Churchill Downs Stakes Picks: Old Forester Mint Julep, Aristides, Regret, Blame & Arlington Stakes Best Bets – May 30, 2026

Churchill Downs Race 7 Old Forester Mint Julep Stakes G3

4 Medoro drops in class after finishing third by less than a length in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes. Mare has good tactical speed and should be sitting right off the early leaders. Gal drops 5 lbs off her last race and reunites with Jose Ortiz, who has won on this Mare three races back. Win Contender 

5 Proctor Street sports some of the best late pace numbers of this group and should benefit from a quick early pace. She’s never been off-the-board in 3 starts here at Churchill, with one trip to the winners circle. Win Contender 

3 Pin Up Betty makes her 3rd start of the form cycle today for trainer Mike Maker, who hits at 16% winners off that angle. Don’t Ignore 

Selections 4-5-3-1

Churchill Downs Race 8 Aristides Stakes Grade 3

3 Roll On Big Joe was last seen finishing second to Mad House in a Grade 3 at this distance at Oaklawn Park. Gelding gets back to Churchill today where has won 3 of 4 races. I love this 10-time winner in this spot here. Top Pick

2 Cornucopian disappointed last out when finishing 5th in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes. Colt faces a much easier group of horses today and should be a player at the wire. Win Contender 

1 Mad House is a speedball who enters here off back-to-back victories, including a Grade 3 win last out in gate-to-wire fashion. If no one goes early with this Gelding, he very well can take this group the distance. Major Threat

Selections 3-2-1-5

Churchill Downs Race 9 Regret Stakes Grade 3

1 Indigo Woods appears to be a horse whose crying out for more distance. Filly was last seen finishing a fast closing 6th beaten by alittle over 2-lengths. Gal is lightly raced with plenty of upside. Win Contender 

9 Tam Tam appears to be the controlling speed in a race that lacks any want-the-lead types. I’m not sure this Filly wants all of this mile and an eighth distance but if she sets a tepid pace upfront, she could wire this bunch. Win Contender 

6 Dandona didn’t get the best of trips last out in the Edgewood Stakes and race wide throughout, finishing a disappointing 6th. This gal is a player with a better trip. Don’t Ignore. Major Threat

Selections 1-9-6-8

Churchill Downs Race 10 Blame Stakes Grade 3

7 Liberal Arts is an intriguing Longshot in here. 5 year-old was overmatched last out in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap which featured the likes of White Abbarrio, Sovereignty and Journalism. No such beasts are running in this Grade 3 today. Prior to this ones 6th place finish in the Oaklawn Handicap, this son of Arrogate won the 200k Knicks Go Stakes with a 102 Bris number. If he runs back to that race, he could light up the tote. Live Longshot 

3 Hit Show has been working well since returning from Dubai after finishing 5th in the Dubai World Cup. This classy individual has won close to 10 million in his career and is 12-time winner. Win Contender 

8 Vibe is a lightly raced son of Into Mischief who has been climbing the class ladder. Colt has reeled off 3 straight victories and faces the acid test today. He’s 9/5 on the morning line and to me appears to be a vulnerable favorite. Use Underneath 

Selections 7-3-8-5

Churchill Downs Race 11 Arlington Stakes Grade 3

6 Minaret Station makes his second start off the layoff today for trainer William Walden who hits at a sweet 30% winners when his runners make thier second start off the bench. Colt needs to move forward here in the speed department to get the W. He’s raised his speed figures in each consecutive start and could be sitting on a career best effort. Colt is a ridiculous 15-1 on the morning line and that would be a gift come post time. He likely goes off at about 7-1 Live Longshot 

3 Lagynos has won 3 races in a row including the Grade 2 two races back. This 5 year old rarely runs a bad race and is your deserving morning line favorite. Win Contender 

7 Mercante was overmatched last out in the G1 Turf Classic recently but should not be dismissed here. He loves this turf course here at Churchill and is the defending Champ of this race. Don’t Ignore

Selections 6-3-7-5

Best Bets For Today

Most Likely Winner 

Churchill Downs Race 8

#3 Roll On Big Joe (9-5)

Today’s Top Longshot Plays

Churchill Downs Race 10

#7 Liberal Arts (20-1)

Churchill Downs Race 11

#6 Minaret Station (15-1)

.50 cent Pick 5 Races 8-11

Race 8-1,2,3

Race 9-1,6,9

Race 10 3,7,8

Race 11- 3,6,7

Bet =$40.50