Horse Racing Picks & Analysis for Aqueduct, Laurel, Fair Grounds & Churchill

Aqueduct Race 4 New York Stallion Stakes Series

7 Sunday Girl looks a cut above her rivals in here today. Filly has won 5 of 7 on the main track here at the big A and gets a huge upgrade to Jockey Flavien Prat, who is on fire. Gal sports the quickest dirt speed numbers of the competition and is the deserving morning line favorite. Top Pick

6 Intentious seems like an appealing pick to get the second place money and maybe pull the upset against the big favorite. Filly will need to break better than she has in her last 4 races, which is concerning. She has a nice late turn of foot when she starts motoring and has the best late pace numbers of this group. If they go extremely quick early, I like this 10-1 shot to start picking them off in the stretch drive. Live Longshot

4 Khali Magic has sharp early speed but hasn’t found the winners circle in a while. Use Underneath

Selections 7-6-4-2

Laurel Park Race 7 Willa on the Move Stakes

1 Onyx Ten came back from a 6 month hiatus and has reeled off two straight victories including an impressive win over this course in a restricted stakes race last out. Filly has come back in fine form and has training exceptionally with his work tag dotted with bullets. Love this gals chances today. Top Pick

7 Spencerian is a whopping 30-1 on the morning line and I believe this Mare will be competitive here. She was coming off a 6 month layoff last start and raced wide while losing the whip. She was still able to make up ground in the stretch drive and came home with a strong gallop out. She’s a 5-time winner here at Laurel and is trained by the very good Hugh McMahon. Don’t sleep on this bomber today. Live Longshot

4 Takethemoneyhoney is a nose away from being unbeaten 5 starts. Filly hasn’t seen race day in over 6 months but has run well first off the bench in the past. She’s a perfect 2-2 here at Laurel and if she’s anywhere near 100% fit, she’ll be tough to beat. Win Contender

Selections 1-7-4-12

Fair Grounds Race 7 Andrew Ney Memorial Stakes

6 Dapper Moon gets some class relief after competing against open-company. Has been sidelined since his last-place finish at Churchill but this Colt’s work tab looks solid. This is the kind of race Trainer Dallas Stewart brings home a Longshot. Colt has some back class and fits well with these Louisiana Breds. Live Longshot

1 Geaux Sugar has been a model of consistency in these State Breds Stakes, winning 4 of his last 6 races. Gelding draws the rail and has good early speed. If he can get away with a tepid early pace, he’s your likely winner. Win Contender

3 Smash It has been away for 9-months but has been training well for new trainer Brendan Walsh who does extremely well with newbies to his barn. Major Threat

Selections 6-1-3-7

Churchill Downs Race 10 Commonwealth Stakes

9 Flying Mohawk was last seen finishing a disappointing 18th in the G1 Kentucky Derby. Colt now gets back on his preferred surface where he’s won 2 of 4 races which includes a near 6-length maiden score here on the Churchill weeds. His work tab looks tight for his return and could be sitting on a top effort. Win Contender

2 Troubleshooting proved he’s much more than a sprinter when winning a grade 3 at Keeneland while stretching out to a mile. He’ll have to go an extra sixteenth of a mile today and should be up to the task. He’s ultra consistent and gets Tyler Gaffalione who sports back-to-back wins when piloting this son of Not This Time. Win Contender

3 Montador is a lightly raced son of Nyquist who has plenty of upside. He’s won his last two of three races and appears to be moving in the right direction. Colt steps up in class here but should move forward off his recent performance. Don’t leave this one off your tickets. Major Threat

Selections 9-2-3-10-7

Most Likely Winner

Aqueduct Race 4 #7 Sunday Girl

Top Value Play

Laurel Park Race 7 #1 Onyx Ten(9-2)

Top Longshot Play

Fair Grounds Race 7 #6 Dapper Moon (10-1)