Stogies Horse Racing Picks

Aqueduct, Churchill Downs & Del Mar Horse Racing Picks and Best Bets – 11/14/25

Aqueduct Race 5 Notebook Stakes

4 Jaxer looked mighty professional when breaking maiden here when routing for the first time. Colt overcame a bad post, tracked a quick pace and drew off to win by nearly 2-lengths. This Graham Motion trainee has raised his late pace numbers in each consecutive start and is one of a few in here who sports a win at a route distance. Win Contender

3 Chummers makes his second start off the layoff after breaking maiden here at the Big A last out. Colt has never ran a route distance but his pedigree suggests he’ll love the added ground. Colt has 3 sharp works coming in and at 15-1 morning line, I’ll throw this one the mix. Live Longshot

5 Caroline St. Beat must be considered after winning on debut at the Spa at this distance. Major Threat

Selections 4-3-5-1

Aqueduct Race 8

3 Oat Coutour has shown a nice progression in his last two starts on the weeds. Roan recently broke his maiden here at a mile while running a career top. The lack of speed signed on in here might play against his late kick but if they go reasonably fast early, I love his chances to run them down late. Live Longshot

2 Mr Flowers ships in via Laurel where this gelding finished a good third versus a bit softer. He’s been no worse than third in his last 9 starts while sporting 2 trips to the winners circle. This Jamie Ness trained son of Nyquist should be forwardly placed with the lack of speed types in here. Major Threat

4 Rabaja appears to be the controlling speed in and could take them a long way with the lack of want the lead types entered today. Don’t Ignore this first time Gelding, he has a gate-to-wire win at this distance.

Selections 3-2-4-1

Churchill Downs Race 10

12 Ivory and Ebony ran a career best last out over this Churchill main track when finishing second in her first Stakes attempt after breaking maiden at the Spa. This is much easier spot for this Filly and despite the bad post, I believe she’ll handle this field. Top Pick

1 Low Key has been compromised by slow paces upfront in her last two starts but still managed to finish a strong second in both races. This gal’s late pace numbers have been off the charts despite the pedestrian paces she has faced. If she gets any favorable quick pace upfront, she’ll be a player at the wire. Win Contender

2 Crimsonite recently broke maiden and has progressed nicely in her last 3 starts. Major Player

Selections 12-1-2-7

Del Mar Race 3

7 Anna’s Wish makes her third start of the form cycle for trainer Dean Pederson who hits at near 20% winners off that angle. Filly finished a good second at this realistic level last out and should be able to move forward off that effort. She fits well here. Win Contender

5 Shop till you drop is your deserving morning line favorite with the big drop in class today. This one’s trainer hits at 33% winners when dropping his runners 2 classes. Win Contender

1 She’s Splendid has been knocking on the door at this level. Filly is in a new barn and they add first time eye cups today. Don’t Ignore

Selections 7-5-1-4

Most Likely Winner

12 Ivory and Ebony Churchill Race 10

Top Longshot Play

3 Oat Coutour Aqueduct Race 8