Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Picks (Sept 8, 2025)

A four-game set in Philly with real stakes: the Phillies lead the NL East, the Mets are seven games back, and both clubs are jockeying for playoff positioning. As of Monday morning, Philadelphia sits 83–60 and New York is 76–67.

Online sportsbooks have this one close to a pick’em. Several outlets list the Mets in the small-favorite range (roughly -115 to -120), Phillies around even money, and a total of 9. That aligns with ESPN’s pregame page (Mets -119/Phillies -101; O/U 9).

Weather should be neutral-to-friendly for hitters – around 70°F, minimal wind, no rain in the forecast at first pitch. Citizens Bank can play small when the air is still, which subtly nudges run-scoring expectations.

Game Information

• Date & Time: September 8, 2025, 6:45 p.m. EDT.
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
• Broadcast: MLB Network, NBCS-PH, SNY.

Team Standings and Stats

• Philadelphia Phillies: 83-60 overall, first in NL East, 45-23 at home, team batting avg. .258.
• New York Mets: 76-67 overall, second in NL East, 31-40 away, 197 home runs this season.
• Season Series: Mets lead 7-2 against the Phillies this year.

Pitching Matchup

• Mets Starter: Nolan McLean (4-0, 1.37 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 28 strikeouts).
• Phillies Starter: Aaron Nola (3-8, 6.78 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 72 strikeouts).

That’s the headline duel, and it’s a study in contrast. McLean has been electric since arriving, flashing swing-and-miss stuff and poise that belies the rookie tag. Nola, meanwhile, is trying to steady himself after a rough post-IL stretch. These are the listed probables from the teams’ pages and ESPN’s preview.

Bullpen notes

New York just activated high-leverage righty Reed Garrett, which helps deepen the bridge to the late innings in a game likely to feature quick hooks. Philly’s back end has been solid overall of late, but depth has been tested by a few recent nicks and shuffles.

Top Performers

• Mets: Juan Soto (38 HR, .262 AVG, 93 RBI), Pete Alonso (33 HR, 113 RBI, .267 AVG), Francisco Lindor (.268 AVG, .342 OBP).
• Phillies: Kyle Schwarber (49 HR, 120 RBI, .242 AVG), Trea Turner (.305 AVG, 17 hits in last 43 ABs).

Key Betting Trends

Phillies Trends

• Phillies have won their last 11 home games following a loss.
• Phillies tend to lead after the first three to five innings when playing home games after a loss vs. winning-record teams.
• Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six home games against NL opponents following a loss.

Mets Trends

• Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine as favorites vs. NL opponents following a road loss.
• Mets have gone 4-5 in their last nine as moneyline favorites and are 4-6 against the spread in their previous 10 games.
• Mets lead the season series 7-2 against the Phillies, but have lost three of their last four games overall entering this matchup.

Pitcher Angles

• Mets starter Nolan McLean: 4-0, 1.37 ERA, performing well on the road.
• Phillies starter Aaron Nola: 3-8, 6.78 ERA, has won only once in his last five starts vs. the Mets; however, career stats vs. Mets show more balance (10-10, 3.54 ERA).

Total Runs Insights

• Odds and trends favor a high-scoring game with over 9 runs predicted (score prediction Phillies 6, Mets 5).
• Mets games have gone over in half of their last 10 matchups.

Mets vs Phillies Pick & Prediction

Mets moneyline (play to -120).

I’m buying the pitching split. McLean’s fastball/slider combo has missed barrels and, importantly, limited free passes the Phillies do the most damage when traffic builds ahead of Schwarber/Harper. Nola is fully capable of a vintage, curveball-led reset, but his recent post-IL profile elevated ERA, loud contact when behind in counts is not the profile you want against a patient Mets order that can stack long at-bats. Add in the possibility that Turner is limited or out, and the matchup tilts just enough toward New York to justify laying a modest price.

Lean: Over 9 (only at -105 or better). The weather isn’t a boost, but Citizens Bank doesn’t need much to play lively, and a couple of crooked innings one off Nola early, one off middle relief late gets you close. That said, if you’re already on Mets ML, no need to double up unless you can find a discounted Over; McLean’s efficiency is the roadblock to a full overs position.