Stogie's Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 8, 2025

Aqueduct Race 9 Gander Stakes

4 Soontobeking appears to be a horse who will appreciate the added distance today. Colt was no match for the top two last out in local Stakes for NY Breds. However, I believe this Colt has a good score for the upset here. I anticipate a solid pace up front which should set up nicely for this son of King for a Day. Win Contender
3 Mo Plex makes his 3-year-old debut after a solid 2-year-old campaign where he Finished third in the Grade 1 Champagne. Colt has been training well for his return and I expect a strong effort from this Jeremiah Englehart trainee. Win Contender.
5 National Identity comes out of a strong second-place finish versus a very good horse in Sand Devil in a local Stakes here. He earned a 96 Bris number that day, a number that if repeated would crush the competition today. My concerns are that this Colt routes for the first time today, couldn’t run by the winner in his last two races, and could bounce off such a strong effort. He likely will be pounded at the windows, so I’ll try to beat him today. Use with Caution

6 Fionn has been progressing nicely, raising her turf speed figures in her last two starts which include a victory when facing winners for the first time. Filly was able to close into a pedestrian pace that day and get the victory with a strong gallop out. She should get an ideal pace set up today and likely will mow them down in the stretch drive. Top Pick
2 Play With Fire was an impressive debut winner on turf at the Fair Grounds two races back. Gal was no match when facing winners last out but I’ll forgive that effort as she was coming off a layoff and ran on dirt. She gets back on the green today and has been training exceptionally for her second race of 2025. Win Contender
1 Love and Poetry should great improvement in the second career start when breaking Maiden here at the Fair Grounds last out. Any move forward puts this Filly in the mix. Don’t Ignore

9 Nitrogen exits from a come-from-behind victory in the Ginger Brew Stakes over on the East Coast of Florida. This Mark Casse trainee had outrun her odds in two Grade 1’s, finishing third in both at double-digit odds. Filly fits well here. Win Contender
7 Opulent Restraint makes her first start in 2025 for trainer Chad Brown after winning two of three in 2024. Brown must like what he sees in this daughter of Dubawi to run her in this Grade 3 for her first start as a 3-year-old. Win Contender
10 Pretty Lavish must be respected, she’s unbeaten in two career starts, with a win over this turf course versus Allowance/Optional 75k types. Win Contender

1 Owen Almighty appears to be the controlling speed in here and draws the rail today. Colt has finished no worse than second while sporting two trips to the winner’s circle. This Colt showed true grit when battling a very good horse in John Hancock. I expect this Colt to grab the lead from the start and never look back. Top Pick
2 Chancer McPatrick hasn’t seen race day in over 4 months. Colt had reeled off 3 straight victories to start his career which included 2 Grade 1 scores. Colt was last seen finishing a disappointing 6th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Colt has looked extremely sharp in his morning work and appears to be sitting on a huge effort. Win Contender
5 Filoso gets first-time blinkers from a trainer who hits 29% winners when he slaps on the eye cups. This Colt has shown the ability to make up ground despite a slow pace upfront. If somehow a speed duel develops early, I like this 15-1 shot to run them down late. Live Longshot

5 Tarifa has been off for over three months but I like how this Brad Cox-trained Filly has trained up to this race. Cox has the confidence to run her here versus some very salty competition. I believe this gal will be overlooked at the windows and we’ll get some nice odds cone post time. Don’t sleep on this Multiple Grade 2 winner. Win Contender
3 Cavalieri is unbeaten in 3 career starts, including a Grade 3 last out for trainer Bob Baffert. Plenty of upside for this 900k purchase. Win Contender
6 Alpha Bella rarely runs a bad race. The problem is this gal rarely wins. Use Underneath