Stogie Picks for Churchill Downs and Belmont at the Big A Friday June 20 2025
Belmont at the Big A Race 7
3 Feasible exits from a poor showing versus a very tough group of Allowance/ Optional 50KN1 foes. I’m going to forgive that effort as this Filly was in over her head and didn’t get the best of trips. She faces a much weaker bunch today and enters here with a 1/34 bullet. Win Contender
1 Work Away won by nearly 10-lengths when breaking her Maiden in just her second career start. Any repeat of that effort should get the job done today. She didn’t face much in her Maiden score and steps up in class. She’s going to take alot of money and should be a huge favorite in here. I’ll try to beat her. Win Contender
2 Another Cleeshay hasn’t been competitive versus Stakes company since breaking her Maiden by over 9-lengths last year at the Spa. Gal gets some much needed class relief today. Don’t Ignore
Selections 3-1-2-7
Belmont at the Big A Race 9
5 Cdakhat is an intriguing Longshot in here. Filly has been running well on the dirt versus a bit weaker. In two starts on the turf down in South Florida, this Filly showed some promise versus a tough group of Maidens. Her Turf speed figures make her a Player in this 50k claiming event. She’s now in a new barn of the claim and gets an exceptional turf Jock Jose’ Lezcano in the irons. Live Longshot
2 Linarite has been a solid performer in these turf sprints but has only found the winners circle two times in 24 starts. She usually cashes a paycheck having 8 placings and 8 third place finishes in those 24 career starts. She’s a good bet to hit the board today. Major Player
4 Mendrel ships in via Pimlico for the very talented trainer Brittany Russell. This Mare was last seen defeated a softer group than she faces today at 5 Furlongs. I’m not totally convince this daughter of Blame can get the extra distance today. Use Underneath
Selections 5-2-4-6
Churchill Downs Race 6
3 Warlander was overmatched in the Grade 1 American Turf last out, finishing dead last. Colt faces a much easier group today and his work tab looks tight. Trainer Steve Asmussen administers second time juice today. Top Pick
7 Papiamento adds the blinkers and gets an upgrade to Jockey Brian Hernandez, who has been a fire of late. Colt fits well here. Win Contender
6 Seven Wonders is 4/5 on the morning line which is insane. This 6-year-old hasnt seen race day in over 9 months and only sports 1 win in 16 lifetime starts. He does drop in class and his turf speed figures are amongst the highest in the field but at 4/5 that’s not a win bet I want. Use with Caution
Selections 3-7-6-1
Churchill Downs Race 8
3 St Armand’s Key hasn’t been out of the Superfecta in his last 8 starts and has made 3 trips to the winners circle two times. This Gelding is model of consistency and always puts in a top effort. He’s a two-time winner at this distance and Jamie Torres, who has won on this Gelding, is back in the irons today. Win Contender
2 Orizzonte tries the blades for the first time today. This Paul McGee trainee is in good form. He exits from a sharp victory on the dirt here versus lower level Allowance company. He does have a solid turf pedigree and if he can handle the surface switch, he’ll be factor here at the wire. Win Contender
4 Johnny’s Fireball is a 3-time winner here at Churchill and drops in class. Win Contender