Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Game 5 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Snell Looks to Rebound as Series Tied 2–2

Here we go again: Blue Jays–Dodgers, Game 5, under the Dodger Stadium lights with the series tied 2–2 and first pitch set for 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX. If you like high-leverage baseball and finding edges in tight markets this one has plenty to unpack.

The headline numbers for bettors are straightforward. As of this morning, the Dodgers are a sizable home favorite in the -200 to -205 range (Blue Jays around +165 to +170). The total sits at 8.

Matchup

It’s a Game 1 pitching rematch: Blake Snell (LAD) vs. rookie Trey Yesavage (TOR). Toronto tattooed Snell in the opener (five runs in five-plus), but that was the outlier in an otherwise dominant postseason run for the two-time Cy Young winner three prior playoff starts: 21 IP, 2 ER, 27 K. Yesavage, 22 years old and making just his eighth MLB start, has handled the moment with poise; he allowed two runs over four innings last time out, but three walks hint at command risk against an elite on-base lineup.

After the 18-inning epic in Game 3 that LA won on a Freddie Freeman walk-off (and after Shohei Ohtani reached base a record nine times), Toronto reset the series with a 6–2 win in Game 4. That result not only evens the ledger but also nudges bullpen freshness back toward “normal,” important in a post-marathon stretch. Historically, in a best-of-seven tied 2–2, the Game 5 winner takes the series about 68% of the time so we should expect urgency in how managers deploy arms.

Probable pitchers & bullpens

Blake Snell, LHP (Dodgers): 3–1, 2.42 ERA this postseason.. He missed time with a shoulder issue during the year but has been nails in October aside from Game 1. Expect a shorter leash and heavy left-right matchup management behind him. LA’s high-leverage ‘pen avoided its very top end in Game 4; Rōki Sasaki (moved to the closer role) was not used, while multiple mid-leverage arms worked back-to-back and may be down or at least limited.

Trey Yesavage, RHP (Blue Jays): 2–1, 4.26 ERA in the postseason with 27 K impressive for a rookie whose first road playoff start comes tonight in a hostile park. The stuff plays, but the walks (and the Dodgers’ patience) are the stress point. Toronto’s bullpen benefited from a cleaner Game 4 they stayed off a couple of key arms and can lean on Seranthony Domínguez/Jeff Hoffman if they grab a mid-game lead.

Handicap & prediction

From a pure numbers standpoint, LA’s price bakes in Snell’s ceiling, home edge, and the greater penalty on a rookie’s first road playoff start. Yesavage has the raw stuff to miss bats, but the Dodgers’ lineup is relentless at extending counts and punishing free passes. If the walk rate creeps north of ~9% again, Roberts can get into his leverage bullpen before the third time through.

Snell’s pitch mix should look different than in Game 1. Expect more early-count breaking balls to righties (Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Schneider) and a heavier usage of the wipeout slider/sweeper when ahead, with fewer put-me fastballs in run counts. If Snell gets 15–18 outs and hands it to a fresher back end (Sasaki available), LA’s win probability climbs quickly. On the Blue Jays’ side, Vlad Jr. is squarely in MVP-mode; against a lefty with high fastball traits, his HR/RBI prop prices remain live. But without a fully healthy Springer (and with potential late-game defensive substitutions for Bichette), Toronto’s margin on the road narrows.

Pick: Dodgers moneyline (to -205); lean Under 8 at standard juice. I price LA closer to -210 in this spot with a median total around 7.6 runs. If you want plus money, Dodgers -1.5 is viable as a small add-on given the underlying run distribution and the way Roberts can empty the bullpen in a pivotal Game 5. For props, small sprinkles on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record an RBI (hot form, lineup slot, and platoon advantage) and Shohei Ohtani total bases Over make sense shop numbers and wait for confirmed lineups.

Bottom line: With the series now a best-of-three and Game 6 guaranteed back in Toronto, tonight’s leverage is massive. The market is asking you to pay a tax on LA’s advantages home field, veteran ace, and pen alignment and I’m willing to lay it. Dodgers take a tight one, something like 4–3, behind a Snell rebound and just enough late offense to cover chalk, with Ohtani or Freeman in the middle of it.