Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction & Odds

There’s something about Cubs vs. Cardinals that goes beyond standings and stat sheets. It’s a rivalry loaded with grudges, grit, and momentum swings. And tonight’s game at Busch Stadium isn’t just another tick on the calendar it’s a battle that could sway the shape of the NL Central.

Chicago (46–33) has been wobbling of late, dropping four of its last five games and surrendering runs at a breakneck pace. Meanwhile, St. Louis (44–36) is red hot winners in seven of their last eight and creeping up fast in the division standings. After two explosive games to open this series an 8–2 blowout followed by a 7–8 heartbreaker the Cardinals now have a chance to pull within striking distance of first place.

Both teams will send veteran arms to the mound with a lot to prove. For bettors, the mix of inconsistent bullpens, offensive surges, and home-road splits makes this a juicy slate full of angles.

Let’s dig into the complete picture: odds, trends, pitching breakdowns, betting data, and our best bet for tonight’s showdown.

Team Overview and Recent Form

Chicago Cubs

Record: 46–33
Last 10 Games: 4–6
Against the Spread (ATS): 38–39–0
Over/Under: 42–35
Moneyline ROI: +5.9%
Recent Performance: Lost 4 of last 5, allowed 54 runs in last 6 games
Road Record: Just 1–5 SU in last 6 away games

What started as a promising summer stretch has taken a concerning turn. The Cubs’ pitching particularly in the bullpen has cratered, and their run prevention has completely unraveled. Even during their 10–7 win over Seattle last week, they coughed up 6 runs. They’ve been consistent favorites and delivered value on the moneyline, but their ATS record and high-scoring tendencies hint at underlying volatility.

Despite the recent slump, this team has depth in the lineup and a solid starter on the mound. The question is whether they can bounce back and quiet a Cardinals lineup that’s cooking.

St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 44–36
Last 10 Games: 8–2
Against the Spread (ATS): 45–35–0
Over/Under: 43–34–3
Home Form: 4–1 SU in last 5 home games vs Cubs
Recent Trend: 7–1 SU in last 8 games

Talk about turning a corner. After a sluggish spring, the Cardinals have caught fire. Their offense is stringing together timely hits, and their bullpen though still shaky at times has done enough to protect leads. They’re especially dangerous at home, with 27 of their 41 home games going Over the total and a strong 4–1 SU mark against Chicago at Busch.

St. Louis also thrives in the underdog role. As dogs, they’re 24–20 SU a strong return on investment for a team that rarely gets blown out.

Pitching Matchup: Boyd vs. Fedde

Matthew Boyd (Cubs, LHP)

Record: 6–3
ERA: 2.84
WHIP: 1.14
Strikeouts: 79 in 85.2 IP
Recent Form: 3–1 with 2.90 ERA over last 7 starts

Boyd is about as reliable as it gets right now. He’s delivering quality starts with elite command and a walk rate that keeps hitters honest. He limits base runners and doesn’t give up big innings. But there’s a caveat he’s prone to the long ball and hasn’t been quite as sharp on the road (ERA above 4.00 away from Wrigley). Still, he’s the most trustworthy arm the Cubs can send out at this point.

Strengths:

Great control (K/BB ~3.76)
Keeps WHIP low and innings long
Tough against right-handed batters

Weaknesses:

Home run susceptibility (10 HR in 85.2 IP)
Slight dip in performance on the road

Erick Fedde (Cardinals, RHP)

Record: 3–6
ERA: 3.54
WHIP: 1.30
Strikeouts: 55 in 84 IP
Home ERA: 1.94 across 13 starts

Fedde doesn’t flash electric stuff, but his results at home are undeniable. With a sub‑2.00 ERA at Busch, he’s mastered the art of inducing ground balls and letting his defense work. The downside? His strikeout rate is one of the lowest among starting pitchers (K/9 ~5.9), which gives powerful teams like Chicago chances to square him up.

Strengths:

Reliable home performer
Limits hard contact and walks
Pitch-to-contact success story

Weaknesses:

Very low K rate
Needs strong defense behind him
Lacks overpowering stuff

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cubs –136 (≈57.4%), Cardinals +114 (≈46.7%)
Run Line: Cubs –1.5 (+122), Cardinals +1.5 (–146)
Over/Under: 9 runs (Over –100 to +101, Under –120)

Trends to Know

Cubs:
- Over is 6–0 in their last 6 road games
- 1–5 SU in last 6 road games
- 8 of last 9 vs. Cardinals have gone Over
Cardinals:
- 4–1 SU at home vs Cubs (last 5)
- Over in 8 of last 9 Cubs matchups
- 27 of 41 home games have gone Over this season

Prediction & Best Bet

All signs point to another tightly contested matchup. While Boyd has the edge on paper, the Cardinals’ recent surge and Fedde’s home dominance level the playing field. The Over continues to be the most consistent betting trend between these two squads and even with strong starters, the recent bullpens and offensive hot streaks make it hard to argue against it.

Pick:

Over 9 runs (–100) – Both teams are on Over streaks, and the H2H trend is overwhelming.
Lean: Cubs ML (–136) – Boyd is the steadier option, but with caution given the Cards’ home heat.

Final Score Prediction: Cubs 6 – Cardinals 5
Plenty of runs, late-inning drama, and a series that continues to deliver.