Stogies Horse Racing Picks

Saratoga Horse Racing Preview, Picks & Best Bets – Friday, June 6, 2025

The energy at Saratoga Race Course is unmistakable this Friday, June 6, as the second day of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival unfurls with precision and pageantry. With Saturday’s historic Belmont Stakes drawing closer, today’s card serves not just as a warm-up but as a headline act in its own right. A slate of graded stakes, deep fields, and tactical matchups mark the afternoon, offering plenty of value and intrigue for both casual fans and seasoned handicappers.

The spotlight will shine especially bright on Race 9 the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes where top-tier older fillies and mares clash over 1 1/16 miles on dirt for a $500,000 purse. The field is compact but stacked with class, setting the table for a gritty finish. Immediately following is Race 10, the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup. A true stamina test at two miles on turf, this event has drawn a competitive international cast and could be decided by a savvy trip or late turn of foot.

Race 11 keeps the stakes high with the Grade 2 Intercontinental, while Race 13, the Grade 1 New York Stakes, closes the show with another elite turf contest, featuring some of the nation’s most accomplished fillies and mares.

For those playing along, we’re locked in on five key races. In Race 6, a sharp allowance sprint, our money’s on the improving three-year-old that turned heads in her last outing with a dominant gate-to-wire effort. Race 9 (Ogden Phipps) sees us siding with the closer who’s been working lights out over the past month. In Race 10 (Gold Cup), our lean is toward the Euro invader with proven marathon form. For Race 11, we’re targeting a value play with tactical speed and a favorable draw. And in the nightcap Race 13 (New York Stakes) we’re backing a filly that’s been knocking on the door at the top level and is due for a breakout.

First post is 11:40 AM, and with temperatures in the mid-70s and fast/firm conditions expected, everything is aligning for a quality day at one of racing’s most iconic venues. Whether you’re here for the handicapping puzzle or the atmosphere, Friday at Saratoga is a celebration of the sport’s depth—and a fitting overture for what’s to come on Saturday.

Saratoga Race 6 Bed of Roses Stakes Grade 2

3 Ways and Means makes her second start off the layoff after rallying to be third in a Grade 1 at Churchill Downs. This Filly does her best running here at the Spa with 3 wins in 4 starts which includes a victory in last years Test Stakes. She’s a proven runner on an off track which could be the scenario today. Top Pick 1 Irish Maxima appears to be controlling speed in here and has reeled off 3 straight victories. She was last seen going gate-to-wire the G3 Distaff Stakes at the Big A. Filly faces a much tougher task here but this gal looks like the lone speed and will be dangerous if let alone on the front end. Win Contender 6 Miss Justify looks like a horse who’s moving in the right direction. Recently coming off a 4-month layoff, Filly ran a career top when besting a group of Allowance-Optional 80k types by 4-lengths. A move forward today off that effort, puts this one right there at the wire.

Live Longshot Selections: 3-1-6-2

Saratoga Race 9 Ogden Phipps Stakes Grade 1

4 Raging Sea has been a model of consistency, winning 4 of her last 5 starts. Mare came off a near 6-month hiatus to win the Grade 1 La Troienne. She sports the highest late pace figures of this group and should get an honest pace upfront. Gal will be motoring down the stretch drive. Jockey Flavien Prat rides back off the recent Grade 1 score. Win Contender 1 Dorth Vader exits from troubled trip in the G1 La Troienne but still ran a game 4th beaten by just under 2-lengths. Mare makes her third start of the form cycle today and could make some noise in here at a price. I love that this gal sheds 5 lbs off her last start. Johnny V is in the irons today. Live Longshot 7 Randomized is front running Mare trained by Chad Brown. This gal likely will try to wire this field from start to finish. If she can lull them to sleep on the front end, she just might make every pole a winning one.

Major Player Selections: 4-1-7-5

Saratoga Race 10 Belmont Gold Cup Grade 2

1 Flatten the Curve is a European invader who brings in solid resume when running at this Marathon distance. Gelding has won back-to-back races to start off his 2025 season. He should relish the Saratoga turf course which likely will be listed as good to soft with all the rain in the forecast. Win Contender 3 Limited Liability nearly won the Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes when losing by just a head in this one’s most recent start. Gelding finished a game third losing by just neck in last year’s version of this race. Don’t leave this guy off your tickets. Win Contender 4 La Mehana is a hard trying Mare who faces the boys today. She might just appreciate this 2 mile distance today. She comes out of a pace-less race in the Sheepshead Bay Stakes where she finished a disappointing 4th. I believe she outruns her odds here.

Live Longshot Selections: 1-3-4-5

Saratoga Race 11 Acorn Stakes Grade 1

5 Bless the Broken has been raising her dirt speed figures in each consecutive start and I believe she’s sitting on a career effort. She recently finished a fast closing third to superstar Filly Good Cheer in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. I’m going take a shot at the upset here. Live Longshot 2 Good Cheer is an absolute win machine and deserving morning line favorite. Her times have not been spectacular but she is undefeated in 7 lifetime starts. She runs to her competition and continues to dominate. She’s your likely winner but the Spa is the “Graveyard of Favorites “ for a reason. Win Contender 4 Shred the Gnar is the wise guy pick in here as she’s lightly raced with plenty of upside. She was a 7-length victor when taking on winners for the first time. There’s no telling how good this daughter of Into Mischief is. She faces the acid test today. Don’t Ignore.

Selections: 5-2-4-6

Saratoga Race 13 Just a Game Stakes Grade 1

7 A Lilac Rolla is an overseas Invader who hasn’t seen the starting gate in over 10 months. Filly has been facing some salty runners in Europe in Group 1 company. Connections paid a whopping 1.3 million for this regally bred daughter of Harry Angel. She won a Group 3 off a similar layoff, so I’m willing to take a shot with this Filly at a price. She makes her first start in the Billy Mott stable. Mott hits at 30% winners when taking over the training duties from these International starters. Win Contender 9 Choisya enters here on 3 race win streak which includes a controversial victory in the G1 Jenny Wiley. Mare is a 4-time winner at this distance and is unbeaten in 2025. Win Contender. 8 Excellent Truth receive no love from the stewards at Keeneland when finishing second to the aforementioned. Mare was steady and obviously cost her the race in the stretch drive. She looks to turn the tables on her rival today.

Win Contender Selections: 7-9-8-3