Kentucky Derby Picks & Churchill Downs Stakes Selections – May 2, 2026

Churchill Downs Race 8 Pat Day Mile Stakes Grade 2

8 Creole Chrome chased a fast pace in the Grade 1 Bluegrass and had nothing left for the stretch drive, finishing a distant 4th. I’m going to forgive that effort as this Colt was facing much tougher. He’s fired 2 bullets since and appears to be sitting on a top effort. Win Contender 

6 Crude Velocity has only 2 races on his resume but they have been impressive. Colt won on debut then faced winners for the first time and dominated that group by nearly 7-lengths while clocking in with a 103 Bris number. Win Contender 

1 Englishman is another in here who has won his first 2 starts. This son of Maxfield has won those 2 races by a combined 15-lengths and has been training lights out. Major Player

Selections 8-6-1-2

Churchill Downs Race 9 American Turf Stakes Grade 1

4 Stark Contrast has run 2 very sharp races to start his 2026 campaign. He was last seen finishing second in the G3 Jeff Ruby on the All-Weather surface at Turfway Park. He finished second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at 58-1. He’s versatile, sports some of the highest turf speed figures of this group and gets a Jockey upgrade to Flavien Prat. Top Pick

2 Let’s Be Frank is still a Maiden but I believe he can make some noise in here at a price. I like his effort in the G2 Pilgrim when finishing a fast closing third and he had an excuse in the BC Juvenile Turf. Live Longshot 

12 Remember Mamba is unbeaten in 3 career starts which includes a Grade 3 score last out in the Transylvania while running a career top. Win Contender 

Selections 4-2-12-6

Churchill Downs Race 10 Churchill Downs Stakes Grade 1

6 Knightsbridge enters here riding a 4 race win streak. He recently won by a whopping 11 lengths in the Gulfstream Park Mile. His lone Churchill start was a 10-length Maiden score. This speedball will get tough to beat today. Win Contender 

2 Cornucopian is unbeaten when sprinting and enters here off a career best 107 Bris speed figure while winning the G3 San Carlos at Santa Anita. Win Contender 

1 Disco Time cuts back in distance after finishing second by a length in a Grade 3 down at Tampa. Colt has tactical speed and should be in a good position early. This 7- furlong distance just might be what this Brad Cox trainee needs to get back to his winning ways. Don’t Ignore

Selections 6-2-1-9

Churchill Downs Race 11 Old Forester Turf Classic Stakes Grade 1

9 Test Score finished second in last year’s rendition of this race and has run well, including a Grade1 victory last out in the Pegasus World Turf Cup. This is one professional horse who rarely runs a bad race. Top Pick

6 Rhetorical acted up in the gate last out in the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile and that expenditure just might of cost this Gelding the race. He still finished third beaten just over a length. If he can come down today before the gates open I love his chances. Win Contender

7 Gold Phoenix must be considered after his Grade 3 win last out. He has nice late turn of foot and enters here off a sharp bullet work. Live Longshot 

Selections 9-6-7-3

Churchill Downs Race 12 Kentucky Derby Grade 1

6 Commandment isn’t getting the respect in the early pools that I believe he should. Colt is on a 4 race win streak with most recent victory happening in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. His late pace figure in that race was off the charts despite a pedestrian pace upfront. Don’t read into Jockey Flavien Prat getting off this horse for Emerging Market. Prat and trainer Chad Brown have good relationship and Prat doesn’t want to rock the boat for future rides. This son of Into Mischief offers an incredible value at the 6-1 morning line. Win Contender 

11 Incredibolt is an intriguing Longshot in here. He laid a total egg two races back at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull, then looked impressive when winning the West Virginia with 115 late pace fig. He’s proven here at Churchill Downs with a perfect 2-2 record, including a Grade 3 win in the Street Sense. He hasn’t raced the likes of these but if he works out a trip and the early pace is hot, I like his chances late. Live Longshot 

12 Chief Wallabee has run 3 very good races to start his Career. He recently finished a fast closing third in the Florida Derby. He’s bred up and down for this distance and trainer Billy Mott is super high on this Colt. Mott adds eye cups today which is huge gamble. He’s gonna either improve from the equipment change or regress. I hoping he can move forward off the change of equipment. Win Contender 

1 Renegade made one the most eye catching moves when dominating the Arkansas Derby. He’s a cliserso the dreaded 1 hole won’t affect him as it would others, however he’ll need a precision ride and must handle the kick back. If he wins this from the 1 hole, he’s a special horse. Major Player

18 Further Ado enters here off a 11-length victory in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland while running the fast speed figure of any of his rivals in here today. I dont like 18 hole as he will have to be used a bit early to get a good position but he has obvious talent and just might overcome the deep post. My other concern is a possible bounce off such a good effort last out. Use with Caution 

Selections 6-11-12-1-18-9

TODAY’S MOST LIKELY WINNER 

Churchill Downs Race 10

#6 Knightsbridge (9-5)

Top Value Plays

Churchill Downs Race 8

#8 Creole Chrome (8-1)

Churchill Downs Race 12

#6 Commandment (6-1)

Longshot to Consider

Churchill Downs Race 9 

#2 Let’s Be Frank (30-1)

Churchill Downs Race 12

#11 Incredibolt (25-1)