Stogie Picks Saturday 6/21/25 Thistledown,featuring Ohio Derby, Churchill Downs and Monmouth Park
Monmouth Park Race 6 Goldwood Stakes
6 Bel Pensiero pressed a fast pace in a local Stakes here on dirt and faded deep in the stretch drive to finish 5th. Mare cuts back in distance and returns to her preferred surface today. I’m hoping the 7 horse goes with the likely favorite in here, the #8 Epona’s Hope, setting up this stalker to pounce in the stretch run. Win Contender
3 Bingo’s Birkin sports a nice record here on the Monmouth Turf Course, winning 2 of 3 with a placing in 3 starts. I’ll draw a line through her most recent effort, a disappointing 7th place finish at 6 furlongs on the dirt. This Filly was coming off an extended layoff and not running on her preferred surface. She gets back on turf and gets an upgrade in the Jockey department. Win Contender
8 Epona’s Hope appears to be the speed of the speed in here. My only concern is the 7 horse has some nice early foot and is making her second start off the layoff. If the #7 doesn’t break well and this gal is left alone on the lead, she likely will take them gate-to-wire. Win Contender
Churchill Downs Race 9 Chicago Stakes
9 My Mane Squeeze had awful trip in the Grade 2 Ruffian and still managed to run a respectable third beaten by just under 4-lengths. Filly now cuts back to 7-furlongs and makes her third start off the the form cycle. Hopefully, with outside draw, this Filly can stay out of trouble. With a clean trip, I love this one’s chances to get her pic taken today. Win Contender
1 Emery gets some class relief after competing against a salty group of Grade 1 foes. Filly was neck away of being a multiple Grade 2 winner for trainer Brad Cox. Win Contender
11 Zeitlos made a wide rally at Pimlico to win a local Stakes there at 6-furlongs. This daughter Curlin has made 9 trips to the winners circle in 18 Lifetime starts. She makes her second start off the layoff, an angle she has won on in the past. Jockey Flavien Prat jumps on this Mare for the first time. She’s won 4 of 6 here at Churchill and offers a sweet value with the 8-1 morning line. Live Longshot
Selections 9-1-11-8
Thistledown Race 11 Lady Jacqueline Stakes
5 Candelelight Hours is a local hero making her third start after returning from a near 10-month hiatus. She’s finished in the money here at Thistledown an incredible 28 times in 30 starts primarily versus State Breds, while sporting 13 wins. The waters get much deeper in this open-company Stakes race, but this Mare has multiple wins at this distance and her trainer seems confident by entering this gal here. I’m not totally convinced the likely favorite in here is going fire, so I’ll take shot with this Thistledown win machine. Live Longshot
7 Peignor pressed a fast pace last out in local Stakes at this distance at Pimlico and had nothing left in the stretch run, finishing 4th beaten by a very good group of horses. Look for Jockey Jose Ortiz to change this one’s running tactics today. He likely will be in a stalking position in the second flight and make one big run at the front runners. Win Contender
6 Where’s My Ring has a definitive class edge in here but this Filly’s most recent effort was very disappointing, finishing a non-threatening 6th in the Grade 3 Shawnee. This Filly likely will take a lot of money come post time. She’s a vulnerable favorite in here. Use Underneath
Selections 5-7-6-3
Thistledown Race 12 Ohio Derby Grade 3
4 McAfee was last seen finishing a game second in the Grade 3 Peter Pan at the Big A. I love this Colt’s work tab, hilighted by a June 5th 1/48 bullet. I expect this lightly raced son of Cloud Computing to run them off their feet today. Top Choice
6 Clever Again tried to take some of the best 3-years-olds gate-to-wire in the Grade 1 Preakness to no avail. Colt faces a much easier task today. Win Contender
2 Chunk of Gold didn’t get the best of trips in the Kentucky Derby and finished 9th. Prior to his Derby effort, this Colt finished a solid second in two Grade 2’s. He’ll be flying late in the stretch. Major Threat 10