MLB Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres – Friday, June 21, 2019

by Jun 21, 2019Baseball

Matchup at a Glance

Where: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA
When: Friday, June 21, 2019 at 7:05 PM
Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates -115
Total: 8.5

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The San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates start a three-game series on Friday. Both teams had the day off Thursday after 8-7 wins on Wednesday.

San Diego is coming off a sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers and is back above .500, while Pittsburgh split a two-game set with Detroit and is in last place in the National League Central.

San Diego sends lefty Eric Lauer (5-6, 4.60 ERA) to the mound against Joe Musgrove (4-7, 4.87 ERA).

The teams met earlier this season in San Diego with the Pirates taking three of four. Both pitchers are coming off rough outings. Lauer gave up five runs and 10 hits in only 2 2/3 innings, and Musgrove gave up six runs and 10 hits in only four innings.

The Pirates are slight favorites at -115, and the over/under is 8.5.

Road Woes

The Padres come into the series at 38-37 and are 17-17 away from home. They have won four in a row and five of their last six.

Lauer has struggled away from home this season. He has a 7.81 ERA in 27 2/3 innings. Earlier this year against Pittsburgh, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up seven hits but only one earned run. In his career, he is 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA against Pittsburgh.

In 36 combined at-bats against Musgrove, San Diego is hitting above .300. Hunter Renfroe, who has been red hot with five homers in the last week, is 2 for 4 with a homer, Manny Machado is 3 for 9 with three doubles, and Eric Hosmer is 3 for 6. As a team, the Padres have an OPS of .725 against right-handed pitching this year.

The Padres have DiNelson Lamet, Franchy Cordero and Jose Castillo all on the 60-day IL.


Getting Better

The Pirates enter at 33-40 and are 14-19 at home. Pittsburgh has won three of five after a seven-game losing streak.

Musgrove has given up three or more earned runs in each of his last five starts after going seven innings and allowing only one hit against Arizona in the middle of May. We have excluded his start against Atlanta, where he only went 2/3 of an inning due to being ejected.

He has not been as good at home as on the road. He has an ERA of 5.71 at PNC Park this year in 34 2/3 innings. The young righty has had good success against San Diego in his career. In two starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA.

Pirates hitters haven't exactly lit Lauer up in their limited opportunities. Kevin Newman and Josh Bell are the only Pittsburgh players with OPS's above .700. Newman is 2 for 3 with a double, and Bell is 4 for 9 with a double. No Pirates player has hit a home run off Lauer. On the year, Pittsburgh has struggled against lefties with a team OPS of only .676.

The Pirates have Lonnie Chisenhall, Francisco Cervelli, and Jameson Taillon on the IL. Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz are both listed as day-to-day.

The Pick

While Musgrove's career numbers against San Diego look good, that isn't against a lot of the current players. The current team has hit him well, and with his struggles at home, we like this matchup for the Padres. The only problem is that Lauer has been awful away from PetCo.

The fact that Pittsburgh has an OPS under .700 against lefties this year should help bring down Lauer's ERA by night's end. San Diego is 22-16 as the underdog this year, and the Pirates have struggled when they are the favorite at 8-14. We like that trend to continue tonight. We like San Diego at +115, and we really like the over 8.5.

Spooky Express Free Pick – SD Padres +115

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