MLB Betting Preview: Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Tuesday, June 11, 2019

by | Jun 10, 2019 | Baseball

Matchup at a Glance

When: Tuesday, June 11, 2019 at 8:10 PM EST

Where: Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas

Moneyline:  Houston -130/Milwaukee +120

Betting Total: 9 runs

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The Milwaukee Brewers (38-28, 16-15 away) travel to Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas to take on the Houston Astros (24-9 home) in a matchup between National and American league teams in the first game of a short two game series.  

Freddy Peralta (3-2, 5.11 era) takes the mound for the visiting Brewers and he will oppose Houston’s Brad Peacock (5-3, 3.20 era).  

This is the first meeting between these two clubs this season.  

Game Location

This game is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas with the first pitch scheduled to take place at 8:10 PM EST

Betting Odds

BetOnline has set the line for this game at Houston -130/Milwaukee +120 and the over/under has been set at 9 runs

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee is tied with the Chicago Cubs for 1st place in the NL Central.  They have a 5½ game lead over 3rd place St Louis. The Brewers are on a four game winning streak and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games.  

Milwaukee is scoring 5.03 runs per game while giving up 4.85 runs per game.  That offensive output is definitely above average with a ranking of 12th in baseball in runs scored per game.  Slightly worse when it comes to pitching & defense with a ranking of 18th in baseball.

Considering the pitching injuries they are dealing with 18th in not too bad and should only get better.  I am a little surprised Milwaukee’s record is as good as it is, they run differential is only +12 so far this season.

When it comes to team leaders you only have to mention one name.  That name is Christian Yelich. He leads in just about all offensive categories.  Batting average (.340), on base percentage (.446), home runs (24), rbi’s (53), hits (72).  There are others as well, those are just the main ones.

Freddy Peralta (3-2, 5.11 era) will be making his 8th start of the season.  His previous three appearances came out of the bullpen. Due to injuries to the staff he has moved into the rotation for the time being.   In his last start vs Miami it was perhaps his best start of the season. It was his longest outing going 6 innings.

He only allowed 1 run, on 4 hits and struck out 9 batters in a 5-1 victory.  With the injuries to the Brewers pitching staff they are certainly hoping for more efforts like that from him in the future. This is just his second year in the majors and he has a whopping 148 strikeouts in only 122⅓ innings pitched.  Peralta has never faced Houston in his short career.

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Houston Astros

Even this early in the season, Houston is looking to run away with the AL West.  They have a very comfortable 9½ game lead over 2nd place Texas. They are only on a one game winning streak but have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games.  

Houston is scoring 5.10 runs per game while giving up 3.66 runs per game.  We all know the Astros can hit the ball and score runs. It certainly shows as they are the 10th best team in baseball in runs scored per game.  What really make them outstanding this year is their pitching has been incredible as well.

They are ranked 3rd in fewest runs allowed per game, 1st in hits allowed per game, 3rd in fewest walks per game and 1st in strikeouts per game.  Combine that with that offense and they have to be one of the favorites to win the world series. That impressive combination gives them a run differential of +97. Very impressive.

Taking a look at Houston team leaders, we find with a .317 batting average Michael Brantley is setting the pace.  Alex Bregman leads the way with 18 home runs and 44 rbi’s. George Springer with a .389 on base percentage is leading the way, while Michael Brantley is leading with 78 hits.  

Brad Peacock (5-3, 3.20 era) lost his last start and it was an ugly loss to Seattle 14-1.  However he cannot be totally to blame. In fact he pitched 5 innings and gave up his only 2 runs in that 5th inning.  He left the game trailing only 2-0 when the bullpen imploded the rest of the way.

Brad only gave up 4 hits & 2 runs, while striking out 6 in those 5 innings.   That loss snapped a three game winning streak for him. Surprisingly Peacock has never faced Milwaukee in his career.

How can you not take Houston -130????

I don’t think I really need to explain this.  Nothing against Milwaukee as they have won 9 of their last 13 road games, so they are playing well.  I do like Peralta as well, but his era is a little high and facing the Astros in Houston is not going to do anything to lower that.  

As long as Yelich does not go crazy, Peacock should be able to control Milwaukee’s offense.  Houston also has one of the better bullpens in the league as well. I guess my only concern is this a trap?  

Why is this line only -130?  Maybe the smart money is on Milwaukee.  This line actually opened up at -140 and to my surprise dropped.  I just cannot bring myself to go the other way on this one. Win or lose, I am on the home team.

Spooky Express Free Play – Houston Astros -130

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