Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction & Betting Preview – August 28, 2025

Game Overview

• Teams: Miami Marlins (62-71, third in NL East) vs. New York Mets (72-61, second in NL East).
• Venue & Time: Citi Field, Queens, NY; 7:10 p.m. EDT.
• Coverage: MLB Network, SNY, and FDSFL.
• Season Series: Mets lead 4-2 in previous matchups this season.

It’s Thursday, August 28, and baseball fans are in for a showdown at Citi Field as the New York Mets (72‑61), riding a solid current home winning streak, welcome the Miami Marlins (62‑71) in an early-evening NL East tilt. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, with TV coverage on MLB Network, SNY, and FDSFL.

From a betting perspective, the Mets are heavily favored, with moneyline odds around –250, while the Marlins sit at approximately +205 .The over/under total is pegged at 8.5 runs at Bookmaker, and New York carries a –1.5 run-line advantage.

Behind the bump, the Mets are handing the ball to Clay Holmes (11‑6, 3.60 ERA) a dependable arm who’s logged 137 innings and 109 strikeouts this season. Opposite him is Marlins rookie Adam Mazur, a relative unknown who’s had a brief, rocky showing with a 6.35 ERA in his limited work.

Game Lines & Trends

• Moneyline: Mets -250 | Marlins +205
• Spread: Mets -1.5 (-126) | Marlins +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122, U: -100)

The Mets have excelled as favorites this year, winning more than 66% of their games when favored on the moneyline, and have covered the runline in high percentage games when listed as major favorites. The Marlins, meanwhile, have struggled especially when listed as sizable underdogs with a sub-.500 record in this position.

Pitching Matchup

• Marlins Starter: Adam Mazur (0-0, 6.35 ERA in previous outings, 1.59 WHIP, 5 K, 4 BB).
• Mets Starter: Clay Holmes (11-6, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 109 strikeouts, 55 walks).

Recent Performance & Team Stats

• Mets Last 10 Games: 7-3 record, .322 team batting average, 3.93 ERA, outscored opponents by 32 runs.
• Marlins Last 10 Games: 4-6 record, .219 batting average, 4.84 ERA, outscored by 23 runs.
• Standings: Mets on a 3-game win streak, Marlins on a 2-game losing streak.

Miami vs New York Comparison

Notable Players

• Mets:
  • Juan Soto: 16 doubles, 32 home runs, .251 AVG, 79 RBI.
  • Pete Alonso: 29 home runs, .265 AVG, 106 RBI.
  • Mark Vientos: Hot streak in last 10 games (15 for 38, six home runs).
• Marlins:
  • Otto Lopez: .237 AVG, 17 doubles, 11 home runs, 59 RBI.
  • Jakob Marsee: 14 for 39, two triples, three doubles, and a home run in last 10 games.

Best Bets For Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

Best Bet: Mets -1.5 Run Line

With Clay Holmes delivering consistent quality starts at home and the Marlins turning to a pitcher with just 5.2 career MLB innings, there is significant value on the Mets to cover the -1.5 run line. New York’s offense is hot, and their bullpen has backed up starters reliably in recent weeks. Expect the Mets to win comfortably as they push for a postseason spot.

• Recommended Play: Mets -1.5 (-126)

Best Player Prop: Mark Vientos OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Mark Vientos has been swinging a hot bat, recently averaging 1.5 total bases per game and seeing increased plate appearances in the heart of the Mets’ lineup. Facing a struggling rookie starter and a shaky Marlins bullpen, Vientos is a solid candidate to surpass 1.5 total bases with plus odds, making him a great prop choice for this matchup.

• Player Prop: Mark Vientos OVER 1.5 total bases (-145)