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Belmont and Churchill Downs Picks

Belmont Park & Churchill Downs Picks: Live Longshots and Best Bets for Races 6, 7 and 9

Stogie
Stogie
Stogie is a seasoned horse racing bettor with over two decades of trackside experience and a knack for spotting winners before the odds even shift. Born into a family that spent more weekends at the paddock than the park, Stogie’s love for the sport runs deeper than most—rooted in the dirt, sweat, and thunder of hooves at full gallop. He’s not your average tipster. Stogie blends old-school instinct with data-driven insights, studying race forms like sacred texts and following stables and jockeys the way others track stock tickers. His bets aren’t guesses—they’re calculated plays grounded in real-world edge and gut feel honed from thousands of hours at tracks from Saratoga to Santa Anita. Beyond the numbers, Stogie’s got stories. Wins that felt like miracles. Losses that taught hard lessons. And a lifetime of wisdom tucked behind that ever-present cigar. When he’s not at the track, he’s writing sharp, honest content that cuts through the noise and gives readers what they actually need: real advice from someone who lives and breathes the game. Whether you’re a weekend punter or a full-time bettor, Stogie’s voice is one you’ll trust, not just for the picks—but for the perspective.
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Updated September 25, 2026
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Belmont Park  Race 6

2 She’s Country makes her second start off the layoff after finishing a better than it looked 5th in a Restricted Stakes race for NY Breds. Filly chased an extremely fast pace that day and was coming into the race off a 9- month layoff. I’m expecting a huge move forward as this gal has races in her past that can easily defeat this group. Live Longshot 

7 Brokealltherules is another in here who can make some noise at a price. Listed as 8-1 on the morning line, this Richard Dutrow trainee went gate-to-wire two races back versus open-company, then tried that same technique versus much tougher and began to tire at the  top of the stretch, finishing a distant 8th. Her competitors today are a much easier group of animals than she faced last out. Win Contender 

11 Greyjoy enters here after running a career top in the NY Stallion Stakes Series 5 weeks ago. This Filly won by nearly 3-lengths with a 89 turf Bris figure which tops anyone in this field. A repeat of that effort would likely get this gal’s picture taken today. Don’t Ignore 

Selections 2-7-11-10

Belmont Park Race 7

8 Five Grand has started his career with 2 third place finishes as the beaten favorite. This George Weaver trainee has been training exceptionally well since hilighted by a recent 3/46 bullet. This son of Vekoma appears to be sitting on a big effort. Top Pick

5 Our Warrior goes turf to dirt, route to sprint and makes his second career start. All metrics that trainer Linda Rice excells at. Win Contender

3 Spicy Chicken is a first time starter by Nashville, who was a stellar sprinter. Colt’s work tab looks tight and I wouldn’t be surprised if this youngster crosses the finishing line first. Major Threat

Selections 8-5-3-2

Churchill Downs Race 9

5 Go Grey was last seen finishing a game third in the Grade 2 Nashville Stakes at Kentucky Downs. This son of Knicks Go was claimed for 100K two races back and now resides in the  capable barn of Mike Maker. Maker does an outstanding job with newbies to his stable making thier second start in his care. Top Pick

1 Banksy’s seems to have figured it out after breaking his Maiden in his 7th career start. He faced winners for the first time last out and won by a comfortable 3 lengths at Colonial Downs. Another move forward today should get this son of Paynter to the winner’s circle. Win Contender 

3 Royal Causeway had a tough run at the Grade 2 level out but looks primed for amore comfortable task today. Don’t Ignore 

Selections 5-1-3-4

Today’s Most Likely Winner 

Belmont Park Race 7
#8 Five Grand(7-2)

Longshot Play for Today

Belmont Park Race 6
#2 She’s Country 10-1