Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Betting Preview & Prediction – June 25, 2026
Jake Thompson
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Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Game Info
| Matchup | Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | June 25, 2026 |
| Time | 7:10 PM ET |
| Location | Citi Field (Flushing, Queens, NY) |
| How to Watch | SNY, Marquee Sports Network (plus MLB.TV out-of-market) |
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Full Odds
| Market | Chicago Cubs | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -108 | -108 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+152) | +1.5 (-184) |
| Total (8.5) | Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (-108) |
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Team Stats
| Stat (2026) | Chicago Cubs | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 43-37 | 34-46 |
| OPS | .740 | .672 |
| Home Runs | 92 | 86 |
| Runs Scored | 375 | 320 |
| Team ERA | 4.32 | 4.12 |
| Team WHIP | 1.24 | 1.28 |
| Pitching Strikeouts | 616 | 710 |
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Starting Pitcher Stats
| Pitcher | Hand | G | W-L | ERA | IP | WHIP | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd (CHC) | LHP | 5 | 2-1 | 6.00 | 24.0 | 1.29 | 31 |
| Freddy Peralta (NYM) | RHP | 16 | 5-6 | 4.83 | 85.2 | 1.39 | 83 |
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Recent Form & Pitching Notes
Chicago Cubs (43-37): Beat the Mets 10-5 in the June 24 doubleheader nightcap. Shota Imanaga went 5.1 IP with 4 ER allowed, then the bullpen covered 3.2 innings (Hollowell/Milner/Thornton/Webb) to close it out. Offensively it was Nico Hoerner (3-for-5) setting the table, Pedro Ramírez going 3-for-5 with 2 RBI and scoring four times, and Dansby Swanson driving in four with three hits.
New York Mets (34-46): Dropped that same June 24 game 10-5 while committing six errors (the story of the night). Sean Manaea lasted 3.0 IP and gave up 4 runs (3 ER), forcing six bullpen innings; Huascar Brazobán was a bright spot with 2.0 scoreless and 4 Ks, but the back end still got messy (Devin Williams gave up three runs with 0 ER attached). The Mets did hit for power (homers from Francisco Alvarez, A.J. Ewing, Mark Vientos, and Bo Bichette) but couldn’t string anything together after the sixth.
Pitching context tonight: Boyd’s been inactive for weeks and his last MLB line is dated (last start listed May 3), so you’re projecting workload and sharpness. Peralta’s recent form is the bigger red flag: his last three starts include 2.2 IP/10 ER at Philadelphia (June 20) and 6.0 IP/6 ER vs St. Louis (June 9), and his last seven games show a 7.18 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs have won 11 straight games vs NL East teams under .500
- Chicago Cubs have covered the run line in 5 of their last 6 games
- Chicago Cubs games have gone Over in 6 straight
- Citi Field O/U this season: 22-13-4
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Breakdown
The line’s telling you “coin flip,” but Chicago’s profile is cleaner: better season offense (OPS edge and more runs/HR), and they’re not dependent on one specific scoring path. The Boyd angle is the only reason the Cubs aren’t priced higher, limited 2026 volume plus the return-to-rotation question but the Mets are walking into this with a taxed pen (six innings needed last night) and Peralta trending the wrong way (damage + traffic; that 7.18 ERA/1.62 WHIP last seven isn’t noise).
Total-wise, 8.5 feels light given (1) Peralta’s current volatility, (2) New York’s power keeping them live to score quickly even when the base offense is shaky, and (3) the likelihood Boyd doesn’t give you a full starter’s workload. If you’re betting a side, Cubs ML is the lean; the better value is letting the pitching and bullpen context do the work on the number.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Best Bet
Over 8.5 (-112) (3 out of 5 units)
Peralta’s last seven-game run is blowup territory, and this game sets up for early baserunners plus bullpen innings on both sides.
Predicted Score
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Chicago Cubs 5, New York Mets 4.
