Stogie’s Picks Saratoga and Horseshoe Indianapolis, featuring the Indiana Derby Saturday 7/5/25
Saratoga Race 10 Kelso Stakes Grade 3
3 Think Big stretches out to a mile today after running mainly in turf sprints. This Gelding has achieved multiple Grade 2 victories while running at the shorter distances. He has a win at 7 furlongs on the dirt and his pedigree suggests he’ll get the distance. I expect him to lie off the pace-setters and make one big run in the stretch drive. Top Choice.
5 Nantasket Beach enters here off two back-to-back victories while climbing the class ladder. This son of Street Boss is a 5-time winner in 6 starts at this mile distance on the blades. He once again steps up in class and has worked sharply since his last victory. Win Contender
2 Intellect rallied to be second last out in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes here at the Spa a month ago. This 4-year-old sports the best late pace figures in here and if any pace develops upfront, this closer will be picking them off late. Flavien Prat rides this one back. Win Contender
Selections 3-5-2-4
Saratoga Race 11 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes Grade 1
5 Fionn has never finished off the board in 6 Lifetime starts while sporting 4 trips to the winners circle. Filly was last seen getting her first Graded Stakes victory when defeating a field of 9 in the G3 Regret Stakes at Churchill. I like this gal’s chances to pull the upset. Win Contender
7 Nitrogen will be your overwhelming favorite come post time and rightfully so. This Mark Casse trainee has reeled off 5 straight victories which include a 17-length victory in the slop here at the Spa. Win Contender
1 Warming was able to close into a pedestrian pace and finished with authority when defeating Allowance/Optional 75k N1 types. The waters get much deeper here for this daughter of Global Campaign. But this Filly is lightly raced and should relish this mile and a eighth distance. Live Longshot
Selections 5-7-1-2
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 11 Indiana Oaks Grade 3
1 Sturgeon Moon makes her first start in the Billy Walden barn, Walden hits at a respectable 21% winners with newbies to his stable. This Filly hasn’t seen Race day in over 7- months but her work tab has been dotted with bullets. She’s a little light in the speed department versus the top two in here, but she just might get a perfect setup if the two favorites go at it early. I believe this gal is sitting on a top effort. Live Longshot
2 Clicquot chased a fast pace last out and was able to get by the pace-setter and draw off by nearly 2 lengths. A very sharp effort considering this filly was facing winners for the first time and routing for the first time. Win Contender
3 Deloraine is another in here who could make some noise at a price. Filly ran a solid third to the dominant Nirogen two races back in the Florida Oaks on the turf at Tampa. Filly followed up with another third-place finish in a Grade 3 in the dirt at the Big A I which Jockey Mike Smith seemed to move this gal too early. Money Mike rides back today and should be a bit more patient on this Filly today. Win Contender
Selections 1-2-3-5
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 12 Indiana Derby
9 Instant Replay has won 3 of his last 4 races including the Texas Derby at Lone Star last out. Colt faces a tougher task today but he’s in form and his late pace numbers are amongst the best in here. He’ll be motoring late. Win Contender
7 Big Truzz is a lightly raced son of Justify who exits from a very sharp third-place finish in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. This Colt has been training lights out since and appears to be sitting on a huge effort. Win Contender
6 Tip Top Thomas is the controlling speed in here and if he’s left alone on the front end, it could all be over for the rest of the field. Don’t Ignore