Stogie’s Horse Racing Picks for Kentucky Derby Day – Saturday, May 3, 2025

Churchill Downs Race 4 Knicks Go Stakes

• 12 Patriot Spirit ran a better than it looked 4th in the Grade 3 Essex last out. Colt dueled on the lead throughout and succumbed late in the stretch. He finds a much easier spot here today with the drop in class. He should relish this one-turn mile. He’s the controlling speed and at this level he has a chance to wire this group at a price. Win Contender
• 9 Liberal Arts sports a good record here at Churchill, winning 2 of 4 with 2 thirds. This son of Arrogate loves an off track which he likely gets today. Colt won a Grade 3 here in the slop in 2023. Win Contender
• 5 Kapuna has come back off a 7 month hiatus in fine form in 2025 with a win two back versus softer than a game second place effort in a local Stakes at Evangeline Downs. Major Threat

Selections 12–9-5-3

Churchill Downs Race 6 Pat Day Mile G2

• 3 California Burrito looked like a winner in the G3 Jeff Ruby until taking a bad step and losing all momentum, finishing a disappointing 7th. This son of Army Mule has run well here at Churchill which includes a 6-length maiden score in the slop by 6- lengths. The juicy 12-1 morning line is just too good to pass up. Live Longshot
• 2 Built was neck away from winning the Grade 3 Lecomte in slop at Fair Grounds three races back. Colt has regressed a bit in two Grade 2 efforts since. I’m going to forgive those efforts as the distances were just too long for this Colt. A cut back to this one turn mile is just what the doctor ordered. He’s a strong Player at this distance. Win Contender
• 6 Gaming has been disappointing lately after starting his career at Del Mar in stellar Fashion. He won the G1 Del Mar Futurity in his second start then placed second in the BC Juvenile. He’s yet to regain that form in 2025 but his second place finish in the Hot Springs is encouraging. Don’t Ignore

Selections 3-2-6-1

Churchill Downs Race 7 Turf Sprint Stakes

• 7 Think Big continues to ascend the class ladder. Gelding stepped up big time when winning the Grade 2 Shackertown at Keeneland on a turf course listed as “good.” If this race stays on the turf, this 4-year-old is a proven runner on a turf course with some give to it which will be the case today. I love this ones chances today. Win Contender
• 8 rogue Lightning is another who is proven on a good to soft turf. Gelding looked sharp in North American debut when finishing second to the aforementioned in the Shackertown. Flavien Prats ride back. Win Contender
• 10 Coppola will take them a long way, I just wish this race was 5 furlongs. Use Underneath

Selections 7-8-10-5 Off Turf- 7-1-6-3

Churchill Downs Race 8 Churchill Downs Stakes G1

• 11 Mullikin is perfect 2-2 over this main track here at Churchill which includes a 10-length Maiden win a few years back. This 5-year old was last seen finishing a strong second to a very good horse in Locked in the G2 Cigar mile. He’ll appreciate the cut back to 7 furlongs today. Win Contender
• 3 Book’em Dano is another in here who will relish the cut-back in distance. This one had an awful trip in the Cigar mile but still finished with some late interest. He has won 3 of 5 races at this distance, including a Grade 1. Win Contender
• 4 Giant Mischief rarely runs a bad race and loves Churchill. Don’t Ignore

Selections 11-3-4-10

Churchill Downs Race 10 Derby City Distaff G1

• 13 My Mane Squeeze makes her second start off the layoff after finishing a good third in the G1 Madison off a 6-month break. This closer has drawn a nice outside position and should get an ideal pace scenario to set up her late closing kick. She’s never finished off the board at this distance and has won a Grade 2 in the slop here at Churchill. Love this gals chances today. Live Longshot
• 8 Ways and Means hasn’t seen the starting gate in over 6-months but has been training lights out for trainer Chad Brown. She failed miserably in last years version of the Kentucky Oaks in the slop but has won 2 races since in the mud which includes a Grade 1 win in the Test at the Spa. Win Contender
• 2 Kopion is a West Coast shipper who must be respected. He has won his last two races, a Grade 1 victory two back and a recent Grade 2 win with a 106 Bris number. There’s no way this one’s 8-1 morning line holds up come post time. Win Contender

Selections 13-8-2-1

Churchill Downs Race 12 Kentucky Derby G1

• 8 Journalism draws an ideal post position for the Kentucky Derby. This son of Curlin has very good tactical speed early to get a fine position in this large field. I can see him laying just off the front runners early. He sports the best speed figures of this group and with a decent trip I believe he wins the run for the roses. Top Pick
• 18 Sovereignty reunites with his regular Jockey Junior Alvarado after finishing second in the Florida Derby. This Colt makes his third start of the form cycle and should love this mile an a quarter distance today. The pace in the Derby is usually hot early which should bode well for this Billy Mott trainee. With the defection of Rodriguez the pace might not be as fast as I wish, but this Godolphin Bred is a professional. He’ll show up today regardless. Win Contender
• 16 Coal Battle was a little jacked up before running in the Arkansas Derby and the Colt was too close to a blistering pace early, so I’m going to forgive that effort. Before that disappointing finish, this Colt was unbeaten on the dirt. Can he get this distance? I’m not sure but this Colt loves the slop and that in my mind gives him a shot at a price. He has defeated Sandman who is 6-1 and this guy is 30-1. I think he has a realistic shot in here on an off- track. Live Longshot
• 21 Beaza gets in the Kentucky Derby off the AE list with the scratch of Rodriguez. This West Coast runner ran a huge second in the Santa Anita Derby to Journalism. He’s a lightly raced son of McKinzie, an up in coming Sire and his connections paid 1.2 million He has plenty of upside but the draw is rough and I’m not convinced he wants this distance. Use Underneath
• 12 East Avenue of all the want the lead types in here, this one could be the one who stays on in the stretch drive. Colt should some serious gameness and resilience in the stretch drive of the Grade 1 Bluegrass, losing by just a nostril after setting a fast early pace. Don’t Ignore
• 9 Burnham Square is a solid closer who will need to work out trip. Use in deep Exotics

Selections 8-18-16-21-12-9