MLB Betting Preview: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins – Saturday, June 22, 2019
Matchup at a Glance
Where: Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
When: Saturday, June 22, 2019, at 2:15 PM ET
Moneyline: Minnesota Twins -180
They have split the first two with the Twins rallying to win 8 to 7 last night. Miguel Sano and CJ Cron homered and Minnesota scored 2 in the 7th and 3 in the 8th to overcome a 3-run deficit.
This was the 26th team, last in the majors, that Kansas City has lost a lead this season.
Today's pitching match-up is Jose Berrios (8-3, 2.86 ERA) for the Twins and Danny Duffy (3-3, 4.64 ERA) for the Royals. Berrios is coming off his best start of the season against Boston. He went 8 innings, striking out 10 and allowing 1 run on 5 hits.
He took the loss, as the Red Sox won 2-0, but he was fantastic. Duffy is coming off a 5 inning performance against Seattle where he allowed 4 runs over 5 innings. Minnesota is the favorite a -180, and the over/under is 9.5.
Minnesota is 49-25, and 25-13 on the road. The Twins have lost 4 of their last 6, but still hold a commanding 9 game lead over the Indians. Berrios has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He has a WHIP of 1.06, and has struck out 94 batters in 97.2 innings compared to only 17 walks. He is on a string of 5 straight quality starts, and only gave up 1 run in 4 of them.
He is 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA against Kansas CIty. He has not been quite as good at Kauffman Stadium, in his 6 starts he has not got a decision and has an ERA of 5.06.
Duffy has held the Twins offense down in the past. In 143 plate appearances he has allowed an OPS of only .654. Jake Cave is 1 for 2 with a homer, and Nelson Cruz is 5 for 15 with a home run. If you're looking for a player or two with some value in daily fantasy Cave has to be the guy if he gets the start.
The lefty vs. lefty match-up will keep people away and his number on the year aren't good. He will come at a CHEAP price. Minnesota does have an OPS of .867 against lefties and .866 in day games.
The Twins have Ehire Adrianza, Marwin Gonzalez, and Adalberto Mejia on the IL. Mitch Garver and Fernando Romero are listed as day-to-day.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals enter at 26-50, and are 15-24 at home. They have won 4 of their last 6 games.
One of Duffy's big issues this year is not being able to get lefties out. They are 16 for 50 for a .320 average this season. The veteran lefty is 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA against the Twins. Duffy has been very good against the Twins in his career. He 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA. The only team he has been better against in his career is Baltimore with a 2.17 ERA.
Berrios doesn't have great career numbers against the Royals but that is deceiving. Against current Royals he has held them to an OPS of .545 in 90 plate appearances. The only Royal with a homer off Berrios is Alex Gordon. Martin Maldonado is 2 for 5 and no other Kansas City player has an OPS above .800.
Kansas City has Adalberto Mondesi on the IL and Seuly Matias is listed as day-to-day. How many match-ups have you seen where both teams have a player named Adalberto on the IL?
Both pitchers have limited the current rosters to OPS's under .660 in their careers. Yes, this isn't the Duffy of old, but we still expect a low scoring game. The Twins are just a much better team, and the -180 seems pretty fair.
We expect Berrios to dominate the game and keep the Royals to 2 runs or less. We like a 4-2, 5 to 3 type game. We are on the Twins at -180 and the under 9.5.