 21 “Most likely to Win” wagers. Yes, that is correct, 21! Fifteen “Long Shot of the Day and 24 exactas and 11 triples.
We kill it at Saratoga. Tune into SPOOKY EXPRESS all season long and make some money with Dietz!
Saratoga Day 6 – July 18
Pay attention to the weather. Thunderstorms could pop up the during the week and affect track conditions.
1 – TURBO DRIVE – Maker/Jose Ortiz combo. These two are lethal together, especially on turf. They move this horse to turf for third race of the cycle. LEMON DROP KID is in the breeding, which means he will take to turf. I do not like the postposition on turf sprints. Use in exotics only.
3 – POWER UP PAYNTER – Linda Rice has this offspring of PAYNTER. Paid $100,000 for this horse and Lezcano rides for debut. Use in all wagers.
5 –SHANDIAN – Castellano/Gary Contessa combo. Horse is second time out, but first on turf. He will have experience over others and could be a nice price. Use in all wagers.
2 – SPIRIT ANIMAL – One of two entries for the 2 horse (2 and 2A). Chad Brown/Castellano combo who is dropping in class from a Grade 3. This horse will be closing late. Use in all wagers.
5 – SHOOTIN THE BREEZE – Johnny V/ Motion. In a race full of speed, I am taking this deep closer to get up and I think win. It will all depend on the speed up front, but is he can get fractions of .23.8 or less; this race will set up perfect. Leaning to win, but use in all wagers.
7 – OPRY – Pletcher/Lezcano. Horse is second race off the layoff with a nice 89 Beyer in return. He will improve off that effort and that makes this one tough to beat. He can rate on the front end and close. Major threat. Use in all wagers.
This is a very interesting race. Pay attention to weather. The also eligible are key, as are main track only horses.
3 – HIGH JINGO – Saez/Servis. He is very good on turf. Was put on the shelf in November of 2017, came back in June of 2018 to win going wire to wire, was then placed on the shelf again until June of this year when he faded at 7 furlongs after leading entire trip. Cuts back to 5 ½ furlongs and is second off the layoff. Legit horse.
4 – FIRST APPEAL – Brad Box/Castellano. Cox bought home a winner on Sunday. This horse is first off the claim where Cox hits at 32%. Use in all wagers. There will be a speed duel in this race; this one is the lone closer. He could take it all if the horses on front end burn each other out.
7 – MAMA MARY – Joe Sharp/Irad Ortiz. Horse is absolute flame-thrower. Second race off the layoff will have this one in good form. He will be in a speed duel for sure HIGH JIIMBO and SADIE LADY. Bullet works coming in, 2/90, 1/83 and 1/94. Concern is how much of a speed duel will occur. He has no stamina or closing kick.
11 – SADIE LADY – Rosario/DeLacour. Trainer is more of a Gulfstream Park trainer, but he is very good on turf. No doubt, he has the speed to be in this race having gone 6 furlongs in 1:08 last out and just holding on for the win.
MOST LIKELY TO WIN
I actually have two on today’s card.
Race 3 – #3 FIERCE LADY
Race 8 – #7 OPRY
LONG SHOT OF THE DAY
Race 9 #5 – VINCENTO 10/1
Good luck and thanks for horse racing with Dietz!