Horse Racing Picks by Stogie for Saturday, July 11, 2020

by Ken Stogie | July 11, 2020 |

Keeneland Race 6 Shakertown Stakes Grade 2

  • 10 Totally Boss- has been totally unlucky in last two starts, with awful trips, Gelding has the back numbers to pull the upset and has been firing bullets in the mornings, also the outside posts have been doing well in these Turf Sprints here at Keeneland , Live Longshot
  • 8 Bound for Nowhere- loves the green here and nearly won this race two years in a row, a neck loss kept him from the feat last year, Turf Sprint master Wesley Ward trains,Win Contender
  • 13 Leinster- another Longshot who I believe has shot in here, 5 year old is second off the layoff and has performed well here in the past, don’t ignore

Selections 10-8-13-9

Keeneland Race 7 Ashland Stakes Grade 1

  • 2 Venetian Harbor- the speed of the speed in here, set some blistering early fractions last out in the G3 Fantasy Stakes, then tired late , losing to one of the best Filly’s in the country, Swiss Skydiver, who takes on the boys today, I don’t believe they catch this gal today, Joel Rosario, who won on this Filly by 10 lengths is back aboard, Top Pick
  • 3 Bonny South- Improving Filly trained by Brad Cox, seems to be getting better every race, comes off a Career Top in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks, winning by a comfortable 3 lengths , if someone goes with Venetian Harbor and can soften that gal up a bit early, then this one has a shot, Win Contender
  • 6 Speech- very talented Filly who has a case of seconditis, 4 second place finishes in a row versus some fine Filly’s, she almost upset the highly regarded Baffert horse Gamine, losing by only a neck, Win Contender

Selections 2-3-6-5

Keeneland Race 8 Jenny Wiley Stakes Grade 1

  • 8 Toinette- has a nose for the wire winning 8 of 12 starts, including 2-2 at this distance and he has a win over the weeds here, could get 7-1 or better, Win Contender
  • 4 Rushing Fall – deserving favorite has won 4 of 5 starts here at Keeneland and is 3-4 at the distance, Mare likes to wing it on the front end and will be tough to beat, Win Contender
  • 3 La Signare- nearly won at 21-1 last out in the G3 Mint Julip, losing only by a head, had all kinds of trouble in that race that consisted of 14 starters, with a clean trip , I believe this Longshot has a great chance in here, Live Longshot

Selections 8-4-3-2

Keeneland Race 9 Bluegrass Stakes Grade 1

  • 5 Man in the Can- has won 3 straight races and comes off a win at this mile and an eighth distance, look for Tyler Gaffalione to lay second flight off the speed and get first run at the early leaders, I like what I see with this Arkansas Bred and I believe he can score here at a price, Live Longshot
  • 7 Swiss Skydiver- Filly takes on the boys for the first time, after destroying her fellow gals in last 3 graded Stakes,winning by a combined 11 lengths, my only concern is that she’ll get pressure early and has to carry her speed a mile and an eighth, still she’s looked mighty impressive of late and gets the services of 💰 Mike Smith, Win Contender
  • 4 Mr Big News- Closer who would benefit from a possible pace meltdown, use underneath

Selections 5-7-4-12

Woodbine Race 7 Connaught Cup Stakes Grade 2

  • 2 White Flag- Christophe Clement trained 6 year old ran well off a long layoff in the G 1 Jaipur, finished 5 th that day beaten by only 2 lengths, has a 3 rd place finish in a G 1 here over this course, Clement has this one working well and appears to be sitting on a big run, Top Pick
  • 1 Silent Poet- sports recent bullet,has won 6 of 10 over the turf here, has speed and draws the rail, much to like, Win Contender
  • 3 Blind Ambition- closer makes second start off the layoff and has some real good come home times, use underneath

Selections- 2-1-3-7

Delaware Park Race 8 Delaware Handicap

  • 2 Dunbar Road- Chad Brown/ Irad Ortiz combo, G1 winning Filly just seems to be a cut above her rivals today, I think this gal wins easy today, Top Pick
  • 7 Saracosa- I love this Mare’s run in the G1 Apple Blossom , connections cashed some money that day when this son of Bernadini , came from last to finish fifth beaten by just 4 at 103-1, ran a solid second next out at Churchill, could make some noise at a price
  • 4 Bellera- doesn’t seem to be the same runner who won the G3 Comely at Aqueduct back in November, if some how she finds here old form she would have a shot at victory, I’ll use underneath

Stogie Bets for Today

Keeneland Race 6 $10WPS #10 Totally Boss $2 Exacta Box 8-10-13

Woodbine Race 7 – $10WP # 2 White Flag |$1 Tri Box 1-2-3-7

Delaware Park Race 8 $10 Cold Exacta 2-7

Good Luck! Go Cash!

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