Stogie Picks Belmont at Saratoga Saturday Jun 7, 2025
##Sorry For The Late Post
Saratoga Race 6 Wonder Again Stakes
8 Laurelin is a lightly raced Filly trained by Graham Motion who is on the improve. Gal started off her 3-year-old season by taking a local Stakes at the Big A while running a Career top. She’s improved her turf speed figure by 10 points from race 2 to 3. One more move forward could get this Filly’s picture taken today.
Win Contender. 6 Nitrogen enters here in fine form, winning 4 races in a row which includes two Grade 2 victories. Deserving Favorite 2
May Day Ready returns from a failed effort in Japan. Before the disappointing race across the globe, this Filly started her career with 3 straight victories and finished second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Major Player.
Selections 8-6-2-1
Saratoga Race 7 True North Stakes
2 Crazy Mason enters here in incredible form, winning 3 races in a row, including the Grade 2 Carter Handicap. This son of Coal Front has a tremendous late turn of foot and his late pace numbers have been off the charts. He enters here off two bullet works. Top Pick
5 Book’em Dano is another in here who has shown a strong late kick in these Graded Sprint races. Gelding will benefit from the likely hot early pace. Win Contender 6 Mullikin drops in class after taking on the likes of Mindframe and Nysos. No such beasts in this Grade 2 today. Major Player.
Selections 2-5-6-4
Saratoga Race 8 Metropolitan Handicap
1 Fierceness is perfect 3-3 here at the Spa and multiple Grade 1 winner. Colt had been a bit inconsistent to start his career but is now a seasoned veteran who appears to be the quickest in here. Top Pick
2 White Abbario is in the best form of his career, winning back-to-back Graded Stakes with hardly breaking a sweat. This 6-year-old is yet to win at this distance but his form is too good to dismiss. Win Contender
4 Just a Touch has been climbing back up the class ladder. Colt has won his last two races by a combined 17- lengths. He faces a much tougher group of animals today. Don’t Ignore.
Selections 1-2-4-5
Saratoga Race 9 Jaipur Stakes Grade 1
2 Think Big is unbeaten in 2025 after winning the Grade 2 Shakertown and the Grade 2 Turf sprint. Gelding is in the best shape of his career and his work tab looks tight. His last quarter mile in those two wins have been extremely quick . He’ll be motoring in the stretch drive.
10 Coppola is the controlling speed in here. This front running 6-year-old has been folding late in the stretch in 3 consecutive races. However, I believe he can get a comfortable lead today and possible slow it down a bit on the front end. If can set a moderate early pace, he’ll likely take them gate-to-wire. Win Contender
9 Ag Bullet exits from trouble trip in a Grade 3 at Churchill. This a Mare taking on the boys but she’s beaten the opposite sex in the past. Don’t Ignore.
Selections 2-10-9-4
Saratoga Race 10 Pennine Ridge Grade 3
9 Noble Confessor is still a Maiden but I love what I see in this Todd Pletcher trainee. Colt was neck away from beating the likely huge favorite in this race #1 Zulu Kingdom. That second place finish was in the Grade 2 Pilgrim on a yielding turf at the Big A. Colt likely gets a soft to yielding turf course today. The 12-1 morning line is just too juicy to pass up. Live Longshot
1 Zulu Kingdom has won 5 of 6 races which includes a Grade 1 win last out. Roan will be tough to beat in here. Win Contender 4 Flying Mohawk has the turf form to be competitive today. Don’t Ignore.
Selections 9-1-4-7
Saratoga Race 11 Woody Stephen’s Stakes Grade 1
8 Gunmetal was last seen dominating a field of 9 Allowance/ Optional 125k 1X types. Colt showed vast improvement from his previous effort. He finished that with a strong gallop out with plenty left in the tank. Live Longshot.
1 Big Truss is another Live Longshot in here. This Colt only has two starts on his resume but they have been impressive. He debut with a 5-length victory then ran second versus a salty group of winners in his second career start. Don’t sleep on this son of Justify. Live Longshot
4 Patch Adams just ran a career top with a 104 Bris number in the slop. Colt likely gets the sloppy conditions today.
Major Threat Selections 8-1-4-11
Saratoga Race 12 Manhattan Stakes Grade 1
6 Sprit of St Louis exits from a sharp victory in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill. Gelding likely gets an ideal pace scenario to set up his closing kick. Manny Franco, who has won his last 6 of 7 races when aboard this Chad Brown trainee. Top Pick
9 Far Bridge won the Grade 2 Man O War Stakes last out and is multiple Graded Stakes winner. This son English Channel is a perfect 2-2 in 2025. Win Contender 3 Highway Robber comes out of a hard fought third place effort in the Grade 1 Turf Classic. Any repeat of that effort puts this one right there at the wire. Don’t Ignore
Selections 6-9-3-4
Saratoga Race 13 Belmont Stakes Race 13
6 Baeza ran an incredible third despite a troubled trip in the G1 Kentucky Derby. This improving McKinzie Colt has to start from the 21 hole in the derby. He was hit with sloppy kick back and was in tight quarters yet he finished with authority. I believe he’ll offer the best value of the top 3 in here. Win Contender
2 Sovereignty is the Kentucky Derby Champ who skipped the Preakness. He’s had plenty of time off and has been training forwardly. He defeated Journalism in the slop Derby Day and likely gets the sloppy conditions today. Win Contender
7 Journalism looked like a superstar when bursting through a small hole in the Preakness and accelerating in the final furlong. This will be his third race in 5 weeks. If he can win this , he’ll be in a class by himself. I’d prefer him on a fast strip which he definitely won’t get today. I’m going to use him underneath. He could prove me wrong.