MLB Betting Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Thursday, May 16, 2019

by | May 15, 2019 | Baseball

Matchup at a Glance

When:  Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 1:05 PM EST

Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Moneyline:  Phillies -123/Milwaukee +113

Betting Total: 8½ runs

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The (25-19, 9-11 away) Milwaukee Brewers travel to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to take on the (24-17, 15-8 home) Philadelphia Phillies in the final game of a 4 game series.  **Does not include last nights results

The teams have split the first two games with the 3rd game being played Wednesday night.  It will be Zach Davies (4-0, 1.54 era) pitching for the Brewers and he will oppose Zach Eflin (5-3, 2.47 era) for the Phillies.  

Phillies are currently leading the NL East by 3½ games, while the Brewers are in 2nd place trailing the first placed Cubs by 2½ games.

Game Location

This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with the first pitch scheduled to take place at 1:05 PM EST

Betting Odds

BetOnline has set the line for this game at Phillies -123/Milwaukee +113 and the over/under has been set at 8½ runs

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has won 7 of their last 10 games as Milwaukee continues to win games despite some very average team stats.  When taking a look at offensive team leaders, it is easy with Christian Yelich leading in most of them.

Yelich is leading in batting average (.328), onbase percentage (.446),  home runs (16) & rbi’s (38). Lorenzo Cain leads the team in hits with 47, but Yelich with 45 is right behind him too.

Milwaukee is scoring 4.75 runs per game and they are giving up 4.59 runs per game, with a run differential is +7.   The offensive output ranks them right in the middle of the pack at 14th in runs per game. They are slightly better than average with a #13 ranking in runs allowed per game.  

That feels right to me. Milwaukee feels like an average team based on some stats, that nobody pay attention to. Yet later on in the season you will look up and say “I didn’t think they were that good”.  I don’t think they get the respect they deserve by many, but that is probably a good thing in their eyes…..keeps the fires burning.

At 4-0, Zach Davies has not lost a game yet this season.   Even in his games where he did not get a decision he has certainly pitched well enough to win.  He currently has the 2nd lowest era in the national league.

His last outing he pitched 6⅓ innings allowing 1 earned run and 6 hits, with only 1 walk and 6 strikeouts in a game Milwaukee lost 2-1 at the Cubs in 15 innings.  The big question does he continue to pitch like that or is he due for a subpar outing and possibly his first loss.

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Philadelphia Phillies

Everybody is asking what is wrong with Philly?  Well they are in first place aren’t they? Just imagine when they are actually playing well.  Philadelphia has won 6 of their last 10 games. Believe it or not it has been pitching keeping them in first place, not Ryan Harper and all those offensive stars.  

After reading blogs about Phillies baseball, most of the city is upset about what little Bryce Harper has done, so when talking about team leaders there is one name that is missing and it is Harper.  Rhys Hoskins leads the team with 11 home runs, 35 rbi’s and a .408 on-base percentage. Jean Segura leads the team with a .308 batting average and Cesar Hernandez is leading in this with 45. That is shocking to me, nobody talks about this guy at all.  

Philadelphia is scoring 5.12 runs per game and they are giving up 4.22 runs per game, with a run differential is +37.  They are ranked 10th in runs scored per game. If certainly does not feel like they are that high with Harper slumping so badly.  In fewest runs allowed per game they are ranked 9th in baseball, which they are probably happy with starting pitching according to many was going to be the downfall of this team.  

It is safe to say that Zach Eflin has firmly has cemented his spot in the rotation behind Nola and Arrieta.  He currently has the lowest era of any Phillies pitcher at 2.47 and the most wins with 5. That says something when you have a guy like Aaron Nola on the staff.  He has been streaky so far winning his first two games, losing the next three and followed by three straight wins.

He last outing was a complete game gem in a 7-0 shutout of Kansas City allowing only 4 hits.  In fact his last three starts and wins were 7-0, 7-1 & 5-1. The only negative I can find so far is in his three losses, they were not close losing 4, 7 & 9 runs. So do we get that guy who can be really bad when he losses or the guy who has dominated in his wins?

UNDER! UNDER! UNDER!

If these two guys pitching throw like they have been, this could easily be a 1-0 or 2-1 type of game, but the line is 8½ runs.  That scares me a little as to why this line this high. Could it go over? Sure it could. But I am not betting it and not going against these pitchers in their current form.  

I am not calling Davies a great pitcher….but he is pitching great! There is a difference. Phils have more pressure at home to score runs and that makes hitters think too much.  Maybe that is what is happening. At the same time it is Phillies pitching that has them winning their share of games to make up for the underwhelming bats so far.

Eflin has only allowed 15 hits and only 2 runs in the last 3 starts.  I am on him to continue pitching well until he does not anymore. Everybody thinks all Phillies games are going to be 7-6. They are wrong. In fact the total is 18-23 unders this year. This should be another one. Hoping phils win, so how does Philadelphia 4 Milwaukee 2 sound?  Sounds good to me.

Spooky Express Free Pick – Under 8.5 Runs

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