MLB Betting Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins – Tuesday, June 11, 2019

by Jun 11, 2019Baseball

Matchup at a Glance

Where: Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Date & Time: Tuesday, June 11, 2019 at 8:10 PM ET
Moneyline: Twins -170, Mariners +158 
Over/Under Total: 9.5 -110 

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The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins open up a three-game series in Minnesota after both getting an off day yesterday. There will be plenty of firepower in this series as the two teams are first and second in home runs. The teams combined for 10 homers on Sunday.

Mike Leake (5-6, 4.30 ERA) takes the mound against Martin Perez (7-2, 3.72 ERA). When the two teams squared off in Seattle earlier this year, the Twins took three of four, outscoring the Mariners 40-18. Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz has homered in four straight games.

He needs one more to tie Harmon Killebrew's team record. Seattle's Edwin Encarnacion is now the AL home run leader after hitting two Sunday, including the 400th of his career.

The Twins are the favorite at -170, and the over/under is 9.5.

Starting To Surge

Seattle enters at 28-41 and is 15-19 on the road. The Mariners have won three of their last five following a five-game losing streak.

Mike Leake is 2-0 in his career against Minnesota with a 4.32 ERA. The veteran righty is coming off his best start of the season. He threw a complete game six-hit, one-run performance against the AL West-leading Astros. Leake's WHIP of 1.27 isn't all that bad, but his tendency for giving up the long ball might be a real problem against a team that hits a lot of them.


Seattle has hit Perez well in the past. In 103 plate appearances, they have an OPS of .841. Tim Beckham is 5 for 12 with two doubles, and Kyle Seager is 17 for 52 with four homers. Against right-handed pitching, Seattle has hit 96 homers and has an OPS of .776.

The Mariners have JP Crawford, Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon, Connor Sadzeck and Sam Tuivailala on the IL.

Still Cruising

The Twins lead the AL Central at 43-21 and are 19-9 at home. Minnesota has won three of its last four and has a league-best 10.5-game lead in the division.

Left-hander Martin Perez is 8-5 with a 3.26 ERA in 22 appearances against Seattle. Perez's WHIP is actually worse than Leake's at 1.42, but he has done a good job of limiting homers. He has only given up five in 65 1/3 innings. His last three outings have been a little concerning. He has only gone 12 1/3 innings, giving up 18 hits, eight walks, and 13 runs.

The Twins shouldn't have any problem scoring off of Leake. They have an OPS of 1.002 in 77 plate appearances. Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Marwin Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz, Jason Castro, and Jonathan Schoop all have OPSs of 1.000 or above. Cruz and Gonzalez both have homers, and all of them have at least one extra-base hit off Leake. That group has combined to go 22 of 45 with five doubles and two homers.

Minnesota is fairly healthy, with only Adalberto Mejia on the IL.

The Pick

Both pitchers have struggled against their opponents in the past, and Perez is coming off his roughest patch of his season. We like the homer-happy teams to continue to hit. We like this to be a high-scoring game, with Minnesota's offense being too much to overcome for Seattle. The Twins just have too many guys who have hit Leake well in the past. We like the over 9.5, and Minnesota at -170 in tonight's matchup.


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