Stogie’s Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 2, 2025

Churchill Downs Race 6 Alysheba Stakes Grade 2

• 2 Locked returns after a dominating near 9-length victory in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap. Colt likely gets an ideal pace set up as there is plenty of want the lead types signed on in this Grade 2. This son of Gun Runner sports the best late pace figures that towering over this field. Jockey Jose Ortiz has won 3 of 4 starts aboard this Todd Pletcher trainee is in the irons. Win Contender
• 4 Fierceness hasn’t been seen since his second place finish in the Breeders Cup Classic. Colt set a blistering pace in the Classic and was still game at the wire. On his best day he can handle this group at this distance, however the 6-month layoff is a concern for the 6/5 morning line favorite. Win Contender
• 3 Hall of Fame comes off a career top when finishing second to runaway winner Touchuponastar in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap. Colt has tactical speed and should be just off pace today. He should get first run at the pace setters and will need to hold off Locked in the stretch drive. Major Threat

Selections 2-4-3-5

Churchill Downs Race 7 La Troienne Stakes Grade 1

• 4 Raging Sea hasn’t seen the starting gate since finishing a good second to Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna in the Breeders Cup Distaff, six months ago. She’s a proven runner off this type of layoff. Mare has been training exceptionally well for trainer Chad Brown and if anyone has a chance to upset the Queen, I believe this gal fits the bill. Win Contender
• 2 Thorpedo Anna is an outright superstar who always brings her A game. She’s won her last 8 of 9 races with only loss coming in the G1 Travers versus the boys. Win Contender
• 1 Dorth Vader makes his second start off the layoff after finishing a solid second versus weaker off a 10-month layoff. I’ve always like this Mare. She’s a Grade 2 winner whose career has been marred by injuries. She should move forward off her last race. Can she upset the top two, I don’t think so, but I’ll use this bomber in the deep exotics. Don’t Ignore

Selections 4-2-1-7

Churchill Downs Race 9 Eight Belles Stakes Grade 2

• 2 Evanescence is an intriguing Longshot in here. She comes out of a career best effort when defeating Allowance/Optional 125kN1 foes Keeneland. She’s lightly raced with plenty of upside. There’s rain in the forecast for today and this gal does her best running on an off track. She broke her Maiden in the slop right here at Churchill. Live Longshot
• 5 Verity is another in here who is lightly raced and relishes an off track. Filly ran a near triple digit number in the slop at Keeneland when she dominated the Grade 2 Beaumont by over 5-lengths. Win Contender
• 10 Impulse Buy must be respected. Filly has finished no worse than second while sporting 2 trips to the winner’s circle. She has a win over this surface here but has been off for over 5 months. If she’s ready first off the bench, she’ll be a player. Don’t Ignore

Selections 2-5-10-7

Churchill Downs Race 11 Kentucky Oaks Grade 1

• 10 Take Charge Milady has been training well since finishing second in the Grade 1 Ashland. Her works have been dotted with bullets and appears to be sitting on Career defining effort. There’s plenty of speed in here to set up her late kick, plus with if the track comes up wet, she’ll have a great chance for the upset today. Live Longshot
• 11 Good Cheer has done nothing wrong in her 6 race Career. Filly has dominated every race including a 17-length Maiden win over a sloppy track here at Churchill. She’s a perfect 3-3 here which includes a Grade 2 Win. Likely Winner
• 14 Quietside has been a model of consistency versus the top fillies in the National. Gal has never finished out of the money in 7 lifetime starts, with 3 trips to the winner’s circle. Do not leave this Filly off your tickets. Major Threat

Selections 10-11-14-9