Stogies Horse Racing Picks

Del Mar Breeders Cup 2025 Picks & Analysis – Top Contenders, Value Plays & Longshots

Del Mar Race 4 BC Filly & Mare Sprint G1

8 Hope Road enters here off her first Grade 1 victory, a 2-length win in the Ballerina Stakes at the Spa. Filly was acting up and hard to load that day but still was able to get the W. She’s a 3-time winner with 2 placings in 6 starts over the main track here and has been training extremely well the last 2 months. Win Contender

4 Tamara has been beset by injuries throughout her career but when she makes it to the starting gate, she’s shown some serious talent. Filly came back from a 11-month layoff and dominated a Grade 3 at Santa Anita. She pressed a very fast pace and still had plenty left in the tank. She should be even more fit second off the layoff today. Win Contender

2 Splendora hasn’t been able to get the job done versus Graded competition but I love this gal’s last two back-to back wins. She was a gate to wire winner last out in a restricted Stakes at a mile. She was fast early and even faster late in that race at Keeneland. Filly won’t get the lead today but her tactical speed should get her in a nice position. She’s working well and appears to be sitting on a big run. Major Threat

Selections 8-4-2-6-3

Del Mar Race 5 BC Turf Sprint G1

2 Reef Runner sports some of the best late pace figures when competing in these turf sprints. The early pace in this 5-furlong dash should be on fire early, so look for Jockey Tyler Gaffalione to be motoring home this gelding in the stretch drive. He enters here off a 1/62 bullet. Win Contender

1 Motorious was just neck away from being a Breeders Cup Champ, finishing second in this race last year. This veteran Gelding has reeled off 3 Straight victories since his second by a neck finish last year. Win Contender

6 Governor Sam took them a long way in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile turf, only to succumb at the wire, losing by just one length. Trainer George Weaver always brings in live runners in these turf sprints. This Colt could surprise in here. Live Longshot

Selections 2-1-6-3-8

Del Mar Race 6 Breeders Cup Sprint G1

2 Banishing has had a stellar year in 2025, finishing 9 of 10 starts in the money with 4 trips to the winners circle. He was neck away from upsetting the highly regarded Mindframe in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes at this 7 furlong distance. This Gelding’s highest late pace numbers came at this distance where he’s a perfect 2 for 2. Live Longshot

1 Kopion is multiple Grade 1 winner versus the gals. She takes on the boys today where she has competed well. She runs 5 races in a row with high triple digit Bris numbers. She’ll be tough to beat today. Win Contender

5 Big City Lights hasn’t seen race day in over nine months but trainer Richard Mandela has this 6-year-old training lights out which includes a recent 1/53 bullet. Live Longshot

Selections 2-1-5-10-12

Del Mar Race 7 BC Distaff G1

13 Regaled has looked like a different horse since switching to the Whitworth Beckman barn. Since the barn change this Filly has raised his Bris speed figures in each consecutive start. She enters here off a career best effort when winning the Delaware handicap by over 6-lengths. Gal has a tremendous late foot and her recent late pace numbers have been off the charts. She’s a juicy 30-1 on the morning line and I just can’t pass on this bomber. Live Longshot

1 Nitrogen has run back-to-back triple digit numbers since her surface switch to the dirt. She won the G1 Alabama two starts back and followed up that fine effort with a second by a head finish in the G1 spinster. Win Contender

3 Clicquot is a lightly raced Filly by Quality Road who had reeled off 4 consecutive victories which includes a career top last out in the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx. Plenty of upside for this gray, no telling how good she is. Don’t Ignore

Selections 13-1-3-6-11

Del Mar Race 8 Breeders Cup Turf G1

1 Rebel’s Romance is an absolute beast and looks for his third Breeders Cup win. Gelding has won an incredible 20 of 29 starts and comes off an eye catching 3 and a half length win in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at the Big A. Love this horse! Top Pick

8 Minnie Hawk is an incredible European 3 year old Filly who has won multiple Group 1’s in just seven starts. She gets in light and spots 7 lbs to the aforementioned. If she beats Rebel, she’s one special Filly. Win Contender

4 Redistricting is America’s best chance versus these superstar Euro’s. Don’t Ignore

Selections 1-8-4-2-9

Del Mar Race 9 Breeders Cup Classic G1

5 Forever Young has won over 15 million in purses all over the globe. This Colt rarely runs a bad race and ships extremely well. Colt finished third in this race last year and lost by just a head in a controversial finish in last year’s Kentucky Derby. I feel with the scratch of Sovereignty, this could be the year for the Japanese connections. Win Contender

7 Sierra Leone is a bit pace dependent and should get some help with the rabbit Contrary Thinking entered today. He’s the defending champ of this race and will be picking off horses in the stretch drive. Win Contender

9 Journalism is another closer who has a good shot in here if the pace is hot early. Colt hasn’t been able to get by Sovereignty but has been impressive, winning 6 of 10 starts which includes 3 Grade 1’s. With no Sovereignty, I like his chances Major Threat

2 Baeza has been facing the best 3-years and always runs a solid race. Don’t Ignore

1 Fierceness I would consider him but the one hole could be his undoing.

Selections 5-7-9-2-1

Del Mar Race 11 Breeders Cup Mile G1

3 Nysos has never ran a race under triple digit speed figures and he’s on his home track where he 2-2. Top Pick

2 Goal Oriented should be a player here with the cutback to a mile. Win Contender

6 Full Serrano is the defending Champ and must be respected. Win Contender

1 Will Take it had an excuse last out. Live Longshot

Selections 3-2-6-1

Del Mar Race10 BC Turf Mile

7 Johannes nearly won this race last year and is back on his home turf. Win Contender

8 Formidable Man is a perfect 6-6 on this Del Mar green. Hard to leave this one off your tickets. Win Contender

2 Notable Speech looks best of the Euro’s. Colt was last seen winning the G1 Woodbine Mile. Win Contender

Selections 7-8-2-11-4

Del Mar Filly & Mare Turf G1

9 Cinderella’s Dream is Godolphin owned and trained by superstar Charles Appleby. Filly has failed to find the winners circle in his last 2 starts overseas but should relish getting back on the Del Mar weeds where she finished a fast closing second in last year’s version of this race. Win Contender

13 She Feels Pretty is an 8-time winner in just 12 starts which includes multiple Grade 1’s. Her talent will have to overcome the bad post. Win Contender

6 Diamond Rain nearly defeated She Feels Pretty in the G1 EP Taylor at Woodbine. Don’t Ignore

Selections 9-13-6-5-1

Most Likely Winner

1 Rebel’s Romance Del Mar Race 8

3 Nysos Del Mar Race 11

Top Value Play

2 Reef Runner(6-1) Del Mar Race 5

Top Longshots to consider

2 Banishing (15-1) Del Mar Race 6

13 Regaled (30-1) Del Mar Race 7