Saratoga Picks, Predictions & Bets – Stogie Picks Friday, July 4, 2025
Saratoga’s summer racing season always brings top-tier action, and this weekend is no exception. We’ve got three standout stakes on the card: the Manilla Stakes for the turf milers, the prestigious Belmont Derby Stakes featuring some of the best three-year-old turf talent around, and the historic Suburban for the older dirt horses. Whether you’re a die-hard handicapper or just looking for a little betting action, these races are loaded with storylines and betting angles worth exploring. Let’s jump into the picks for each!
Saratoga Race 8 Manilla Stakes Grade 3
The 4 Zulu Kingdom has done little wrong in his 6 Lifetime starts, winning 5 races which include the Grade 1 American Turf. This Roan’s lone loss was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf where he was in contention top of the stretch, but the Jockey lost the whip. Win Contender
12 Flat to Dat Mat is an intriguing long shot here. I love this Colt’s last two races while sprinting on the turf, a Maiden breaking victory in November of 2024, and most recently a fast-closing second in the Paradise Creek Stakes at the Big A. I believe this Mike Maker trainee will relish this mile distance today. Once these Omaha Beach siblings figure it out, they tend to move forward at a fast rate. Live Longshot
5 Reagan’s Wit has run well at multiple venues in his short career. Colt was last seen dominating a suspect group in the non-graded JW Murphy Stakes at Pimlico. In his first Grade 3 race, this son of Authentic ran a strong 4th despite a very wide trip throughout and he’s finished second by just a neck to the likely favorite in here, the #4 Zulu Kingdom. Major Threat
Selections 4-12-5-8
Saratoga Race 9 Belmont Derby Grade 1
4 New Century exits from a fast-closing third in the Grade 1 American Turf at Churchill. Colt was coming off a quick turnaround after running fifth, overseas at Newmarket. This Colt does his best running when coming into a race on 6 to 8 weeks’ rest. I expect a top effort from this Brendan Walsh-trained Colt. Top Pick
3 Luther has been knocking heads with some stiff competition overseas in Group 1 company. This 3-year-old son of Frankel will appreciate the firm turf course here at the Spa. Win Contender
5 Test Score couldn’t get by the win machine Zulu Kingdom in the G1 American turf, finishing second by just over a length. This son of Looking at Lucky and Grade 3 winner is in fine form for trainer Graham Motion. Win Contender
Selections 4-3-5-1
Saratoga Race 10 Surburban Stakes Grade 2
8 Awesome Aaron is in the best form of his career, winning back-to-back races including the Grade 3 Pimlico Special. This son of Practical Joke was claimed for a mere 40k last year and his dirt speed figures have been on the rise since. Gelding is a stalker who will get the first jump at the likely pace-setter #1 Phileas Fogg. He’ll have to hold off some very good closers at the wire. I believe he’s up to the task. Win Contender
6 Honor Marie has a back-to-back class and comes out of a confidence-building victory versus a softer group. Colt is a bit pace-dependent but I believe he gets the right setup today. Live Longshot
4 Locked is a 5-time winner in 9 Career starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. His lone attempt at this distance was an eye-catching victory by over 8 lengths in the Santa Anita Handicap. Deserving Favorite