Stogie’s Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 19, 2025
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- 4 Tiz Secure was impressive in debut when sprinting on the West Coast. This Bob Baffert trainee won by nearly 5-lengths that day while clocking in with a 97 Bris number. Colt failed to fire next out when facing winners for the first time but I’ll forgive that effort as he was trying the turf for the first time. This one’s debut on the dirt was just too good and he has been training exceptionally since his last race. He’s bred to handle this distance and we’ll get a fair price come post time. Win Contender
- 7 Instant Replay has put together to 2 very strong races back-to-back, a 5-length victory two races back and a respectable third place finish behind Derby contender Tiztastic in the G2 Louisiana Derby. All systems go as this son of Maximum security makes his third start of the form cycle. Win Contender
- 2 Caldera laid an egg last out in the Louisiana Derby and was pulled up. Colt had an awful trip early and never got into the race. If this Colt can run back to his second place finish in the Sunland Derby, he’ll be a player here. Don’t Ignore
Selections 4-7-2-5
Keeneland Race 9 Elkhorn Stakes
- 9 Missed the Cut came back off a 9-month hiatus to run sixth in the G2 down in South Florida. This 6-year old lost all chance for victory when the early pace was set at a crawl, still this Cherie DeVaux trainee was making up ground in the stretch drive and finished with a good gallop out. Win Contender
- 6 Limited Liability has been a proven runner at these marathon distances and was last seen losing a close photo by a neck in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream. Gelding has won 2 of 3 races here at Keeneland with a placing in 3 starts over the lawn. Win Contender
- 4 Verstappen absolutely showed nothing last out on the All Weather track at Turfway Park. This one’s last two turf starts make him a factor here at a price. His trainer has been on fire here of late and this War Front Gelding could light up the tote board today. Live Longshot
Selections 9-6-4-2
Keeneland Race 10 Ben Ali Stakes Grade 3
- 7 Uno Mas Bourbon has run competitively versus better than he faces today. Colt has run third versus Rattle N Roll and third against Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show. No such studs are running in this Grade 3 today. Win Contender
- 1 San Siro was no match versus a very tough competition in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic at the Fair Grounds, finishing a tiring 4th. Gelding fits well here as he drops in class. Win Contender
- 6 Duke of Love ran an even fifth in return from a 2 and a half year layoff while sprinting down in South Florida. This son Cupid has back class and should take a step forward off his last race. Don’t Ignore
Selections 7-1-6-3
Oaklawn Park Race 10 Valley of the Vapors Stakes
- 8 Legal Empress has never been off the board in 7 Lifetime starts and she’s run well over this main track here at Oaklawn, winning 2 of 5 races with 2 placings and a third. Filly is a juicy 8-1 on the morning line and with no stand outs in here today she’s worth a play at a price. Live Longshot
- 1 Jenkin is another longshot in here who can score the upset today. Filly was no match in her last two starts in Grade 2 and 3 competition. Filly was facing the two best Filly’s in training right now, Good Cheer and Quietside. This is a much easier task today and I’ll take 12-1 all day on this daughter of Mineshaft. Live Longshot
- 4 Quantum Burst has been no worse than second in 5 Career starts while sporting 2 trips to the winner’s circle. My concern with this morning line favorite is that she’s been facing weaker. She’s a vulnerable favorite today. Use Underneath
Selections 8-1-4-3
Oaklawn Park Race 11 Oaklawn Park Handicap Grade 2
- 5 Alexander Helios stepped up in class last out and gamely defeated a strong field of 14 when winning the Grade 3 Razorback by a head. This Saffie Joesoph Jr trained son of Cairo Prince is in the best form of his career. I expect another top notch effort. Win Contender
- 4 Skippylongstocking sports some of the best and consistent late pace numbers of his rivals in here today. His lone Oaklawn Park start was a dominating Grade 2 win. Win Contender
- 7 Banishing has been a model of consistency winning 5 of his last 7 races with two placings. My only concern is this mile and an eighth distance. I prefer this guy at a mile and a sixteenth or less. Use Underneath
Selections 5-4-7-8
