Aqueduct & Churchill Downs Picks – Stakes Races, Best Bets & Longshots For 11/15/25
Aqueduct Race 7 Jockey Club Oaks Grade 3
7 Laurelin had reeled off 5 straight victories to start her career until finishing second in the Grade 1 QE ll Cup as the beaten favorite. Filly is unbeaten on a firm turf and likely gets that firmness today as the forecast of rain is for late in the afternoon. She has the quickest turf speed figures of this group and merit’s favorite status. Top Pick
4 Fionn is another in here who has yet to lose on a firm turf. Filly a nice late turn of foot and would benefit from a hot pace early. I’m not totally convince the pace in here will quick early which could compromise this gals late run. She definitely has the talent to overcome a slow pace upfront. Win Contender
5 Evershed is an intriguing lightly raced Irish Bred with plenty of upside. She was last seen finishing second in a Stakes race at Colonial Downs in which she caught a soft turf course. I love this one’s effort two back when finishing second to Laurelin in the G2 Saratoga Oaks Invitational. If anyone can upset the top 2, I believe this Filly might be up to the task. Major Player
Selections 7-4-5-1
Aqueduct Race 9 Knickerbocker Stakes
3 Trikari has been facing some stout horses in Graded competition and has run well. It’s been awhile since this 4 year old has found the winners circle but his last race, a third place finish with a 96 turf Bris number shows he’s moving in the right direction. He’s making his second start off the layoff and appears to be sitting on a huge effort. Win Contender.
4 Ohana Honor shows a solid work tab after finishing a disappointing 4th in the Grade 2 Sycamore. He’s been facing tougher animals than this field throughout his career and if he brings his A game he’s your likely winner. Win Contender
8 Naptown offers a nice value play at 8-1 on the morning line. Gelding ran credible fourth in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile to Breeders Cup champ Notable Speech north of the border. He gets a Jockey upgrade and could make some noise in here at a price. Don’t Ignore
Selections 3-4-8-1
Churchill Downs Race 3 Chilukki Stakes Grade 3
7 Ragtime overcame a troubled trip last out in the G2 Raven Run and finished a fast closing 3rd beaten by just under a length. Filly stretches out beyond her 7 furlong distance today which she likely will relish She will benefit from a likely hot pace today and will be mowing them down late. Gal has never finished off the board in 5 career starts while sporting 3 trips to the winners circle, plus she’s a perfect 1-1 here on the Churchill green. Top Pick
6 One Magic Filly now runs for the very capable Brendan Walsh barn after defeating a tough group of Optional/Claiming 100k foes at Keeneland while running a near triple digit speed fig. This Filly has faced some salty competition throughout her 10 race career, she fits well here. Win Contender
2 Shred the Gnar faces the acid test today as she faces Graded competition for the first time. She’s won her last two races by a combined 13- lengths all in front running fashion. Filly likely will have some company on the front end today and needs to be careful not to engage in a suicidal deal early. If she can somehow set a reasonable pace , she’ll be a player here. Don’t Ignore
Selections 7-6-2-1
Churchill Race 10 Claiming Crown Jewel Stakes
6 Welaka– just might get the ideal set up today to showcase his late foot. He shows the best late pace numbers of his rivals in here and likely gets a fast early pace upfront. Gelding is a juicy 15-1 on the morning line and is worth a shot a nice price. Live Longshot
12 Navajo Warrior enters here on a 5 race win streak and is another who will benefit from a fast pace early. He draws a bad post but I have the confidence in Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr to work out a clean trip. Win Contender
4 Overstatement is yet another in here who will relish the likely hot early pace. This Kenny Miller trainee has run 3 solid races in a row and is in good form. His late pace numbers are amongst the best in here. Live Longshot