MLB Betting Preview: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Friday, July 5, 2019

by Jul 5, 2019Baseball

Matchup at a Glance

Where: Citi Field in Flushing, NY
When: Friday, July 5, 2019 at 7:10 PM
Moneyline: New York Mets -195
Total: 8.5

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The teams open a 3-game series before the all-star break. The Phillies need to turn things around entering the break. 

They have lost 6 of their last 7 series. Fortunately for the Phillies, the only team they won a series against was the Mets. 

The Phillies swept New York in a 4-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Dating back to June 10th The Mets have the worst record in the NL, 2nd worst is the Phillies.

Philadelphia sends Vince Velasquez (2-5, 4.73 ERA) to the mound to counter Jacob DeGrom (4-7, 3.32 ERA). DeGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, enters on a streak of 6 straight quality starts. New York has managed to win just one of those starts.

New York is the favorite at -195, and the over/under is 8.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have a record of 45-42 and are 18-25 on the road. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games and have fallen into 3rd place in the NL East.

Velasquez has struggled this year. He is making his 4th straight start after being used out of the bullpen. He has a WHIP of 1.42 and has given up 12 homers in only 51 1/3 innings. In his previous 3 starts he has combined for 11 2/3 innings allowing 9 rungs. In his career against the Mets Velasquez is 2-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 9 starts.

In 156 plate appearances against DeGrom the Phillies have a combined OPS of .653. Bryce Harper has had some success going 10 for 31 with 2 doubles and 2 homers. Andrew Knapp is 2 for 5 with a double and a triple, and Sean Rodriguez is 1 for 3 with a double. No one else has an OPS over .800.

Philadelphia has Juan Nicasio on the IL and Mickey Moniak is listed as day-to-day.

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New York Mets

The Mets enter at 39-48 and are 22-17 at home. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games.

DeGrom still has the big strikeout numbers, but hasn't been nearly as dominant as last year. He has stuck out 128 in 103 innings but has allowed 13 homers compared to only 10 all of last year.

His WHIP is 1.11 compared to .91 in his Cy Young winning season. DeGrom is 7-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his career against the Mets.

The New York hitters are licking their lips to get to Velasquez. They have an OPS of 1.022 in 64 plate appearances. Michael Conforto leads the charge going 6 for 14 with 3 homers. Robinson Cano, Amed Rosario and Jeff McNeil all have OPS's above 1.000 against the righty. Rookie sensation Pete Alonso has never faced him, but it would seem to be a favorable match-up for him as well.

New York has J.D. Davis listed as day-to-day. No one else is listed on the injury report.

The Pick

The Mets don't often get to play the role of favorite against the Phillies but this pitching match-up dictates that they do. Velasquez has been a disappointment to say the least, and while DeGrom hasn't been lights out like 2018, he is by far the better pitcher.

While the Mets record is not impressive they have been really good at home this year at 5 games over .500. DeGrom has also dominated the Phillies in his career. All signs point to the Mets in this game. The over 8 looks good as well with the Mets having hit Velasquez well in the past. We like the Mets at -195 and the over 8.

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