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Horse Picks September 18

Horse Racing Picks & Best Bets: Belmont Park, Churchill Downs & Gulfstream Park

Stogie
Stogie
Stogie is a seasoned horse racing bettor with over two decades of trackside experience and a knack for spotting winners before the odds even shift. Born into a family that spent more weekends at the paddock than the park, Stogie’s love for the sport runs deeper than most—rooted in the dirt, sweat, and thunder of hooves at full gallop. He’s not your average tipster. Stogie blends old-school instinct with data-driven insights, studying race forms like sacred texts and following stables and jockeys the way others track stock tickers. His bets aren’t guesses—they’re calculated plays grounded in real-world edge and gut feel honed from thousands of hours at tracks from Saratoga to Santa Anita. Beyond the numbers, Stogie’s got stories. Wins that felt like miracles. Losses that taught hard lessons. And a lifetime of wisdom tucked behind that ever-present cigar. When he’s not at the track, he’s writing sharp, honest content that cuts through the noise and gives readers what they actually need: real advice from someone who lives and breathes the game. Whether you’re a weekend punter or a full-time bettor, Stogie’s voice is one you’ll trust, not just for the picks—but for the perspective.
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Updated September 18, 2026
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Belmont Park Race 5 Jockey Gold Cup Stakes Grade 14

4 Phileas Fogg finds himself set up as the lone speed in a stripped-down field of five, giving him easy path to control the pace and wire this field today.  With no other want the lead types signed on, he can set tepid fractions upfront and have plenty left in the tank for the stretch run. He’s a multiple Grade 2 winner at this distance and has a great chance of upsetting international superstar Forever Young.

7 Forever Young has a incredible resume which includes 11 victories in 15 starts with a lifetime earnings well over 30 million. He’s won many of the prestigious Grade 1’s across the globe and is your deserving favorite. Win Contender 

1 Baeza has yet to break clean in his last 4 starts but has still cashed a check. Hopefully this son of McKinzie can finally break well and get involved early. Major Player

Selections 4-7-1-2

Churchill Downs Race 9 

1 Doroteo exits from a better than it looked 4th place finish versus superstar sprinter Book E’M Dano in the 200k Mr. Prospector Stakes at Monmouth. This Gelding now faces softer, gets a Jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz and has been training exceptionally. Top Pick

6 Beach Colt steps up in class off a front running victory at Mountaineer. This Longshot boasts sharp early speed , a tight work tab, and a trainer witha 14% win rate when shipping runners. Live Longshot 

7 Camp Hale must be respected having won 2 of 3 races with a placing here at Churchill Downs. This Gelding has been facing much tougher animals of late and fits well with this group. Major Threat

Selections 1-6-7-4

Gulfstream Park Race 9

8 Mister Abarrio  takes a serious drop in class which can be concerning but trainer Saffie Joesoph Jr does hit at 30% winners when dropping in for a tag. If this Gelding is anywhere near 100% fit, he wins by 5. Top Pick

5 Full Nelson makes his first start off the claim after dominating much weaker foes by 10-lengths on the All-Weather here at Gulfstream. Gelding tries the turf today and gets an upgrade in the Jockey department for trainer Victor Barboza Jr who hits at 36% winners, first off the claim. Win Contender 

4 Stealin’ Bases might do just that on the front end today. Don’t Ignore

Selections 8-5-4-2