MLB Betting Preview: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Matchup at a Glance
When: Wednesday, July 17, 2019 at 7:10 PM EST
Where: Fenway Park in Boston, MA.
Moneyline: Boston Red Sox -250
Betting Total: 11
The Red Sox and Blue Jays will play the third of a four-game series after splitting the first two. Toronto won last night's game 10-4 by roughing up Boston's new acquired Andrew Cashner.
They got him for 5 runs in 5 innings on 8 hits and 2 home runs. Their offense was led by Justin Smoak's 15th homer and Teoscar Hernandez's 9th of the season.
Boston will send Eduardo Rodriguez (10-4, 4.43 ERA) to the mound against Aaron Sanchez (3-13, 6.22 ERA). Rodriguez is in the best stretch of his season. He hasn't lost in 6 starts and is coming off a 7 inning, 1 run, 10 strikeout performance against the Dodgers. Things are the exact opposite for Sanchez who has lost his last 9 starts and 12 straight decisions. Since the start of May he has a 8.05 ERA.
The Red Sox are a -250 favorite and the over/under is 11.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are 51-44 and a surprising 22-25 at home. Boston has lost 3 of 4 following a 5 game winning streak. Boston sits 3 games back of the second wild card spot and must pass Oakland and Cleveland if they are to make the playoffs.
Rodriguez has turned it on after a slow start. With the recent struggles of Chris Sale, and the disappointing season by Rick Porcello, the Sox have needed Rodriguez's recent hot streak. He has a 1.32 WHIP on the season and has 116 strike outs in 109 2/3 innings. Against the Blue Jays, he is 3-4 with a 4.80 ERA in 13 career starts.
The Red Sox haven't had much success against Sanchez with a team OPS of .690 in 179 at bats. Jackie Bradley Jr. leads the way at 5 for 18 with a double and a homer. J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts also have a home run against Sanchez.
Boston has Steven Wright, Mitch Moreland and Nathan Eovaldi on the IL.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays enter at 36-60 and 18-30 on the road. They have lost 6 of their last 9 games.
Sanchez, who was once a Cy Young contender is having one of the worst seasons in baseball. Besides for one start against Baltimore, he has given up 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 8 starts. Sanchez has a 1.75 WHIP and opponents are hitting .290 against him. Sanchez is 4-4 with a 3.84 ERA in 21 career games against the Red Sox.
Toronto hitters have struggled against Rodriguez with a combined OPS of .637 in 71 career at bats. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 2 for 3 and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 4 for 9, no one else is hitting above .250.
Toronto has almost identical number against righties and lefties. They have an OPS of .710 against left-handed pitching compared to .709 against right-handed. Eric Sogard has been the Jays hottest hitter since the break hitting .409 (9 for 22) with 3 doubles and a home run.
Toronto has Clayton Richards and Dalton Pompey on the IL, and Ken Giles is listed as day-to-day.
No one is a big fan of betting on games with a -250 line but this game is screaming Red Sox. Sanchez has been just awful, and Rodriguez has been the Red Sox best pitcher over the last month. Boston needs to get on roll if they want a chance at the playoffs, and every game is important. We like Boston at -250 if you can stomach the bet, we also like the under 11 since neither team has had much success against the opposing pitcher.