Stogie's Florida Derby Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 29, 2025

Oaklawn Park Race 8 Oaklawn Mile Grade 3

7 Payne takes a huge step up in class after demolishing 50K claimers. This Veteran 10-year-old was claimed off that 8-length score and now runs for the David Jacobson barn. This Gelding has reeled off 4 straight victories versus much lesser competition but his late-pace numbers in all those efforts have been stellar. He likely gets a perfect pace set up today and comes flying home at the wire. The 15-1 morning line is just too juicy to pass up. Live Longshot
3 Banishing was head away from winning his fourth race in a row. He nearly went gate to wire versus a large of 14 in the Grade 3 Razorback, reluctantly succumbing at the wire by just head. This Gelding is as game as they come and should be a player at the finishing line. Win Contender
8 Saudi Crown has faced some salty runners in the past and is always a threat to go gate-to-wire. I just feel he’s a beatable favorite and not the same horse he once was. Use with Caution

3 The Queens MG was last seen winning the Grade 2 Davona Dale here at this distance. Filly has tactical speed and should positioned just off the lead today. I expect a top effort today as this gal makes her third start of the form cycle. Top Pick
4 Five G was a 9-length victor in the Cash Run Stakes here at this distance two races back. Filly ran an impressive second in a Grade 3 next out. She’s the controlling speed in here and will be tough to catch at the wire. Win Contender
2 Early On was able to close into a tepid early pace in the Virginia Oaks, finishing second by just a half-length. A faster pace today would set up this closer up for a surprising finish. Live Longshot

1 Take Charge Milady had an awful trip last out in the Grade 3 Honeybee. I’ll draw a line through that race. This Filly won by 5 lengths in his previous start over this dirt track here at Oaklawn. A cleaner trip today puts this gal right there at the wire. Win Contender
3 Kinzie Queen has shown some tremendous late foot in his last two races. Filly will benefit from a likely hot pace up front. Live Longshot
5 Quietside has yet to run a bad race in 6-lifetime starts. Filly recently ran career top when defeating a large field of 13 in the Grade 3 Honeybee. Win Contender

8 Coal Battle recent Grade 2 Rebel winner has been disrespected at the windows in his last 3 starts and has proven his critics wrong by winning all of those races. Colt is battle-tested and undefeated on the dirt. I’ve been high on this Colt since his Springboard mile victory. This is a versatile runner who can run up to his competition. I expect the #5 Speed King to press the Baffert horse early which will set the table for Coal Battle to run them down in the stretch drive. Top Pick
6 Sandman has been knocking on the door in his last two starts here at Oaklawn. He looks like a horse who’s screaming for more distance which he gets today. Win Contender
9 Cornucopian is the wild card here. This Bob Baffert trainee ran a triple-digit number on debut while sprinting over this dirt track, winning by nearly 6-lengths. He now faces tougher and stretches out another 3 furlongs in distance. If no one goes with this 1.1k purchase early, it could lights out for the rest of the field. Win Contender

10 Sovereignty has won back-to-back Graded Stakes including late running victory in the Grade 2 Foutain of Youth Stakes here at Gulfstream. I believe this Billy Mott trainee will relish the mile and an eighth distance today. I’m not crazy about post-draw but this ones talent should overcome the bad post. Top Pick
4 Disruptor enters here off a dominant Maiden win for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won this race numerous times. Colt is another in here who will have to stretch out in distance and based on this one’s pedigree, he should be able to handle the added distance. This is a big ask off the Maiden score but I never count out a Todd Pletcher-trained horse in the Florida Derby. Win Contender
8 Madaket Road has been training exceptionally and gets Money Mike Smith in the irons. Don’t Ignore