Stogie’s Stakes Picks: Tampa Bay Downs & Santa Anita Betting Analysis for Today – February 7, 2026

Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 Pelican Stakes

5 Track Mate should take advantage of a likely hot early pace today. This son of Union Rags didn’t want any part of that mile distance last out in the Cherokee Mile. He cuts back to 6-furlongs today where he is a 4-time winner in 6 starts. Win Contender 

6 Silver Slugger has won an incredible 8 of 9 races here at Tampa and 6 of 10 at this 6 furlong distance. Jockey Sonny Leon needs to be careful not to engage with the want-the-lead types and sit just off the pacesetters today. Win Contender 

3 Concrete Glory is one of many in here who likes to wing it on the front end and is likely the only one who will be hanging around at the wire. Major Threat

Selections 5-6-3-4

Tampa Bay Downs Race 11 Sam F. Davis Stakes 

6 Renegade is still considered a Maiden but actually crossed the finishing line first two starts back. Colt was placed second via disqualification. He ran a sharp second in the Grade 2 Remsen at a mile a an eighth. Colt should appreciate the cut back in distance today. Top Pick

1 Confessional didn’t disappoint when finishing second to the up and coming Nearly when taken on winners for the first time. I expect another solid outing and possibly winning this Kentucky Derby Prep. Win Contender 

5 Ocelli is a little light in the speed department but has shown some good late foot in 3 lifetime starts. Use Underneath 

Selections 6-1-5-3

Santa Anita Race 6 D Wayne Lukas Stakes Grade 2

5 Splendora is a Breeders Cup champ who should win for fun today. She’s by far the most accomplished in here and even off the extended layoff, she should dominate this field. Top Pick

7 Formula Rossa has done little wrong in 4 career starts. Filly has been no worse than second while winning her first two starts. She recently ran strong second in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes over this main track here. Major Player

2 Lemon Muffin is not in the best form but has shown a good late kick in the past when the early pace is hot. I like that the new trainer cuts this gal back to 7-furlongs, where she’s been successful. Live Longshot 

Selections 5-7-2-4

Santa Anita Race 8 Robert B. Lewis Stakes Grade 3

3 Cherokee Nation offers the best value in this competitive Grade 3. Yes, this Colt is still a maiden but he’s shown promise and just might end up worth that $1,150,000 price tag. Colt was able to close into some pedestrian fractions last out and came home well. A faster early pace today will set up his late kick. Win Contender 

4 Intrepido hasn’t seen race day since his failed effort in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. He now gets  back to Santa Anita where he won the Grade1 American Pharaoh Stakes. Win Contender 

1 Desert Gate is another in here who enters off a layoff. Colt is a Grade 3 winnerand Grade 1 placed in just 4 career starts. If this Colt is anywhere near 100% fit, he’ll be tough to beat. Major Threat

Selections 3-4-1-2

Stogie Plays for Today

Tampa Bay Downs Race 11

$30 Win #6 Renegade
$1 Trifecta Box 1,5,6

Santa Anita Race 8

$10WPS #3 Cherokee Nation
$1 Trifecta Box 1-3-4
.50 cent Superfecta Box 1,2,3,4 =$48

TODAY’S BANKROLL $78