MLB Betting Preview: Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers – Saturday, July 13, 2019
Matchup at a Glance
Where: Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas
When: Saturday, July 13, 2019, at 7:05 PM ET
Moneyline: Houston Astros -130
Texas looks to open the second half with three consecutive wins.
Houston's bullpen gave up a 4 run lead allowing 2 runs in the 7th and 8th inning and then a walk off single by Danny Santana in the 9th.
Texas received homers from Shin-Soo Choo, Tim Federowicz, Danny Santana, Joey Gallo and Ronald Guzman.
Houston will send all-star Wade Miley (7-4, 3.28 ERA) to the mound against fellow all-star and left-hander Mike Minor (8-4, 2.54 ERA). Both pitchers come in on hot streaks. Miley has posted a 3.04 ERA over his last 9 starts, but the Astros are only 5-4. Minor is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA and opposing batters are only hitting .174 against him over his last 6 starts.
Houston is the favorite at -130, and the over/under is 9.5.
The Astros 57-35 and 24-21 on the road. Houston has lost the first two games of the second half but won 7 of their last 8 before the break.
Miley is having the best season of his career at age 32. His WHIP is 1.17, and he has given up 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. He hasn't had much success against Texas in his career. In 10 starts he is 3-5 with a 5.56 ERA. He did win his last outing against them at Minute Maid Park going 6 innings allowing 2 runs on 2 hits.
Houston hitters have hit Minor well in the past. In 147 plate appearances they have a team OPS of .846. Tyler White, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel and Max Stassi all have OPS's over 1.000 and they all have a home run, with Gurriel having 2. Houston has absolutely smashed left-handed pitching this year with an OPS of .873.
Houston has Brad Peacock, Aledyms Diaz and Carlos Correa on the IL, and Alex Bregman is listed as day-to-day.
The Rangers enter at 50-42 and are 31-17 at home.
Minor hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start since April 22nd. He had the best month of his career in June with a 1.70 ERA and a 3-0 record. He did have a rough last outing before the all-star break allowing 3 runs on 2 hits while walking 4 in 4 1/3 innings against the Angels. He has faced the Astros 13 times, with 10 starts, and has a 3-3 record with a 4.26 ERA. He has been better in his last 2 starts with a 1-1 record and a 2.25 ERA.
The current Rangers hitters haven't done all that well against Miley despite his less than stellar career numbers. They have a .619 OPS in 159 plate appearances. No one has an OPS over .800 and only Logan Forsythe has a home run against him. The Rangers, unlike the Astros, don't fair well against left-handed pitching. They have a team OPS of .721 compared to .799 against righties.
Texas has Hunter Pence and Yohander Mendez on the IL and Anderson Tejada is listed as day-to-day.
The career numbers say this should be a higher scoring game, as Miley and Minor have struggled in their careers against the division rivals. But, they are both having career years and are coming in pitching really well. The Astros also smash left-handed pitching, but with Bregman most likely out for the game, that is one less power bat in the middle of the lineup.
We really like the under 10 especially after yesterdays high scoring affair. Houston in just 42-41 as the favorite, while Texas is 40-24 as the underdog. We like that to continue as we are riding the Rangers at +120.