Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks

Gametime: 7:10 p.m. ET | Location: Citi Field, New York | Broadcast: SNY, Bally Sports South
Heritage Sports Odds: Mets –112 | Braves –110 | Over/Under: 8.5 (O: –119 / U: –101)

The Braves and Mets are about to wrap up a 4 game set that’s been anything but predictable. After a dominant stretch by Atlanta rattling off five straight wins against the Mets over two series New York finally snapped back with a 7–3 win on Wednesday, thanks to a pair of bombs from Juan Soto and some crafty bullpen management. And now, with the season series tipping back toward a knife’s edge, both clubs are eyeing tonight’s finale not just for pride, but for playoff posturing in the NL East.

This one isn’t just about the numbers. It’s about momentum, control, and what happens when two teams with playoff ambitions meet with chips on their shoulders. Bettors are circling this matchup like hawks—and with good reason. Let’s break it all down.

Team Trends: Records, Run Lines & Totals

Atlanta Braves (37–42)

ATS: 35–44 overall; 17–24 ATS on the road
Totals: 31–42–6 to the Over
Current form: 5 wins in last 7; won 6 of last 7 vs. Mets

New York Mets (47–34)

ATS: 42–38; 28–12 at Citi Field
Totals: 32–46 to the Over; Under hitting at 59% clip
Moneyline: –112 tonight; implied win probability ~53%
Current form: Just 2 wins in last 12, but solid bounce-back yesterday

The Braves are quietly building a better case for bettors despite their sub-.500 record. They’ve looked sharp recently, especially against the Mets winning five of the last six head-to-head matchups before yesterday’s stumble. The Mets, meanwhile, remain one of the best teams in baseball ATS, especially at home, but their recent stretch has been troubling, dropping 10 of their last 12 outright.

Starting Pitchers: Who’s Got the Edge?

Grant Holmes – Atlanta Braves (RHP)

Record: 4–6
ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.22
K/9: ~10.3
BB/9: ~4.1
Strengths: Excellent strikeout rate; increasingly trusted with innings
Weaknesses: Elevated walk rate; prone to giving up long balls

Holmes is the kind of pitcher who gets swing-and-miss stuff without elite velocity. He’s been an underrated force on the mound for Atlanta this year, despite an unflattering 4–6 record. His control can waver especially deep into games but when he’s on, his changeup makes batters look foolish. His WHIP is respectable at 1.22, but the high walk rate (4.1 BB/9) is something to monitor. The Mets’ patient hitters might force him into high-leverage jams.

Griffin Canning – New York Mets (RHP)

Record: 7–3
ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.41
K/9: ~8.2
Recent form: ERA of 6.75 over his last five starts
Strengths: Capable of going deep into games; excellent early-season stretch
Weaknesses: Loss of command; walks spiking; getting pulled early in recent outings

Canning started the season on a tear (2.47 ERA through May), but things have unraveled since June hit. His walk rate has ballooned to nearly 7 BB/9 over his last five starts, and he’s failed to get through five innings in three of those. Against the Braves who feast on tired bullpens this could spell trouble.

Odds, Probabilities & Market Reads

Moneyline: Braves -110 / Mets –112
Run line: Braves –1.5 (+149) / Mets +1.5 (–178)
Total: 8.5 runs (Over –119 / Under –101)
Win Probability (according to models):
- Our Model: 50% Braves / 50% Mets
- NumberFire: 56.1% Mets
- Consensus Vegas Odds: Slight lean to Mets at –112 (implies ~53% probability)

This is essentially a coin flip in the market but you’re getting plus-money on Atlanta. That alone gives Braves bettors a juicy edge. FanDuel and DraftKings have hovered around Mets –112, while respected prediction models remain split.

Recent Head-to-Head

June 17: Braves 5, Mets 4
June 18: Braves 5, Mets 0
June 19: Braves 7, Mets 1
June 23: Braves 3, Mets 2
June 24: Braves 7, Mets 4
June 25: Mets 7, Braves 3

The Braves have owned the season series, winning five of six before Wednesday. Their average margin of victory? A commanding 3.6 runs. What’s made the difference? Depth, timely hitting, and a bullpen that’s stepped up when needed. Still, the Mets snapped the streak thanks to Juan Soto’s fireworks and a timely shake-up in the batting order.

Best Bets for Tonight

Pick: Braves Moneyline (-110)

This is a value pick. Atlanta’s recent form, Holmes’ upside, and Canning’s current command issues make this a high-upside play. Models don’t clearly favor either side.

Secondary Play: Under 8.5 (–101)

Both teams have hit the Under consistently all season. With Holmes’ ability to limit runs and Canning due for some regression to his mean, this one could stay tight. Even if the bullpens come in early, both sides have shown they can keep games under wraps late.