MLB Betting Pick: Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals – Thursday, July 4, 2019

by | Jul 4, 2019 | Baseball

Matchup at a Glance

Where: Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
When: Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 1:15 PM ET
Spread: Cleveland Indians -120
Total: 9.5

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The Cleveland Indians enter this game with a record of 47-38 and have won three of their last five games including three wins in a row.  They are coming off a win in game two of this series on Wednesday by a score of 4-0. 

The Kansas City Royals enter this game with a record of 29-58 and have lost four of their last five games including three losses in a row.  They are coming off a loss in game two of this series.

The Cleveland Indians are listed as -120 money line favorites over the Kansas City Royals.Let’s take a closer look at these two teams and we’ll start with the underdog Kansas City Royals. 

Kansas City Royals

It’s going to be awhile before the Kansas City Royals will be a competitive team again as they are going to finish with one of the worst records in the MLB and are just in the beginning of the rebuild mode. Kansas City is 29-58 overall, 16-27 at home and 21-48 as an underdog this season. 

The Royals will send Homer Bailey to the mound for game three of the series. Bailey is 7-6 on the season with a 4.87 ERA while striking out 78 over 85 innings pitched. He is also 2-1 in his last three starts against the Indians while allowing an average of 1.67 runs and striking out an average of 6.33 in those games. 

Jorge Soler leads the team in home runs and RBIs with 23 home runs and 57 RBIs. Whit Merrifield leads the team in runs with 60. 

Kansas City is averaging 4.29 runs per game which ranks 26th in the MLB. The Royals are allowing an average of 5.17 runs per game which ranks 23rd in the MLB.

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Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians are in danger of being dethroned as the AL Central champions unless they become more consistent and have a strong second half of the season. Cleveland is 47-38 overall, 26-18 on the road and 39-31 as a favorite this season. 

The Indians will send Zach Plesac to the mound for game three of the series. Plesac is 3-3 on the season with a 3.61 ERA while striking out 32 over 42 1/3rd innings pitched. He will be facing the Royals for the first time in his career. 

Carlos Santana leads the team in home runs, RBIs and runs with 18 home runs, 51 RBIs and 57 runs. 

Cleveland is averaging 4.36 runs per game which ranks 22nd in the MLB. The Indians are allowing an average of 4.31 runs per game which ranks 5th in the MLB. 

Cleveland Wins Game Three

The Indians may be inconsistent this season, but they are a better team than the Royals and still have a lot of talent with their pitching staff as evident by allowing the 5th fewest runs per game in the MLB. Both teams are 5-5 in their last ten matchups of the series with the Royals outscoring the Indians by an average of 4.80 to 4.20 in those games. 

The Indians are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Royals while outscoring Kansas City by an average of 6.00 to 2.67 in those contests. I look for the most recent trend to continue with an Indians win over the Royals in game three of the series on Thursday.  

Spooky Express Free Play – Cleveland Indians – 120

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