Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Game 4 Preview, Odds & Prediction – NLDS Showdown at Wrigley Field (Oct 9, 2025)
Game 4 of the NLDS between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs goes Thursday, October 9, at 8:08 p.m. CT (9:08 p.m. ET) at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The current betting line at MyBookie lists the Brewers as roughly -120 to -125 favorites on the moneyline, with the Cubs around +100 to +104, and the total set at 7 runs.
Game Preview
Series. Chicago stayed alive with a 4–3 win last night behind another Michael Busch leadoff blast and a two-run single from Pete Crow-Armstrong. Milwaukee still leads the NLDS, 2–1. Notably, it’s been a fast-start series: both teams have scored in the first inning of all three games.
Probable arms (expected). Neither club formally named a starter postgame, but all signs point to Freddy Peralta on four days’ rest for Milwaukee and Matthew Boyd on four days’ rest for Chicago. Peralta tied the Brewers’ postseason single-game strikeout mark with 9 K in 5⅔ IP in Game 1. Boyd was rocked in the series opener but has been nails at Wrigley in 2025: 12–1 with a 2.51 ERA in 15 home starts.
Bullpens. Both pens are in workable shape. Chicago’s relievers were kept to 19 pitches or fewer in Game 3; on the Milwaukee side, the Brewers avoided using a few multi-inning options and still have length if they don’t fully commit to Peralta (Aaron Ashby/Robert Gasser among the bulk candidates).
Lineups. If Milwaukee goes righty (Peralta), Chicago likely rolls with the same Game 1/3 order that features Busch leading off and Kyle Tucker in the 3-hole. On the Brewers’ side, the vs-LHP build has Jackson Chourio–Brice Turang–William Contreras–Christian Yelich up top and produced 9 runs in the first two innings of Game 1 and 7 runs by the fourth in Game 2. Also: Busch made a bit of history two leadoff homers in the same playoff series, the first Cub ever to do it and first MLB player to do it in a single series.
Recent meetings & totals. Game lines/closing numbers suggest a slightly run-suppressing market, but all three NLDS games have cleared their totals (G1 9–3, G2 7–3, G3 4–3 with a 6.5 total). At Wrigley, the Cubs have taken 3 of the last 4 vs. Milwaukee (Aug. 19–21 series + Game 3).
Handicapping the game
If it is Peralta vs. Boyd, the game takes on a shape that favors sharper early innings and a more tactical middle. Peralta’s four-seam/slider combo still misses bats at elite clips, and he just proved he can hold this lineup down on “regular” rest by modern postseason standards. Chicago’s counter is a lefty who’s been unusually dominant in this park all year Boyd’s 12–1 home record jumps off the page, and the Cubs’ pen is aligned after a low-stress night.
The push-pull is simple: Milwaukee’s top four right now are more dangerous against left-handed pitching (Contreras/Yelich can neutralize the platoon split to a degree), and the Cubs have been a first-inning buzzsaw but less imposing after the lineup turns over. In fact, eight of Chicago’s 10 runs this series have come in the first. If Boyd survives the top of the first and Peralta settles in, the live total could trend neatly below 7 despite the recent “over” parade.
Betting Pick
Pick: Brewers moneyline (around -120 to -130).
It’s a thin edge, but the combination of Peralta on full rest after a dominant Game 1, a Brewers lineup that’s been comfortable vs. left-handed looks in this series, and enough rested length in the Milwaukee bullpen gives the road favorite a small, real advantage. Chicago’s best path is the same it’s been all week jump Boyd’s start with a quick lead and shorten the game but Peralta’s whiff rate is the kind that can blunt that “first-inning Cubs” trend. I price Milwaukee slightly better than a coin flip here, which is enough to lay a modest moneyline up to about -130.
Total lean: Under 7 (at even or plus money).
Yes, the series is 3-0 to the Over. But that’s largely been first-inning chaos; once settled, both clubs have leaned on sturdy bullpens, and Boyd’s home split (2.51 ERA) plus a locked-in Peralta points to fewer clean scoring chances after the first. If you play the total, I’d consider a live Under after the first (especially if it starts noisy again) rather than a pregame Under 7 that can push easily.