MLB Betting Preview: Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets – Tuesday, July 16, 2019

by | Jul 15, 2019 | Baseball

Matchup at a Glance

When: Tuesday, July 16, 2019 at 8:10 PM EST

Where: Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota

Moneyline:  Minnesota -133/NY Mets +123

Betting Total: TBD

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An interleague matchup gets underway Tuesday night between the visiting NY Mets (42-51, 19-32 away) and the home team Minnesota Twins (58-34, 28-15 home) in the first game of a short two game set.  

Steven Matz (5-6, 4.89 era) gets the ball for the Mets and he will oppose the Twin’s Michael Pineda (6-4, 4.56 era).  

This will be the final series of the season between these two. 

They split the first two in New York in early April.  The Twins won the first game 14-8 and the Mets knotted the season series up at 1-1 with a 9-6 victory in game two.

Game Location

This game is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota with the first pitch scheduled to take place at 8:10 PM EST

Betting Odds

BetOnline has set the line for this game at Minnesota -133/NY Mets +123 and the over/under has been set at Not Available Yet

New York Mets

The NY Mets (42-51) are in 4th place in the NL East trailing the 1st Braves by 14½ games.  There is no catching them. However it does not look like a last place finish with the Marlins in the division.  The focus is on the wildcard.

Even though only 6 games back of the wildcard, they have 8 teams ahead of them. Unless they catch fire they might as well focus on 2020.  They are however on a small two game winning streak but have only won 5 of their last 10 games.  

The Mets are scoring 4.67 runs per game while giving up 5.14 runs per game.  Pete Alonso can not do it by himself. That offensive output is good for only 19th in baseball in runs scored per game.  Pitching has been a disappointment as well with a ranking of only 21st in baseball.

The staff is certainly better than those numbers.  It has been a rough year in New York to date. The Mets have a run differential of -44 this season. They can certainly with their talented pitchers beat anyone, but they have been known to lose to just about anyone too.  

Rookie Pete Alonso has been an amazing Met so far this season.  He leads the team with 30 home runs and 69 rbi’s. Of course he added the home run derby title to his young resume last week.  Jeff McNeil in only his second season with a .349 batting average & .410 on base percentage, along with 105 hits is setting the pace for the Mets.  Those two youngsters have the Mets thinking the future is bright and I couldn't agree more.

Steven Matz (5-6, 4.89 era) will be making his 17th start of the season for the Mets.  Matz is getting pushed up a day ahead of schedule with scheduled starter Zach Wheeler headed to the IL with shoulder fatigue.  So far in July he has been used in relief making two appearances and pitching just one inning, allowing three hits and no runs. 

His last start was June 29th vs Atlanta. He only pitched two innings giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and trailing 2-0. He was not able to return after a 70 minute rain delay.  You have to go back to June 8th when Matz picked up his last victory. Matz is 3-0 at home this season, but away from Citi Field is only 2-6 with a 7.07 era. He has never faced Minnesota in this career.  

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Minnesota Twins

Minnesota leads the AL Central by 6½ games over 2nd place Cleveland.  They just took 2 of 3 at Cleveland to open up the 2nd half and extend that lead over the Tribe.  

The rest of the division is not a factor the remainder of this season.  Minnesota is on a one game losing streak and has gone 5-5 in their last 10 games.  

Minnesota is scoring 5.68 runs per game while giving up 4.37 runs per game.  To the surprise of many, the Twins are the #1 ranked team in MLB in runs scored per game and 2nd in hits per game.  The pitching is holding up their end of the deal as well with a ranking of 8th in fewest runs allowed per game.

It is no wonder they are threatening to run away with the AL Central.  They have a whopping run differential of +121 which is only topped by the LA Dodgers. 

Taking a look at Minnesota team leaders and Jorge Polanco is responsible for most of the damage.  With a .311 batting average, .367 on base percentage and 115 hits, he is setting the tone for that highly rated offense.  Max Kepler is leading with 23 home runs, while Eddie Rosario with 60 rbi’s is the team leader.  

Michael Pineda (6-4, 4.56 era) has won his last two starts and 4 of his last 5 decisions.  In his most recent outing he went 6 innings, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits, while striking out 9 in a 7-4 vs Texas. 

He has done a nice job in the back end of the Twin’s rotation. Pineda has only faced the Mets twice in his career. He is 2-0 with a sparkling  0.69 era against them, but those starts were in 2015 when he pitched for the Yankees.

I am not sure how you do not take the Twins.

Unless the Mets have someone named DeGrom or Syndergaard throwing, I do not like their chances coming into Minnesota and escaping with a victory.  Cleveland right before the All-Star break was applying some pressure to the Twins, but Minnesota knocked them down a step winning the series in Cleveland. 

Minnesota still needs to keep playing well. In addition to fending off Cleveland. They would love to finish ahead of Houston & New York in the American League.  This is the type of game you do not want to lose.

Unless they sleepwalk and just go through the motions, I do not see a problem winning this game. Just make sure Pete Alonso does not beat you and you should be good to go.  Take the Twins to take the opening game of this series.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Minnesota Twins -133

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