Last weekend was good, had several horses in the money and a few winners. I hope it went well for the followers. I hit the PICK 4 Saturday at Gulfstream Park. $120 bet and it paid $109.25. Again, lost money on the PICK 4 even though I hit it. I let the money ride into Sunday with another PICK 4 and I was out in the first leg. I went two deep in leg one hoping to load up more on the later races. The chance you take for the reward.
Watching all those races last weekend made me think about my write up and about my thoughts on the Kentucky Derby. I really liked IRISH WAR CRY going into the race and as a derby favorite, but his weakness was exposed. He could not maintain the distance with such a fast early pace, which is what I was afraid would happen, and he faded in the end. GUNNEVERA ran a great race, the type of race you want to see in the Derby, a closer that has the ability to rate. EL AREEB just did not fire his race. I do not think his fractions were that fast for him to fall back the way he did. Maybe we will see if he was sick or had an injury later. The winner of the Gotham Stakes (J BOYS ECHO) ran the type of race you need to win the Kentucky Derby, just as GUNNEVERA did in the Fountain of Youth.
There are still some horses out there I want to see run again. I still like MACRAKEN, but he has a sore foot and is not running this weekend. CLASSIC EMPIRE who had a sore foot in his last race could be ready for a race in April. MASTERY is running in a derby point’s race this weekend at Santa Anita. This is a horse to watch, but this is only his fourth race ever and he is stretching out to 1 1/18 for the first time after three shorter races. There is still lots to sort out before the big race arrives, but for now, I do not see any clear favorite for the derby.
The Kentucky Derby is a crapshoot. I say it all the time. It takes a lot of luck and a lot race luck to win the big race. I will write more about this the day of the event, but I mention it every year; the race is more hype and a party than it is a race of who is the best horse. Most of the horses, if not all, will never race in a twenty-horse field again. The most will be 14 horses.
I hope you go to see UNIQUE BELLA run last weekend. She went off at 1/9 odds. She did have a horse come up to here in the stretch, but with a little urging from the jockey and she quickly opened up five lengths. The horse is really something to watch.
Big Races this weekend are at Tampa Bay Downs so I am going to pick Tampa Bay Downs for Saturday and Sunday go with Gulfstream Park.
Saturday March 11, 2017 TAMPA BAY DOWNS
Race 7 – COLUMBIA STAKES
- 5 horse – TIZ A SLAM
- 2 horse – BIG BEND
- 9 horse – SONIC BOOM
TIZ A SLAM will be the morning line favorite and very well should be. Four starts and three wins.
BIG BEND is going to be my money horse here. He is up against it with a few of these in here, but the trainer is very good and the jockey is the home track darling. Use in exotics. SONIC BOOM is a horse I have seen run before. Very good horse with coming in with a second race off the layoff. Looking to improve off that last race.
Race 8 – CHALLANGER STAKES
- 2 horse – STANFORD
- 5 horse – ADIRONDACK KING
- 7 horse – AMI’s FLATTER
STANFORD is monster. Proven winner at all levels and is back at his favorite distance after coming in second last out at 1 1/8 being caught in the final 1/8 mile and losing by a head. Odd may be 1-1. ADIRONDACK KING comes in off first race off a five-month layoff. He should improve and that puts him in the money. AMI’S FLATTER is reaching a bit going up against the two previous horses, but his buyers are there. I do not think he wins, but deep exotics. Keep an eye on IDOLO PORTENO. He comes in off an eight-month layoff to run here. My opinion is that this is a set up for a future race – may want to write his name down.
Race 9 – FLORIDA OAKS STAKES – GRADE 3
- 6 horse – FIFTY FIVE
- 4 horse – DADDYS LIL DARLING
- 7 horse – TAMIT
- 5 horse – LA CORONEL
FIFTY-FIVE is horse that is in my virtual stable. He is deep closer. Last race was his first stakes race and he got third after running eight wide and was gaining. Prior to that, we hit this horse at 13-1 and 14-1 winners. Jose Ortiz rides and we may get some prices on this, hoping 6-1 or more.
DADDY’S LIL DARLING is a graded stakes horse coming in second or first, also a closer. TAMIT is a horse FIFTY-FIVE beat before two races back. It is a good horse that I think will be in the money. Deep exotics for sure. LA CORONEL may be the favorite. Been off since his Breeders Cup race last November. May need this one to get into form, but I think his Breeders Cup entry will get him over bet. Interesting horse is VALENTINES WISH. Third race of the form cycle going and almost going wire-to-wire last out to break his maiden. Steps up huge here against these. I can see this horse getting out front trying to steal the race, if he does try, that will set up perfect for closers.
Race 10 – HILLSBOROUGH STAKES – GRADE 2
- 5 horse – ELYSEA’S WORLD
- 6 horse – ISABELLA SINGS
- 3 horse – DICKINSON
- 9 horse – MY IMPRESSION
ELYSEA’S WORLD is a Chad Brown trainee who has really stepped it up lately since the rider change to Joel Rasario. Chad Brown is tough to beat on the turf and his buyers are going up and up. ISABELLA SINGS loves this turf course, which makes her dangerous here. Cruised last time out over this turf going wire to wire…DANGEROUS. DICKINSON beat the Chad Brown horse last time out pulling away with ease from the field in the end; ELYSEA’s WORLD was closing, but could not catch her before the wire. This horse likes to rate and pull away. MY IMPRESSION may be a reach here going up against tougher, but she looks to be improving and comes in off a nice rest from November. Do not be shy to use in exotics.
Race 11 – THE TAMPA BAY DERBY – GRADE 2
Kentucky Derby points race
- 7 horse – SONIC MULE
- 8 hour – STATE OF HONOR
- 2 horse – MONEY MONSTER
- 5 horse – TAPWRIT
SONIC MULE I saw run at Saratoga this past summer. It is a Todd Pletcher/Johnny V horse. This was a derby contender way back in the summer. He has seven races under his belt and his buyer numbers are going up slowly, but going up. I just have a feeling that this combo has the horse ready to run and at a price. STATE OF HONOR has some class, lost to SONIC MULE two races ago and came in third to MCCRAKEN and TAPWRIT last time out. He will be on the front end, not ideal for this race though. Deep exotics. MONEY MONSTER is my money horse here (no pun intended) he is the unknown horse with only two lifetime starts. He will need to step it up here for sure, but Rosario rides for the first time and he appears to sit and rate and then close which may set up for him. Do not be shy to use in exotics. TAPWRIT is a monster. He came closing last race on this track to get second to McCracken, prior to that it was two wins in a row and his buyers are getting better and better.
This should be a good race.
I have never done this before, but I am going to give out a “show pool” here.
Start off with $20 to show on a horse in race 7 and let it ride to show on a horse in race 8, and if it wins, let it ALL ride on the next race and so on and so on……….only five races.
- Race 7 – SONIC BOOM
- Race 8 – AMI’S FLATTER
- Race 9 – FIFTY FIVE
- RACE 10 – ELYSEA’s WORLD
- RACE 11 – SONIC MULE **
** if you don’t care and want to take a chance on a bomb try MONEY MONSTER- his odds will be long 30-1 or more is my guess!
Sunday March 12, 2017 GULFSTREAM PARK
- 4 Horse – LITTLE IRISHDANCER
- 7 horse – CUDDLE KITTEN
- One horse – RAINING LEMONS
LITTLE IRISHDANCER has a deadly trainer/jockey combo. I like this horse to be in the money. CUDDLE KITTEN is a live one, training well and has a food turf jockey who rides for a trainer that used him to win. Probably you are favorite. CUDDLE KITTEN is my odds horse here. Use in exotics and hope to get 8-1 or more.
- 3 horse – BOGULATOR
- One horse – SWEET CONNIE GIRL
- 6 horse – EMPRESS OF THE NILE
BOGULATOR is horse I have seen run before and he is a money horse, what I mean by that is, he comes in the money. SWEET CONNIE GIRL is a Chad Brown trainee who gets his go to jockey on board in Castellano. Inside post is a not ideal. EMPRESS OF THE NILE is dangerous. Trainer is very good on the turf. He does not have a large stable of horses in his barn, but when he runs, he does will.
- 2 horse – INDYS EMPIRE
- 10 horse – WHAT’S IN A KISS
- 8 horse – EPPING FOREST
INDY’S EMPIRE is going to be a bomb for us here. Third time out and this trainer has them ready to run at times. WHAT IS IN A KISS is yet another Chad Brown/Castellano combo. I would like to not pick a favorite, but cant in this one. EPPING FOREST is Chris Clement trained horse who goes to his “go to” jockey in Joel Rosario. Tough race to end the PICK 4 ticket.
Good luck and thank for horse racing with Dietz!