Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Betting Preview – June 17, 2025
It’s a mid-June interleague showdown as the Arizona Diamondbacks (36–35) roll into Rogers Centre to face the Toronto Blue Jays (38–33). Both teams sit right above .500, each trying to solidify playoff relevance before the All-Star break. And tonight? It’s a battle of righties—Brandon Pfaadt for the D‑backs versus Chris Bassitt for the Jays.
Matchup Snapshot
| Team | Record | ATS | Over/Under | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | 36–35 | 33–38 | 33–33–5 | 4–6 |
| Blue Jays | 38–33 | 42–29 (MLB-best) | ~27–28 | 5–5 |
Toronto leads the all-time head-to-head series 13–12, with the last matchup being a dramatic 8–7 Jays win in July 2024. Recent data has this one circled for fans and bettors alike.
Pitching Matchup
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)
- 8–4, 5.50 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 70.1 IP, 55 K
- 7.1 K/9, hard-hit rate 52.8% – vulnerable to big contact
- Recent 7-game stretch: 7.80 ERA, 39 H, 26 ER over 30 IP
Pfaadt has innings durability but a glaring issue: too many barrels. His stuff gets hit hard and often making him a volatile betting play.
Chris Bassitt (TOR)
- 7–3, 3.70 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 80.1 IP, 78 K
- 8.7 K/9, hard-hit rate only 34.7%
- Home ERA: 2.48 in 40 IP; 11–2 ATS when he starts
Bassitt continues to quietly be one of Toronto’s most bankable starters limiting contact, eating innings, and showing up strong at home.
Betting Market
Offshore sportsbook odds:
- Moneyline: Toronto –124 to –130 (52–55% implied win probability)
- Run Line: TOR –1.5 (+160), ARI +1.5 (–194)
- Total: 8.5 to 9 runs (Over juiced at –115 in most spots)
Trends to Watch
Arizona:
- 4–2 ATS last six games
- 2–0 ML as underdogs recently
- Games have gone Over in 6 of last 10
Toronto:
- 42–29 ATS overall – top ATS team in MLB
- 11–2 ATS in Bassitt starts
- 4 of last 5 games hit the Over
- Over in 7 of last 10 matchups vs NL West
Prediction & Best Bets
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays ML (–124 to –130)
Chris Bassitt has been nearly automatic at home, and Toronto’s overall ATS record is elite. Pfaadt, on the other hand, allows a dangerous amount of hard contact and against a Jays team that thrives at home, that’s a bad recipe. Bassitt’s consistency, Toronto’s strong betting metrics, and Arizona’s uneven recent form make this a clean moneyline play.
Alternate/Bonus Play: Over 8.5 Runs
With Pfaadt’s elevated ERA and WHIP, and both lineups showing signs of offensive rhythm, this total leans Over-friendly. Especially with 7 of Toronto’s last 10 games surpassing totals, and Arizona trending that way as well.
Final Call
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML
Lean: Over 8.5
Score Prediction: Toronto 6 – Arizona 4
If you’re playing tight, stick to the moneyline. Feeling riskier? Parlay it with the Over for a solid +250+ range payout. Whatever your angle, Bassitt and Toronto have the betting edge tonight.