MLB Betting Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins – Monday, May 27, 2019

by | May 27, 2019 | Baseball

Matchup at a Glance

Where: Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Date: Monday, May 27, 2019, at 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline: Minnesota Twins -103
Betting Total: 9.5 Runs

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The Brewers and Twins kick off a two-game series tonight in Minneapolis. The Twins are easily the most surprising team in MLB. They have the best record in baseball at 36-16 and are an offensive juggernaut.

Minnesota leads baseball in batting average, home runs, slugging, OPS, runs scored and run differential. With all the firepower in the AL, who would have guessed Minnesota to be the best offense in baseball?

Milwaukee sends Gio Gonzalez, who has been really good for the Brew Crew after being released by the Yankees, to the mound. Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA. The Twins counter with Michael Pineda who is 4-3 with a 5.43 ERA.

The Brewers won 9-1 yesterday behind an eight-nning, one-hit performance by Brandon Woodruff. Christian Yelich hit his league-leading 21st homer, as the Brewers hit five on the day. Minnesota is coming off a 7-0 shutout of the White Sox. Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario both hit three-run homers in the win.

The Brewers are slight favorites at -107, and the Twins are listed as -103, with an over/under of 9.5.

Sputtering Brewers

The Brewers enter at 30-24 and are 12-13 away from home. The win yesterday helped them avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the Phillies. The Brewers have lost five of their last eight games.

Gio Gonzalez has been one of the best starters after being acquired from the trash heap. In his five starts, his WHIP is 1.10, and more impressively, he has only given up one homer in his 26 1/3 innings. Keeping the ball in the park will be key against the Twins, who lead all of baseball in home runs. Gonzalez is 3-3 with a 6.43 ERA against Minnesota in his career, but in his last two starts at Target Field, his ERA is only 1.50.

Pineda has never faced the Brewers, but they do have a few guys who have had at-bats at previous stops. Yelich is 1 for 2 with a homer, and considering his home run barrage of late, he might be worth the high price if you are playing daily fantasy. Moustakas (2) and Thames also have a homer off of Pineda. Combined with Cain and Grandal, the five hitters have a combined OPS of 1.049 against the righty.

Travis Shaw and Manny Pina are both on the 10-day IL, and outfielder Corey Ray is listed as day-to-day.

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Red-Hot Twins

The Twins are 36-16 and 18-8 at home. They are 19-6 in May and have won 11 of 12 and six in a row. They are the definition of red hot.

Michael Pineda has been much better in his last three starts. He has gone a combined 19 innings, giving up only 15 hits and two walks while striking out 14. His biggest problem has still been the long ball. Of those 15 hits he's given up, seven were homers. While he has been able to minimize the damage by limiting base-runners, look for the Brewers to put a few in the stands today if the weather holds off.

The Twins do not have a lot of at-bats against the veteran Gonzalez. The Twins have a total of 37 at-bats against the lefty. CJ Cron has a homer and is 2 for 3, and Jason Castro is 2 for 4 with two doubles. But Minnesota is absolutely destroying left-handed pitching this year, with a team OPS of .883. Gonzalez's one homer allowed on the season total is in real jeopardy tonight.

The Twins have Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver on the 10-day IL. Akil Baddoo, Brusdar Graterol, and Luke Raley are all listed as day-to-day.

The Pick

If you just look at the pitching matchup, big advantage to the Brewers. Gonzalez has been much better than Pineda, but the Twins are streaking and mash left-handed pitching. The weather is going to be a huge factor. There is over a 50% chance of rain, and the wind is going to be howling in. There is a window after 7 pm where the rain should stop, but the wind will still be blowing in at over 10 MPH. We are going with the under today. If you were to put our feet to the fire, we would take the Twins at -103, but we think the under is the way to go here.

Free Pick: Minnesota Twins -103

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