Stogie’s Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 10, 2025
Stogie
Stogie is a seasoned horse racing bettor with over two decades of trackside experience and a knack for spotting winners before the odds even shift. Born into a family that spent more weekends at the paddock than the park, Stogie’s love for the sport runs deeper than most—rooted in the dirt, sweat, and thunder of hooves at full gallop.
He’s not your average tipster. Stogie blends old-school instinct with data-driven insights, studying race forms like sacred texts and following stables and jockeys the way others track stock tickers. His bets aren’t guesses—they’re calculated plays grounded in real-world edge and gut feel honed from thousands of hours at tracks from Saratoga to Santa Anita.
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- 8 Hey Bertie was the debut winner on the dirt two races back and followed the effort with a rallying victory on the turf at the Fair Grounds. I love to see a Maiden defeating winners at first asking. Don’t sleep on this undefeated Cherie DeVaux trainee. Win Contender
- 11 Warming looked mighty professional in debut 11 months ago over the blades at the Big A. Filly made a sweeping 3-wide move and won by over 2 lengths. The 11-month layoff is an obvious concern but trainer Graham Motion has been successful with this type of layoff. Win Contender
- 7 Lovely Emma is the controlling speed in here and likely will take them a long way. Filly has been in the lead at the top of the stretch in all 4 of her lifetime starts. She was last seen dominating a large field of 10 at the Fair Grounds at 5 and a half furlongs on the blades. She stretches out an extra furlong today which just might be her undoing. Use Underneath
Selections 8-11-7-3-6
Belmont at the Big A Race 10 Ruffian Stakes Grade 2
- 9 Gun Song disappointed last out when finishing third down in South Florida. I’m going to forgive that effort as this gal was making her first start off a nearly 5-month hiatus. Filly has back class and was just a neck away from beating superstar Thorpedo Anna in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx. The 8-1 morning line would be a gift to this daughter of Gun Runner. Top Pick
- 10 My Mane Squeeze has been an ultra-consistent sort who has finished in the money 12 times in 14 starts while sporting 6 trips to the winner’s circle. She’s a Grade 2 winner who will be tough to beat as she makes her second start off the bench. Win Contender
8 Joey’s Pride has been facing some salty competition and is a perfect 2 for 2 here at the Big A. Don’t Ignore
Selections 9-10-8-3
Belmont at the Big A Peter Pan Stakes Grade 3
- 8 Captain Cook appears to be the controlling speed in here. With that lack of want the types in here, this Colt should be on the front end today or forwardly placed. There is some cheap speed to his inside but Manny Franco knows his horse well and shouldn’t hook up early with cheaper horse. This Colt pressed a fast pace in the G2 Wood Memorial and was no match for the winner Rodriguez. No such beast is in the race today. I love this Colt’s chances in here. Top Pick
- 4 Hill Road is a closer who sports the fastest late pace numbers of his rivals in here but needs a quick early pace upfront. I’m not sure he gets that scenario today. He’ll be motoring late. Win Contender
- 3 Surfside Moon has tactical speed and should get a good position early. Colt ran a bang up second to Captain Cook in the Withers Stakes at 33-1. He regressed a bit when finishing third in the Fredrico Teso Stakes at Laurel. I think this Colt shows up today with a solid effort. Don’t Ignore
Selections 8-4-3-6
Churchill Downs Race 10 Mamzelle Stakes
- 4 Kilwin didn’t get the best of trips last out and finished a disappointing 6th in the Linnestone Stakes. Filly has shown a strong late turn of foot in these turf sprints. I believe she gets the right set up to showcase her late run. She’ll be motoring in the stretch drive. Live Longshot
- 3 Abientot is another in here who will benefit from a likely hot pace. Filly was last seen finishing a rallying third in the Limestone Stakes. She’s a Grade 3 winner making her second start off the layoff. Win Contender
- 9 Shisospicy has won back-to-back races since switching surfaces to the blades. She has been the controlling speed in all her 5 career starts, winning 3 of them. She might not get an easy lead today as Lovely Emma to her outside might go with her. She could softened up a bit and might falter late. She’s a talented runner who just might prove me wrong. Major Player
Selections 4-3-9-8-14
