Churchill Downs Stakes Picks: Kentucky Oaks, Alysheba, Edgewood & More

Churchill Downs Race 7 Unbridled Sydney Stakes

6 Shisospicy is the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint Champion who is a perfect 4-4 at this distance. Her lone Churchill turf start was a resounding near 5-length victory in the Fern Creek Stakes. Filly hasn’t seen race day in over 6-months but she’s looked awfully sharp in her morning works. Top Pick

4 Creed’s Gold is a ridiculous 20-1 on the morning line. She likely goes off at around 8-1to 10-1 come post time. Gal has only one off the board finish in her last 10 starts while sporting 4 trips to the winners circle. Live Longshot 

3 Time to Dazzle is another intriguing Longshot in here that will likely outrun her odds. She exits from a good 4th in the G2 Giant Causeway, a fine effort considering that was her first start since her return from Dubai. I expect a solid run from this Mark Casse trainee. Live Longshot 

5 Queen Maxima failed as the favorite last out on the West Coast. Mare is better than last. Don’t Ignore

Selections 6-4-3-5

Churchill Downs Race 8 Eight Belles Stakes

6 Sippin Pretty has reeled off two straight victories since finishing second on debut. She’s a lightly raced daughter of Yaupon whose siblings have been quick to develop. Filly has tactical speed and should be in a good position early. I like her chances here at a price. Win Contender 

9 On Time Girl is the only Graded Stakes winner entered here today. Draw a line through this gals effort last out, she didn’t care for the mile distance. She’s back sprinting today where she’s won 4 of 5. Win Contender 

8 Goodall comes out of a career best effort in a local Stakes at Oaklawn. She’ll have to contend with some sharp early speed to her inside. Filly needs to be careful not to engage in a speed duel early. Major Player 

Selections 6-9-8-3

Churchill Downs Race 9 Alysheba Stakes Grade 2

7 Skippylongstocking keeps getting better with age. He won the G1 Pegasus World Cup , defeating White Abbario, who would go on to upset the mighty Sovereignty. This Saffie Joesoph Jr trainee won his next start, the G3 Essex with ease. I just seems no one in here that could potentially upset Skippy. Top Pick

8 Corporate Power has looked sharp in his 2 2026 starts which includes a sharp second place finish in the Grade 2 New Orleans at the Fair Grounds. Live Longshot 

9 Disruptor comes out of an impressive Grade 3 victory on the West Coast of Florida. Colt clocked in with a 103 Bris number that day while defeating a very good horse in Disco Time. Any repeat of that effort puts this son Gun Runner right there at the wire. Don’t Ignore

Selections 7-8-9-2

Churchill Downs Race 10 Modesty Stakes Grade 3

6 Gezora is Group 1 winner overseas and a Breeders Cup Champion who just seems a cut above her rivals in here today. I will not try to beat her. Top Pick

8 Pin Up Betty is 4-time winner in 7 starts on the Churchill blades. Mare ran a respectable 5th beaten by just 2 lengths in the G1 Jenny Wiley Stakes. Gal should move forward off that effort as she makes her second start off the layoff. Major Player 

3 Whiskey Decision will be flying late. Use Underneath 

Selections 6-8-3-2

Churchill Downs Race  11 La Troinienne Stakes Grade 1

4 Miss Justify is a juicy 15-1 on the morning line and worth a shot at a big price. Mare enters here off a 10 month hiatus but has been working well for new trainer Brendan Walsh, who does well with newbies to his stable. Walsh must like what he sees in this daughter of Justify to enter her in this Grade 1. Gal is a perfect 2-2 here at Churchill which just adds to the intrigue. Live Longshot 

9 Fully Subscribe has done little wrong in her short career, winning 3 of 5 races with a placing and a third. She’s a multiple Graded Stakes winner and the deserving favorite. Win Contender 

11 Drexel Hill must be considered with lone Churchill startbeing a second place finish in last year’s G1 Kentucky Oaks. Live Longshot 

Selections 4-9-11-5

Churchill Downs Race 12 Edgewood Stakes Grade 2

9 Dandona gets the tepid nod in an evenly matched edition of the Grade 2 Edgewood. Filly was last seen winning the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa. She improved her turf speed figure by 10 points from her previous start. Her connections paid a whopping 1 million  for this daughter of Tiz the Law and the expectations are very high. She sports the best late pace figs of her competition in here and should get a nice set up today. Win Contender 

1 Storm’s Wake winner of the G2 Appalachian Stskes at Keeneland last out and perfect 1-1 here on the Churchill green. Win Contender 

3 Imaginationthelady has yet to run a bad race. Win Contender

Selections 9-1-3-5

Churchill Downs Race 13 Kentucky Oaks Grade 1

11 Percy’s Bar was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes last out. Filly finished strong despite the tepid fractions upfront that day. She finished with a huge late pace number and a strong gallop out. She likely will relish the added distance today. Top Pick

10 Prom Queen has raised her dirt speed figures in each consecutive start. Filly exits from G2 victory down in South Florida.  She could make some noise in here at a price. Live Longshot 

2 Zany ran a disappointing second as the favorite in the G1 Ashland. Track was listed as good that day and I believe this daughter of American Pharaoh does her best running on an fast surface. She is one of few in here who have a win at this distance. Major Threat

Selections 11-10-2-1

Today’s Most Likely Winner

Churchill Downs Race 10

#6 Gezora

Top Value Plays

Churchill Downs Race 12

#9 Dandona (6-1)

Churchill Downs Race 13

#11 Percy’s Bar (6-1)

Today’s Longshot Play

Churchill Downs Race 11

#4 Miss Justify (15-1)