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Keeneland Stakes Picks

Keeneland Picks: Phoenix Stakes, Jessamine Stakes & Alcibiades Best Bets – October 2, 2026

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Stogie
Stogie is a seasoned horse racing bettor with over two decades of trackside experience and a knack for spotting winners before the odds even shift. Born into a family that spent more weekends at the paddock than the park, Stogie’s love for the sport runs deeper than most—rooted in the dirt, sweat, and thunder of hooves at full gallop. He’s not your average tipster. Stogie blends old-school instinct with data-driven insights, studying race forms like sacred texts and following stables and jockeys the way others track stock tickers. His bets aren’t guesses—they’re calculated plays grounded in real-world edge and gut feel honed from thousands of hours at tracks from Saratoga to Santa Anita. Beyond the numbers, Stogie’s got stories. Wins that felt like miracles. Losses that taught hard lessons. And a lifetime of wisdom tucked behind that ever-present cigar. When he’s not at the track, he’s writing sharp, honest content that cuts through the noise and gives readers what they actually need: real advice from someone who lives and breathes the game. Whether you’re a weekend punter or a full-time bettor, Stogie’s voice is one you’ll trust, not just for the picks—but for the perspective.
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Updated October 1, 2026
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Keeneland Race 7 Phoenix Stakes Grade 2

10 Nakatomi is the defending Champ of this Stakes and does his best running right here at Keeneland, winning 4 of 7 starts with 2 placings. Unfortunately this Gelding hasnt sniffed the winner’s circle since. He’s a closer in race loaded with speed and I’m fine with the outside post. He’ll be motoring late under the guidance of Irad Ortiz Jr. Win Contender 

8 Hymn has won 4 of his last 5 races which includes a Grade 1 win last out. This son of McKinzie has good tactical speed and shouldbe positioned in the second flight. He’s in the best form of his career and appears to be sitting on a huge effort. Win Contender 

3 Little Thunder is a lightly raced son of Noble Bird who has looked impressive in his 4 race resume. He’s won 3 of 4 startsand recently ran a career top when defeating a salty bunch at the Spa 3 weeks ago. Gelding is juicy 15-1 on the morning line and likely out runs his odds today. Live Longshot 

Selections 10-8-3-4

Keeneland Race 8 Jessamine Stakes Grade 2

6 Glycogen sports back-to-back wins at this distance, including recent victory at the Spa. This daughter of Jack Christopher gets the services of Johnny V today and is solid value play at the 8-1 morning line. Win Contender 

3 Monique En Vol was a winner on debut at Kentucky Downs ,with plenty left in the tank. This Filly is the daughter of the mighty Flightline so I see a big move forward as she faces winners for the first time. Brad Cox, who boasts a stellar 28% win rate, excels at training second-time turf starters. I expect this gal to be right there at the wire. Win Contender 

8 Lucky Bernadine recently broke maiden in just her second career start for trainer Brad Cox. This son of Tapit should relish the added distance today.  Major Threat

Selections 6-3-8-2

Keeneland Race 9 Darley Alcibiades Stakes Grade 1

1 Emphatic is unbeaten and uncontested in 2 lifetime starts, winning by a combined 12-lengths. This Brendan Walsh trained daughter of Nyquist has been training exceptionally and these Nyquist youngsters tend to show dramatic improvement as climb the class ladder. Win Contender 

5 Summer Starlet is another unbeaten in 2 start entrant. This Filly was last seen dominating a field of 7 in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga while clocking in at near triple digit speed figure. She routes for the first time today for trainer Steve Asmussen. Win Contender 

6 Forever Carina came from the clouds on debut and drew off for a 2-length victory. This Chad Brown trainee ran a late pace number that towers over all but one horse here. I like this one’s chances. Don’t Ignore

Selections 1-5-6-8